698 
AXPZ20 KNHC 120953
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the early to 
middle part of next week while the system moves generally west-
northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. Regarless of 
development, this system is likely to bring fresh to strong winds
and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW 
Mexico starting late today into tonight. The latest Tropical 
Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through
7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website 
-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W, and extends northward to
the Bay of Campeche, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 
17N between 88W and 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 131W from 08N to 18N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 07N to 18N between 123W and 
134W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N96W to 08N113W, then
resumes near 10N124W and continues along 12N131W to 06N140W. The
ITCZ stretches westward beyond 06N140W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 10N E of 88W to
the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 17N between 112W and 122W, from 05N to 12N between 98W and 
108W, and from 05N to 10N W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting light to gentle winds, also in the Gulf of
California. Seas are slight to moderate across the Baja offshores
and slight along the Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds 
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. Over the 
SW Mexican offshores, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW
and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing 
for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with 
moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail during this 
period. Similarly, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Otherwise, a broad 
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico has the potential for gradual 
development into a tropical depression during the early or middle
part of next week while the system moves generally WNW well off 
the coast of Mexico. Regarless of development, this system is 
likely to bring fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough 
seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late today 
into tonight.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region. 
Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca area. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW prevail 
elsewhere. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and 
thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters from Colombia 
to Guatemala. Winds and seas are likely higher near these 
thunderstorms activity.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through Thu night along with moderate to rough 
seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas may impact the
waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala today through Mon 
night as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred 
miles south of the SW coast of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in 
the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 18N W of 120W. 
Under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate NE winds 
are noted N of 10N and W of 125W while light to gentle winds 
dominate the waters between 106W and 125W. A tropical wave is 
moving westward across the waters S of 20N between 123W and 135W.
A surface trough is analyzed E of this wave from 15N117W to 
06N119W. Scattered moderate convection is near the trough axis, 
which is well defined. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere 
along with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form 
during the early to middle part of next week while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. 
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a 
high chance through 7 days.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form by 
the middle of next week several hundred miles south of the coast 
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system later next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. The 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance 
of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a low 
chance through 7 days.

$$
Ramos