000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122329 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2329 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Updated forecast for Offshore Waters within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest
Colombia southwestward through central Panama and to 08N82W to 
03N91W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N103W to 01N115W 
to 01N125W to 01N130W and to 01N140W. No significant convection 
is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

Latest scatterometer satellite data passes generally depict
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja 
California Norte and the northern part of Baja California Sur. 
Seas of 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell are over these waters of 
Baja California Norte as well as the offshore waters of Baja 
California Sur from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas of 5 
to 7 ft in northwest swell are over the rest of the Baja 
California offshore waters, also over the waters from 17N to 20N 
between 110W and 115W, and over the offshore waters of the Mexican 
states of Colima and Jalisco. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period west 
to northwest swell are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, strong high pressure well northwest of the 
forecast waters will gradually build southeastward toward Baja 
California through the upcoming weekend, and while weakening in 
response to a strong cold front coming in from the west. This next 
front may approach Baja California early next week while weakening, 
followed by another round of large northwest swell. Farther south, 
fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will pulse tonight into 
early Fri afternoon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Strong gap 
winds may again be active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next 
week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas to 8 ft
are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh north 
to northeast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mix
swell are elsewhere over these waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will 
persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region into late Sat. Little 
change is expected with the winds in the Gulf of Panama through Fri, 
before diminishing slightly afterward. Moderate winds and seas will 
persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weakening low pressure of 1018 mb is near 26N126W, with a 
dissipating cold front to 22N140W. An Ascat satellite data pass
from this afternoon shows fresh to strong northeast to east winds
north of the front and northwest of the low pressure from 24N to 29N
west of 126W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell north of
the front, except for higher seas of 10 to 13 ft from 24N to 30N
west of 136W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in large northwest swell are
elsewhere north of 22N and west of about 128W, and 6 to 8 ft in
northwest swell east of 128W. Gentle to moderate winds along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the 1018 mb low pressure will dissipate late 
tonight as it tracks in a general southeastward motion. The fresh 
to strong northeast to east winds will diminish to mostly fresh 
speeds over a swath from 20N to 24N and west of about 120W. Seas 
of 8 to 10 ft in large northwest to north swell will persist 
north of 10N and west of 124W. High pressure will extend across 
the waters north of 20N this weekend, supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds over the deep tropics west of 115W. Seas will 
be 6 to 8 ft north of 10N and west of 115W by then, with moderate
winds and seas elsewhere. A new cold front is forecast to move
into the far northwest part of the area on Sat, followed by fresh 
to strong northwest to north winds. A new set of large long-period 
northwest swell producing seas to the range of 8 to 11 ft will
follow the front through Sun as the front moves eastward over the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. These 8 to 11 ft seas are
forecast to build even further toward the latter part of the weekend.

$$
Aguirre