000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030327
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 18.8N 127.6W at 03/0300
UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 120 nm from the
center. Showers and thunderstorms are weakening, but scattered
moderate convection still extends 135 nm in the southeast
semicircle of the storm. Douglas is expected to continue to 
gradually turn toward the northwest tonight through Fri, and 
gradually weaken as is encounters an unfavorable atmospheric and 
oceanic environment. Douglas is forecast to remain a tropical 
storm tonight, and become a 30 kt post- tropical remnant low on 
Fri, then continue to move NW and gradually dissipate over the 
weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 85W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, 
moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in
the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 100W, south of 15N, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is also described below 
in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Segments of the monsoon trough extend from 09N85W to 03N115W to 
08N122W, and from 13N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 85W 
and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas
are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between high pressure
north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics.
Associated seas are reaching 8 ft in the plume of these gap
winds. Farther north, a ridge off Baja California will maintain 
gentle to moderate breezes, with 4-6 ft seas off Baja. Gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough 
seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and again 
Fri night, between high pressure north of the region and lower 
pressure over the tropics. Farther north, a ridge off Baja 
California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, 
becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja 
California starting Sun as the high pressure builds. Looking 
ahead, large SW swell may reach the waters off southern Mexico 
early next week. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo 
region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
this area. Gentle to moderate SW breezes are noted elsewhere. 
Cross- equatorial SW swell to 8 ft dominate waters S of 02N 
between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with 4-6 ft seas 
elsewhere. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues 
across the waters N of 05N from Colombia to offshore of 
Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist
across the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia through at
least Sun as a tropical wave move through the region. Fresh to
strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into
early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-
equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the
weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon,
increasing to near 8 ft from the Galapagos Islands to Ecuador
waters Sun night through Tue. Looking ahead, large SW swell may
also reach the waters off northern Central America by Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Douglas.

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well
north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, 
then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds within 300 nm 
to the N and NW of Douglas, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere
south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 
ft seas in N swell prevail north of 17N and west of 120W, 
outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near
Douglas and the areas of convection described above. Mixed SE and
cross-equatorial SW swell are producing seas of 7 to 8 ft S of 
05N and W of 130W.

For the forecast, the ridge will drift southwestward and generally
persist across the region through early next week. Douglas will 
move N-NW and weaken to a 30 kt remnant low near 20N 130W early Fri,
and continue northwestward and gradually dissipate through late 
Sun or Mon.

$$
Christensen