505 
AXPZ20 KNHC 171546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 12.3N 94.1W at 17/1500
UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is N of 10N between 90W-98W. Seas to 15 ft are
expected within 30 nm of center in the N semicircle of the
system. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected 
to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move
inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Erick is forecast to be
near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast
of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Dangerous storm
surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the 
east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore 
winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive 
waves. Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting 
the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Erick NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the
Caribbean Sea southward along 84W, moving westward at around 10 
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
180 nm of the wave AXIS AND N OF 05N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N89W. It resumes 
southwest of Tropical Storm Erick near 09N98W and continues 
northwestward to 09N122W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
09N140W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Erick,
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the monsoon
trough and E of 103W, and along the ITCZ and W of 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on current
conditions of Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, the remnant low of Dalila is analyzed with a pressure
of 1008 mb near 19N113W. Latest ASCAT pass highlighted gentle to
moderate winds near the low. Moderate to fresh northwest to 
north winds are from 18N to 20N between 113W and 114W along with 
moderate seas. High pressure is present west of Baja California 
with moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds 
are over the Gulf of California along with slight seas, except 
for moderate seas over the southern part of the Gulf. Moderate 
seas prevail across the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will move to 12.8N 94.9W 
this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.6N 96.0W Wed 
morning, 14.7N 97.2W Wed evening, 16.0N 98.5W Thu morning, move 
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.5N 100.2W Thu 
evening, and weaken to a remnant low near 18.8N 102.1W Fri 
morning. Erick will dissipate early Sat. Elsewhere, high pressure
well northwest of the area will support pulsing moderate to 
fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California Norte 
offshore waters through the rest of the week. Rough northwest to 
north swell will build over the Baja waters through the rest of 
the week. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of northwest 
to north starting Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will 
continue across the Gulf of California today. Winds will be 
mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere during the period. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on current
conditions of Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore 
Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, 
with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will move to 12.8N 94.9W 
this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.6N 96.0W Wed 
morning, 14.7N 97.2W Wed evening, 16.0N 98.5W Thu morning, move 
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.5N 100.2W Thu 
evening, and weaken to a remnant low near 18.8N 102.1W Fri 
morning. Erick will dissipate early Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands
through the next few days. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to mostly fresh speeds 
in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate 
seas off Ecuador will prevails through the rest of the week. 
Moderate seas will be mainly offshore Colombia northward through 
Wed, except higher near T.S. Erick, subsiding afterward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
current conditions of Tropical Storm Erick.

Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well northwest of the 
discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near 
19N113W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open 
waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, 
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 
mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and 
northerly swells.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast 
to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand 
in coverage through the end of the week.  A slight increase in 
seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through
Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional 
waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the 
week.

$$
ERA