000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090301
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient 
between a ridge that extends from the western Gulf of America 
southward to southeastern Mexico and lower pressure associated 
with the ITCZ will continue to support gale-force northerly 
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Mon. Winds
will quickly diminish through the day. Peak seas with these 
winds may reach to near 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft in west 
to northwest swell by Tue afternoon. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Gale-force winds will pulse again
across the Papagayo region tonight due to the pressure gradient 
between high pressure centered over the western Gulf of America 
and relatively lower pressure associated with the ITCZ. Rough 
seas will accompany these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N110W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 04N140W. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 14N110W to 05N120W. Scattered moderate convection
is with the second trough mainly between 108W-119W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Features section above for details.

Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest
to north winds are west of Baja California as well as to the 
southwest of the peninsula, while light and variable winds are 
prevail elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are mostly
in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California
while mostly gentle northwest winds are in the northern section. 
Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the central and southern sections of the
Gulf and 2 to 3 ft in the northern section. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are over the Mexican waters, except for higher seas of 8 to 10 ft
in long-period west to northwest swell from 17N-22N and west of 
107W.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event, 
the long-period northwest swell north of 17N and west of 107W 
will begin to decay tonight. A cold front is expected to move 
across the waters west of Baja California Norte from late Tue 
into Wed while weakening. Fresh to strong southeast winds are 
expected to develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tue
ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, a set of northwest swell in 
the wake of the front may move through the outermost offshore 
waters of Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed before decaying
Wed night. Fresh to strong southeast are expected to develop in 
the far northern Gulf of California on Tuesday. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see
the Special Features section above for details.

Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo conditions, fresh to strong NE
winds have developed in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh 
northeast winds and rough seas are over the eastern part of the 
offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the ongoing Gulf of 
Papagayo gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, the strong  
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh 
speeds late Mon night and continue with little change through the
forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1029 mb is analyzed north of the area at
32N131W, with a ridge axis extending southeastward to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Latest scatterometer satellite data 
passes reveal light to gentle anticyclone winds north of 25N and 
west of 125W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 
and lower pressure to the south associated with the ITCZ is 
producing fresh trades from 07N to 15N west of 120W. Seas over 
these waters are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northwest swell mixed 
with wind generated waves, except mixed with northeast to east 
swell west of about 128W. Fresh east winds generated from the 
recent Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event have spread 
westward to near 105W.

For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest
swell will slowly subside to around 8 ft through Tue. The trades
over the western half of the area are forecast to diminish some 
late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part 
of the area, and the high pressure that is in place shifts 
eastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northerly winds are 
expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft
in northwest swell. Seas 12 ft and greater are expected along 
and just north of 30N and between 128W and 131W at that time.

$$
ERA