000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132208
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will
continue to impact the waters N of about 10N for the next 
several days. Currently, seas are 11 to 16 ft north of 
24N west of 120W as seen latest altimeter satellite data passes.
Wave period is 15-18 seconds. A reinforcing and larger set of NW
swell will arrive tonight, with peak seas around 22 ft near 
30N135W by early this evening. By Sat afternoon, this set with 
seas of 12 ft or greater will reach across the waters W of about 
30N118W to 20N132W to 20N140W and peak seas of 22 ft near 
30N134W. These seas will keep spreading southeastward as yet 
another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W
by late Sat night, spreading across the majority of the waters 
into early next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas 
Forecast at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward
to across northern Costa Rica and to 10N86W to 05N100W and to 
07N114W. The ITCZ extends from 06N127W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ west 
of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
supported by the resultant pressure gradient between a high 
pressure system over southern United States and Mexico, and lower
pressure associated to the monsoon trough south of the area. A
recent Ascat scatterometer data pass nicely captures these winds.
Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
gradient that is present across the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters is generally allowing for mainly light to gentle
winds. Recent altimeter satellite data passes reveal seas of 6 
to 8 ft in subsiding northwest swell over the waters area south 
of Punta Eugenia and east to near 107W. Slightly lower seas of 5 
to 7 ft are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters outside 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. North of Punta Eugenia, rough 
seas in the range of 8 to 13 ft are present as a new set of long-
period NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west 
of Baja California Norte.

For the forecast fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas 
around 8 ft will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec into 
early on Sat. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to 
begin by Mon evening, and continue through much of the next week.
Winds there may reach gale-force starting late Tue and possibly 
continue through most of the period through Wed night. Fresh 
northwest winds west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia 
will diminish on Sat. Very rough seas from an expansive set of
northwest swell over these waters will peak to around 20 ft Sat 
night before gradually subsiding afterward. Fresh to locally 
strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish by 
early Sat. Another rather expansive set of NW swell expected on 
Sat should build seas to around 19 ft over the outer offshore 
waters of Baja California Norte. Rough seas will reach all the 
way to past 100W, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets 
continue to arrive. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weakened pressure gradient is generally providing for light 
to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters as 
noted in recent Ascat scatterometer data. Slight to moderate 
seas are over these waters.  Otherwise, moderate or weaker SSW 
winds and moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft are present between the 
Galapagos Islands and the coast of Ecuador. Slightly higher winds
and seas are possible due to clusters of numerous moderate to 
strong convection offshore Ecuador and Colombia that extend 
westward to near 85W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are 
forecast to return to the Papagayo region by late Sat night, 
reach strong speeds by Mon night, and continue through Thu. 
Moderate N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama early next week.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging
SW and NW swell will prevail through the next few days. Looking 
ahead, a set of northwest swell may build seas to 8 ft or 
greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of
the open waters.

A dissipating cold front extends from 30N115W south-southwestward
to 27N116W and to 24N121W, where it transitions to a trough to
near 21N135W. Latest Ascat scatterometer data shows fresh to 
strong west to northwest winds north of the front. Seas of 9 to 
14 ft in northwest swell are northwest of front while seas of 8 
to 12 ft are north of the trough, and southeast of the trough to 
a line from 15N121W to 09N140W. Another cold front has recently 
entered the NW part of the area, and is analyzed from near 
30N134W to 29N140W. Seas of 11 to 16 ft in northwest swell follow
this front. This front will sweep across the northern through 
Sat night while weakening as yet another cold front makes its 
entrance into the far NW part of the area. Fresh to strong north 
to northeast winds will follow in behind this front as well as 
another set of long-period northwest swell with period of 15-17 
seconds and seas possibly up to 19 ft.

Moderate to fresh trades are over the waters from 10N to 20N
west of 136W and from 12N to 18N between 120W and 136W. Seas 
over these waters are 8 to 11 ft in long-period northwest swell.
Merging SW and NW swells supports combined seas of 7 to 9 ft 
over the waters S of 10N between 94W and 125W. Elsewhere, winds 
are moderate or weaker along with moderate seas as detected in 
latest Ascat scatterometer data and by recent altimeter data
passes.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong west to northwest winds
behind the dissipating cold front will diminish to moderate 
speeds early on Sat as the dissipating frontal boundary reaches 
from near 27N114W to 21N125W and to 16N140W. Very large seas in 
NW swell will follow in behind the frontal boundary. The second
new cold front will move across the northwest and north-central
waters through Sun bringing even larger reinforcing NW swell, 
possibly reaching 23 ft along 30N. This set of swell with seas 
of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters north of 05N and
west f 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the waters W
of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun, with 
seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters W of 105W by 
late Sun night, then across the waters W of 95W by Tue evening. 
Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters will 
diminish by early Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front may move
into the northwest waters by the end of the weekend and into 
early next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds 
behind it as high pressure builds in behind the front. An
additional pulse of large northwest swell will be following in 
behind this front.

$$
Aguirre