000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092120
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 113W and extends from 07N to 18N, 
moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
along and east of the wave axis from 10N to 16N between 100W and
113W.

A tropical wave is along 122W/123W and extends from 07N to 16N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. A large area of showers and thunderstorms
is ahead of the wave axis covering the waters from 06N to 15N
between 125W and 134W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N76W to 06N95W to 08N110W to 13N117W
to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 15N between 125W and 134W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 06N between
82W and 90W, from 10N to 16N between 100W and 113W, and from 08N
to 13N W of 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong
N winds across the Tehuantepec area and downwind to near 14.5N. 
Rough seas to 8 ft are associated with these gap winds. A ridge 
dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California 
supporting light to gentle winds. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds
are seen over the northern Gulf of California while gentle to
moderate winds from the same direction prevail elsewhere. Light 
to gentle winds are occurring across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, seas are 3 
to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1 to 3 ft, with the 
exception of 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are 
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. The
pressure gradient between the ridge W of the area and lower
pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California 
through Wed. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will promote
mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore 
waters of Mexico along with moderate seas.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle part of the 
week. Little, if any, development of this system is anticipated 
while it moves generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data indicate a plume of fresh to strong NE
to E winds acoss the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 
08.5N92W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh
N gap winds are also active across the Gulf of Panama extending 
to about 06N with 3 to 5 ft seas, with the exception of 4 to 6 
ft south of the Azuero Peninsula. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands, winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 5 ft in 
SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, 
mostly gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in SW swell are noted.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
in the Papagayo region through Tue morning, reaching near gale- 
force speed at night. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of
moderate to locally fresh easterlies with seas of 6 to 8 ft 
across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
through late Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through Tue. Moderate or weaker southerly winds 
and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast
elsewhere through Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure located near 40N137W extends a ridge 
across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 16N and W
of 110W. The pressure gradient between this feature and lower 
pressures along the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 130W. Seas over these 
waters are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are 
associated with a large and disorganized area of showers and 
thunderstorms covering the waters from 06N to 15N between 125W 
and 134W. This area is being monitored for possible tropical 
cyclone development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
are forecast to persist W of 125W likely through Tue. As
previously mentioned, the tropical wave located several hundred 
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward across the western portion 
of the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase 
across the west-central portion of the forecast region by the 
early to middle part of the week as this system develops.

$$
GR