000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W from 03N northward into 
Guatemala, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted over the northern half of the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W from 03N to 16N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 15N between 96W and 104W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 03N to 19N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over the southern half of the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 13N between 126W and 137W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N130W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N130W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection 
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 105W and 114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of 
California as troughing prevails over the Baja California 
Peninsula, and gentle south of there. Slight seas are in the 
Gulf, except higher near the entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico under
weak surface ridging. Moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high pressure
builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to
strong Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens. Farther 
south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through 
late week. Fresh to strong S to SE winds will then develop over 
the northern Gulf of California early on Tue and continue through
midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert Southwest. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the 
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the 
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas 
in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American 
waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through late week as high 
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to 
fresh E winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh N winds may pulse in
the Gulf of Panama by midweek. A new S to SW swell will continue
to propagate through the South American waters through the 
middle of this week, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and
Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1035 mb high pressure well north of the discussion waters near 
43N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades are in the belt from 
10N to 18N. Moderate NE winds are also in the NW corner with 
mainly gentle winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail 
across the waters south of 05N. Moderate seas in mixed swell 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate 
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this 
week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. A new S to SW
swell will propagate through the southern waters over the next 
several days, promoting rough seas south of 05N. A new N swell 
may lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek. 

$$
ERA