000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140858
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 09N125W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 12N
between 80W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from from 1036 mb high pressure near 
40N140W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This follows
a weak front that dissipated over Baja California Norte late
yesterday. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh
NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. A
concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated 7 to 8 ft seas off
northern Baja California Norte, and 6 to 7 ft seas elsewhere off
Baja California. The scatterometer also indicated fresh to 
locally strong NW winds funneling along the coast of southern 
Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Acapulco, and the altimeter data
showed 3 to 5 ft seas off southern Mexico.  

For the forecast, the current pattern will support continuing
fresh to locally strong winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula and off the coasts of Jalisco and Colima through 
tonight, with large NW swell west of the Baja peninsula into Fri.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW 
swell, will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, a late season cold 
front will move into Baja California and the northern Gulf of 
California Sat and Sat night. Strong SW gap winds and rough seas 
are possible late Sat over the northern Gulf of California ahead 
of the front.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of thunderstorms are active this morning across the
offshore waters from Costa Rica to El Salvador. Fresh to strong 
winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are over and downstream the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds, and seas
of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms will 
persist over the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica 
through at least Sat. Strong gap winds across the Papagayo region
will diminish today. Gentle to moderate winds prevailing across 
the region through Sat, then diminish further through Sun. Expect
moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to moderate seas, 
primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of
the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell has increase seas to 8 ft 
over the waters north of 28N and W of 125W. Elsewhere seas north
of the ITCZ are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the 
ITCZ and west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft 
range in NW swell will move across the waters north of 25N and 
west of 120W through mid week, and combine with seas from trade 
winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the
week.

$$
Christensen