000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030314
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: A powerful and complex 988 mb low 
pressure system is centered north of the area near 38N135W. 
Storm force winds near the low center continue to support very 
large NW swell reaching the area waters as far south as 26N and 
as far E as 130W, with seas near 30N140W reaching 17 ft. This 
swell will continue to propagate to the southeast this weekend, 
reaching waters north of 25N and west of 125W Sat, while only 
slowly subsiding. By late Sun, seas will fall below 12 ft. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 05N95W to
05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 09N120W to 10N135W. 
Scattered 05N to 08N east of 88W, and from 13N to 18N between
115W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high west of Baja 
California Sur near 24N120W and a surface trough along the 
eastern shores of the Gulf of California is leading to fresh NW 
winds from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes, as
well as offshore waters near Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, gentle 
breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW swell prevail.

For the forecast, long period NW swell will bring rough seas to 
the Baja California offshore waters Sat night through Mon. In the
wake of a cold front moving through eastern Mexico, strong gap 
winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh NE to E 
gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh winds in the Papagayo region will diminish
tonight, but as high pressure strengthens N of the region, pulses
of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds may return starting Sun 
night. Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere through the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 25N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas through Sat night.

Strong SW winds are noted within 90 nm east of a cold front 
extending from 30N125W to 20N136W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds
and rough seas follow the front as well. A 1018 mb high pressure
is centered near 24N120W. A pair surface troughs are analyzed 
over the tropical waters from 15N125W to 11N130W, and from
19N130W to 10N140W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active from 13N to 18N between 115W and 120W. Fresh W to SW 
winds and rough seas are south of 10N and west of 130W. 
Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate 
breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually weaken as it 
continues to move eastward over the waters north of 23N through 
Sat. A reinforcing front will follow, but also weaken as it moves
eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking ahead, another front will 
enter the northern waters Mon and approach 120W through late 
Tue. These fronts will disrupt the standard subtropical ridge 
north of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the 
region through early next week. 

$$
Christensen