698 
AXPZ20 KNHC 291558
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Low (EP98): A well-defined area of low 
pressure located around 1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands continues to produce a limited amount of showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm could form during the next day or 
two as it moves generally westward around 10 mph. This system is 
expected to move into the Central Pacific basin tonight. This 
system has a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours. 

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): A large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 500 miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a 
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next couple of days while the system moves west- 
northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of 
formation within the next 48 hours. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details about these invests.

Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds and rough seas will 
occur this morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a strong 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure over eastern 
Mexico, lower pressures over the monsoon trough, and EP99. Winds
are expected to diminish below gale force by this afternoon,
however, strong to occasionally near-gale force winds will pulse
through Wed morning. After a brief period of fresh winds through
Thu, strong winds will redevelop in the region Thu night. 

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 88W, from 03N northward 
through central Honduras, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to locally strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N 
between 85W and 91W.

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 121W, from 03N to 19N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 117W and 123W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 9.5N84W to a 1009 mb low near 
10.5N103W to a 1008 mb low near 10.5N136W to beyond 08N140W. 
Widespread moderate to locally strong convection is occurring 
from 07N to 17N between 92W and 115W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 78W 
and 83W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning and the potential for tropical 
development offshore of southwestern Mexico this week.

A surface trough has been analyzed over the northern Gulf of 
California, while ridging extends over the Baja California 
waters. The pressure gradient between these features is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas 
offshore of the peninsula, generally north of Cabo San Lazaro. In
the Gulf of California, moderate SE winds prevail, with locally 
fresh winds occurring in the northern Gulf. Seas of 2 to 3 ft are
noted in this region. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and 8 
to 9 ft seas in mixed NE and S swell extend through the waters 
offshore of Oaxaca and Guerrero, generated by gale force winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere offshore of southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure is located about 500 
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining 
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system 
has a high chance of formation within the next 48 hours. 
Elsewhere, gale force winds and rough seas will occur this 
morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec before winds diminish below 
gale force by this afternoon. Strong to occasionally near-gale 
force winds will then pulse through Wed morning. After a brief 
period of fresh winds through Thu, strong winds will redevelop in
the region Thu night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas in mixed NE 
and S swell are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo, to the waters
offshore of El Salvador, as low pressure persists in the south- 
central Caribbean. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, gentle 
to locally moderate NE winds prevail. South of the trough, 
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted. Seas of 4 to 6
ft are noted through the regional waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds 
and moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Thu as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean, and 
an area of low pressure strengthens to the west. Winds are 
expected to strengthen to strong speeds in this region late this 
week, and fresh winds will extend through the waters offshore of 
El Salvador and Guatemala. Looking ahead, a long-period SW swell
may lead to rough seas offshore of South America by late week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for information on the 
potential for tropical development in the western East Pacific 
this week.

A 1008 mb low analyzed near 10.5N136W, EP98, is producing fresh
to locally strong winds and 8 to 9 ft seas surrounding the low, 
especially in the northern semicircle. Farther east, moderate to
fresh NE to SE winds are occurring near a tropical wave analyzed
along 121W. Otherwise, ridging extends over much of the eastern
Pacific north of the monsoon trough, and widespread moderate to 
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are occurring in this 
region. However, gentle winds and slight seas are noted north of 
25N and west of 130W, near the center of the high pressure. South
of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail, with 
widespread fresh winds and locally rough seas occurring near the
low pressure analyzed near 10.5N103W, EP99. 

For the forecast, a well-defined area of low pressure is located
around 1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some 
development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm could form during the next day or two as it moves 
generally westward around 10 mph. This system is expected to move
into the Central Pacific basin tonight. This system has a medium
chance of formation within the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a 
trough of low pressure is located about 500 miles south of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-
northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of 
formation within the next 48 hours.

$$ 
ADAMS