000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient 
between a ridge that extends from the western Gulf of America 
southward to southeastern Mexico and lower pressure associated 
with the ITCZ will continue to support gale-force northerly 
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Mon. Winds
will quickly diminish through the day. Peak seas with these 
winds may reach to near 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft in west 
to northwest swell by Tue afternoon. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Gale-force winds prevail across 
the Papagayo region due to the pressure gradient between high 
pressure centered over the western Gulf of America and relatively
lower pressure associated with the ITCZ. Rough seas accompany 
these winds. These conditions will diminish this afternoon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 02N114W. The ITCZ 
continues from that point to 03N140W. Another surface trough is 
analyzed from 16N114W to 03N115W. Scattered moderate convection 
is with the second trough mainly between 108W-118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Features section above for details.

Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest
to north winds are west of Baja California as well as to the 
southwest of the peninsula, while light and variable winds are 
prevail elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the
Gulf of California. Slight to moderate seas prevail across the 
Gulf. Moderate seas are over the Mexican waters.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event, 
the long-period northwest swell north of 17N and west of 107W 
will decay today. A cold front is expected to move across the 
waters west of Baja California Norte from late Tue into Wed while
weakening. Fresh to strong southeast winds are expected to 
develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tue ahead of 
the cold front. Meanwhile, a set of northwest swell in the wake 
of the front may move through the outermost offshore waters of 
Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed before decaying Wed 
night. Fresh to strong southeast are expected to develop in the 
far northern Gulf of California on Tuesday. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see
the Special Features section above for details.

Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo conditions, fresh to strong NE
winds have developed in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh 
northeast winds and rough seas are over the eastern part of the 
offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the ongoing Gulf of 
Papagayo gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, the strong  
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh 
speeds late Mon night and continue with little change through the
forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge axis prevails across the basin. Latest 
scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light to gentle 
anticyclone winds north of 25N and west of 125W. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure to the 
south associated with the ITCZ is producing fresh to strong trades
from 06N to 15N west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 10
ft in long-period northwest swell mixed with wind generated 
waves, except mixed with northeast to east swell west of about 
128W. Fresh east winds generated from the recent Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event have spread westward to near 
105W.

For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest
swell will slowly subside to around 8 ft through Tue. The trades
over the western half of the area are forecast to diminish some 
late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part 
of the area, and the high pressure that is in place shifts 
eastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northerly winds are 
expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft
in northwest swell. Seas 12 ft and greater are expected along 
and just north of 30N and between 128W and 131W at that time.

$$
ERA