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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240933 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0910 UTC Wed Apr 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N90W. The ITCZ begins
near 06N97W and continues to 04N108W to 05N117W, then resumes
from 05N121W to 02N130W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 93W
and 99W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 102W and 106W, 
and within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 125W and 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad high pressure ridge persists over the Baja California 
offshore waters. Recent scatterometer data showed moderate to
locally fresh NW winds over the waters west of Baja California 
Sur. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevailed between 
Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island. In general, gentle 
NW flow will prevail west of Baja California over the next 
several days as weak high pressure develops west of the offshore 
waters. Moderate NW winds are expected between Punta Eugenia and 
Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend.

Gulf of California: Light to moderate winds will prevail across 
the Gulf through Sun with seas generally 3 ft or less. Moderate
to fresh S to SW winds may develop over the northern Gulf Sun 
night ahead of an approaching cold front with seas building to
3-5 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over southern 
Mexico will result in generally light to gentle onshore winds 
across the region through Thu night. Strong N gap winds will 
develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri through Sat as high
pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving 
across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds may pulse to near gale force 
speeds late Fri night with seas building to 10 ft by Sat morning.
Winds will diminish to gentle speeds Sat night and Sun as high
pressure moves eastward and the local pressure gradient relaxes. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf
of Papagayo through tonight with the assistance of nocturnal 
drainage flow. A weakening pressure gradient will allow winds to
diminish to more gentle speeds Thu through Sun. Looking ahead, 
high pressure building north of the region will support moderate 
to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf again on Sun night. 

Gulf of Panama: Moderate N to NE winds will persist across the 
Gulf of Panama through Thu with 4-6 ft seas today becoming 3-5 
ft in mixed SW swell and N to NE wind waves. Then, winds will 
become light through the weekend as the pressure gradient 
relaxes over the region.

Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will 
remain 3-6 ft in S to SW swell as gentle winds prevail across 
the southern waters. By Fri, seas will build to 5-7 ft near the 
Galapagos Islands as a pulse of S to SW swell moves into the 
region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters
with 1027 mb high pressure centered north of the forecast area 
near 35N139W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter data revealed a
swath of fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft roughly from 13N to 
18N west of 137W. Otherwise, moderate trade winds prevail south 
of the ridge with seas less than 8 ft. Elsewhere, a surface
trough extends from 03N120W to 08N117W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring north of this feature roughly
within 120 nm north of a line from 11N121W to 09N114W. 

A low pressure system will weaken the ridge today and tonight, 
and the slackening pressure gradient will result in subsiding 
trade winds and seas. Weak low pressure is expected to develop 
near 28.5N134W by Thu night and remain nearly stationary through 
Fri. Seas will remain less than 8 ft within the associated 
moderate to fresh winds. 

Earlier altimeter data over the southern waters highlighted 7-8
ft seas generally south of 01S and west of 116W. Seas in this
region will remain 7-8 ft through today. Another round of SW 
swell will move into the far southern waters Thu with seas again 
building to 8 ft. Similar wave heights will persist through the 
weekend as SW swell continues impacting the region.

$$
Reinhart