000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020249
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: Large NW swell behind a cold front
will continue to propagate into the NW waters over the next few
days, causing seas to build to over 12 ft for waters north of 
25N and west of 125W into the weekend. Very rough seas will peak
as high as 18 ft tonight into Fri along 30N west of 135W. The 
swell will gradually decay over the weekend, with seas falling 
below 12 ft by late Sun. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N85W to 06N90W to
06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 11N130W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 05N to 07N between 85W and
88W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1020 mb high pressure over the Gulf of America is forcing strong
gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with associated rough 
seas. Farther north, 1017 mb high pressure is centered west of
Baja California near 25N125W. This pattern is supporting fresh to
strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, where seas are are peaking
near 7 ft. Gentle breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW
swell.

For the forecast, the strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish overnight into early Fri, as high
pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The gap
winds may return to Tehuantepec by late Sat night through Sun
night. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds offshore Jalisco 
extending northward to the mouth of the Gulf of California will 
prevail into Fri night. Long period NW swell will bring rough 
seas to the Baja California offshore waters Sat night through 
Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting strong NE to E 
gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. 
Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, 
reaching as far south as 05N. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to 
support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with 
moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in the
Gulf of Panama into tonight. As the high weakens, these winds 
will diminish in both areas, but may return starting Sun. Mainly 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere 
through early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 25N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas into the weekend.

Seas to 8 ft are noted from 05N to 10N between 90W and 115W, downwind
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with earlier gap winds in
that region. Farther northwest, strong SW winds are noted within
120 nm east of a cold front extending from 30N135W to 25N140W. 
Strong NW winds follow the front as well. 1017 mb high pressure 
is centered near 25N125W. A surface trough is analyzed over the 
tropical waters from 16N130W to 11N135W. Earlier scatterometer 
satellite data indicated fresh W to SW winds following the front 
mainly south of 10N and west of 130W. Elsewhere, the pattern is 
supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas 
primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the seas downwind from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will diminish into early Fri. Farther northwest, the cold front 
will gradually weaken as it continues to move eastward over the 
waters north of 25N through Sat. A reinforcing front will follow,
but also weaken as it moves eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking
ahead, another front will enter the waters east of 130W by Mon 
night and approach 120W through late Tue. These fronts will 
disrupt the standary subtropical ridge north of 20N, maintaining 
gentle to moderate breezes across the region into early next 
week. 

$$
Christensen