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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200212
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 89W from 09N northward across 
portions of El Salvador and the Yucatan Peninsula, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 128W from 05N to 18N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N76W to 08N90W to 06N98W
to 09N110W to 14N126W to 10N140W. Scattered to numerous 
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 87W,
and from 05N to 11N between 87W and 102W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 106W amd 
124W, from 09N to 18N between 124W and 131W, and from 05N to 14N 
between 131W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds continue, locally fresh near Punta
Eugenia on the Baja California Peninsula. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in 
long-period southwest swell, mixed NW swell in the outer Baja 
California offshore waters, except slight seas in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will pulse early Sun
in the northern Gulf of California as low pressure deepens just 
N of the area, then prevail through Tue night. Pulsing fresh to 
strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Wed night as a surface trough is expected to move from 
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days. 
Rough seas are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early
Sun. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will 
prevail. Winds may freshen near Baja California by mid-week as 
the local pressure gradient tightens slightly. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate 
southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and The 
Galapagos Islands along with seas of 5 to 6 ft in south to 
southwest swell. Light and variable winds are elsewhere across 
the Central America offshore waters. Seas over these waters are 4
to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Thu with
periods of rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
associated with these gap winds will continue to affect the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least the
middle of next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly 
winds will continue between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands 
through at least Thu night along with moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure is analyzed well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 20N
and 115W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 128W. Winds
near this wave have increased to moderate to fresh, with seas
building to 6 to 8 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and the wave is also allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds to exist from north of the monsoon trough to 20N 
between 125W and 140W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east 
trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along 
with 5 to 7 ft seas. South of the monsoon, winds are moderate to 
locally fresh and seas to 7 ft in southeast to south swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 128W is
located in an environment where conditions are marginally 
conducive for development during the next few days as the system 
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a low chance 
of tropical cyclone formation before it reaches unfavorable 
conditions by the early to middle portions of next week.  
Otherwise, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades will 
change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ through 
early Sun, then shift to the western part of the area as the 
gradient between a tropical wave and the high pressure tightens. 
Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 10 ft with the 
tighter gradient over the western part of the area early Sun 
through Wed and with increasing winds to strong speeds. Seas will
linger around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 105W through
the early part of next week.

$$
Lewitsky