000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301017
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad, elongated 1007 mb trough of low pressure, Invest Area 
EP95 with a poorly defined center is located near 12N124W, along
a developing monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong NE to E 
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted north of this feature from 
14,5N to 18N between 120W and 312W. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on 
convection. Gradual development of this system is likely during 
the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the middle of this week while the system moves generally 
northwestward and then northward. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending 
its chances of development. This system has a high chance for 
tropical cyclone formation for the next 2 to 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 107W from 16N southward, and moving 
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is flaring up from 05N to 11N between 100W and 113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends westward from near central Panama to 
10N85W to 07N89W. Farther west, a developing monsoon trough 
curves southwestward from 12N121W through EP95 mentioned in the 
Special Features section to 05N140W. An ITCZ runs west-
northwestward from 07N89W to 06N105W, then resumes from 06N109W
to 12N121W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is found near the first ITCZ segment but south of the
first monsoon trough, from 02N to 07N between 79W and 100W, 
including waters near the Colombia coast, and in the far southern
offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is occurring in the vicinity of the developing
monsoon trough from 04N to 17N between 113W and 134W. Scattered
moderate convection is present farther west from 01S to 10N west
of 134W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the northeast
Pacific across 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This 
pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds 
and seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell across the Baja California 
waters, with the highest seas farther west of Baja Norte. Inside
the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds and 
seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the northern Gulf, while 
gentle to moderate S winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft generally 
prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds 
dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to 
near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- 
equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds 
continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to 
near 14N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this area. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southwestward
across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands 
will remain prominent today, then drifting westward and weaken 
slightly through the remainder of the week. This pattern will 
produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through 
Fri, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and 
evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will 
maintain moderate seas, except rough seas for the far western 
offshore waters of Baja Norte through Thu. A narrow channel of 
fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong, and 
sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and 
morning through Sat. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds are also 
expected in the northern Gulf of California until late this 
morning, then become moderate to fresh Tue through Wed morning. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the 
Papagayo region and extending offshore to near 90W and northward
across coastal Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 5 to 7
ft across this area. Satellite scatterometer data from earlier
last night showed moderate to fresh N winds across the Gulf of 
Panama extending southward to near 6N, where seas are 4 to 5 ft.
Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell prevail across
the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 
02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross- 
equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on convection in the
region.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate
to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region through 
the weekend, as a strong ridge persists north of the region. NE 
to E swell generated by these winds are expected to maintain 
moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. 
Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep 
moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off
Ecuador through Thu morning. Periods of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, and across 
the southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through 
this evening, then spreading northward late tonight and Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
Invest Area EP95.

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the northeast
Pacific across 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, outside the area mentioned in
the Special Features section. East of 120W and north of the 
ITCZ, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in 
mixed moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 
6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the
ITCZ to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6
to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S to SE swell prevail elsewhere
south of 04N. 

For the forecast, regardless of development on EP95, a gradual 
increase of winds and seas will continue along the northern 
portion of this area of low pressure this week, as a broad high 
pressure ridge persists north of the area. Outside of this 
system, little changes are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the 
next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both 
winds and seas will occur by Wed.

$$

Chan