000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will 
continue to impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several
days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. 
Currently, a cold front extends from 30N119W to 24.5N140W. Ahead 
of the front, and extending as far south of 05N and W of 110W, 
rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated with a 
former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 10 to 15 
seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW 
swell with 16 to 20 second period continues to spread across the 
northern waters with peak seas around 24 ft, as noted on recent 
altimeter satellite data and buoy data. By this evening, the 
front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte N of Punta 
Eugenia to 23N130W while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 20 
ft spreading as far south as 15N with seas up to 24 ft N of 27N, 
and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 05N. These high energy waves will
have a period of 13 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep 
spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater 
arrives to near 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, spreading
across the majority of the waters into early next week. Please 
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N83.5W 
westward to 04N100W to 05N129W. The ITCZ extends from 05N129W to
beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 01S to 08N between 84W and 114W and from 08N to 
12N W of 129W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer satellite imagery indicate that moderate to
locally fresh NW to W winds are occurring offshore of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro, ahead of a cold front moving
through Southern California and into northern Baja. Rough seas 
of 8 to 12 ft are occurring offshore of the Baja peninsula and 
near the Revillagigedo Islands, as observed by recent altimeter 
data. In the Gulf of California, mainly moderate SW to NW winds 
and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted, along a trough axis that extends 
through the region. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas in NW swell prevail elsewhere over the Mexico 
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas 
are expected to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon 
evening. Winds will pulse to gale force Tue evening through the 
end of next week, and very rough seas over 12 ft will accompany 
these winds. Elsewhere, a new N to NW swell will support very 
rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte tonight, with peak 
seas of 12 to 20 ft expanding offshore of the whole peninsula 
through Sun. Seas may temporarily subside to 8 to 12 ft late Sun 
into early Mon before the next reinforcing swell event promotes 
seas of 8 to 16 ft through midweek. In addition, a cold front is
expected to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds north 
of Cabo San Lazaro late Mon through midweek. Elsewhere, rough 
seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell will expand to offshore of 
southwestern Mexico Sun through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicate that moderate NE
winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds are noted as a light pressure gradient prevails 
over the Central American offshore waters. Moderate seas of 4 to 
7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds 
are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into early next 
week, with fresh to occasionally strong winds developing by Tue.
Moderate N winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through 
midweek. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere. Looking ahead, rough seas in N swell may develop well 
offshore of Guatemala by the middle of next week, prompted by 
gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a set of 
NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos 
Islands by the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of
the open waters.

A cold front extends from 30N119W to 24.5N140W. The pressure 
gradient between this front and the ITCZ in the deep tropics is 
supporting moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds, generally 
south of 20N and west of 115W. Significant NW swell is producing 
widespread rough seas in excess of 8 ft N of 05N over much of the
open waters, with peak seas of 12 to 24 ft located north of 20N 
and west of 120W, as noted on recent buoy and altimeter data. 
Elsewhere, locally rough seas around 8 ft in mixed SW and NW 
swell are occurring near the equator offshore of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to 
impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several days 
associated with the passage of several cold fronts. A reinforcing
and larger set of NW swell with 16 to 20 second period continues
to spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 24 
ft. By this evening, the front is forecast to reach Baja 
California Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 23N130W while weakening, 
with rough seas of 12 to 24 ft spreading as far south as 15N, and
rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 05N. These high energy waves will 
have a period of 13 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep spreading
SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to 
near 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, spreading across the
majority of the waters into early next week. In addition, fresh 
to strong N to NE winds are expected behind the passage of 
another cold front, generally north of 10N and west of 120W late 
Sun through the middle of next week.  

$$
ADAMS