000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300432
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad, elongated 1007 mb trough of low pressure, Invest Area 
EP95 with a poorly defined center is located near 12N125W, along 
a developing monsoon trough. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on 
convection. Gradual development of this system is likely during 
the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the middle of this week while the system moves generally 
northwestward and then northward. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending 
its chances of development. This system has a high chance for 
tropical cyclone formation for the next 2 to 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 106W from 16N southward, and moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is flaring up from 05N to 13N between
95W and 112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends westward from near the Panama-Colombia 
coastal border to 07N92W. Farther west, a developing monsoon 
trough curves northwestward from 11N118W to EP95 mentioned in 
the Special Features section, then turns southwestward to 
04N140W. An ITCZ runs westward from 07N92W to 08N105W, then 
resumes from 08N107W to 11N117W. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is found near and south of the first 
monsoon trough, from 02N to 07N between 79W and 93W, including 
waters near the Colombia coast, and in the far southern offshore 
waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is occurring near and south of the developing 
monsoon trough from 04N to 17N between 112W and 130W, and from 
00N to 11N west of 130W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from strong high pressure located 
well N of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N140W to
just NE of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Strong to gale 
force winds farther north and offshore of California are 
generating typical NW swell moving into the Baja waters, with 
seas to 8 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte. Inside 
the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh SW to W gap 
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the northern Gulf, 
while moderate to fresh S winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft generally 
prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds 
dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to 
near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- 
equatorial S swell. A narrow plume of fresh N to NE gap winds 
continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to 
near 14.5N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this area. 

For the forecast, the broad ridge extending across the region 
today to just NE of the Revillagigedo Islands will remain intact 
through Tue then begin to drift westward and weaken slightly 
through the remainder of the week. This pattern will produce 
gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Fri, with
locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and evening. 
Moderate NW swell moving into these area waters will maintain 
seas near 8 ft across the outer Baja Norte waters through Thu. A 
narrow plume of fresh N to NE gap winds and moderate to rough 
seas are expected to continue to pulse to strong across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours 
each night and morning through Sat. Fresh to strong W to SW gap 
winds will also pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight 
through early Tue morning, and then become moderate to fresh Tue 
through Wed morning. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE 
gap winds dominating the Papagayo region and extending offshore
to 92W and northward across coastal Nicaragua to the Gulf of 
Fonseca. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Satellite 
scatterometer data also showed moderate to fresh N winds across 
the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 03.5N, where seas are 4
to 6 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell 
prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia 
offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 7 
ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N
between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Thunderstorms remain 
active this afternoon from 02N to 06N E of 85W.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate
to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region 
throughout the week, as a strong ridge persists north of the 
region. NE to E swell generated by these winds are expected to 
maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond
90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep 
moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off
Ecuador until midweek. Periods of heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, spreading to 
south of Costa Rica and Panama by this evening.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
Invest Area EP95.

A broad surface ridge extending from N of the Hawaiian Islands 
southeastward through 30N140W to just NE of the Revillagigedo 
Islands is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 8
ft seas to the N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. East of 120W and 
north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to 
E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. A
1008 mb surface low has developed this afternoon near 11.5N 123W,
in association with a tropical wave, and is being monitored for 
tropical development, Invest EP95. Scattered to numerous 
convection remains active about this broad cyclonic low level 
circulation. Fresh E to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found 
within 300 nm across the N semicircle of this broad low. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell are 
noted near and south of the ITCZ to near 04N. Moderate to locally
fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- equatorial S 
to SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. 

For the forecast, gradual development of Invest EP95 is possible
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by the middle of this week while the system moves 
generally northwestward and then northward. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of 
the week, ending its chances of development. Regardless of 
development, a gradual increase of winds and seas is expected 
along the northern portion of this area of low pressure this 
week, as a broad high pressure ridge persists N of the area. 
Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of 
the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual 
decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.

$$

Chan