000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP93): An area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 09.5N97W is associated with
a broad area of low pressure. Current associated winds are up to
around 20 kt, while seas are building to around 8 ft. Nearby 
convection is described below. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend 
while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high 
chance through the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect 
increasing winds and seas with this feature. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to broad low pressure
near 09.5N97W to 12N106W, then resumes SW of the remnant low of
Cosme near 11.5N116.5W to 09N132W. The ITCZ extends from 09N132W
to beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 10N between 77W and 88W, from 05N to 17N between 90W
and 107W, and from 04N to 09N between 132W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 09.5N97W.

The remnant low of Cosme is located just SW of the Revillagigedo
Islands near 16.5N113W at 1008 mb. No significant convection is
present. Remnant winds are still likely 20 to 30 kt, mainly on
the SW side just along and beyond the offshore waters boundary, 
with seas of 2.5 to 3.5 m. Otherwise, weak ridging extends from a
1029 mb high centered well NW of the area NNE of the Big Island 
of Hawaii at 37N150.5W to offshore Baja California. Winds are 
moderate or weaker, including in the Gulf of California, with
seas of 5 to 7 ft in the open waters, and 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf
of California. 

For the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure with
tropical cyclone formation possibility mentioned above, the 
remnant low of Cosme will continue to spin down with associated 
winds and seas diminishing and subsiding by Thu morning. Elsewhere,
little change in winds and seas is forecast, except offshore 
Baja California Norte where seas may build locally to rough in 
fresh NW-N swell late in the weekend, along with freshening winds.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the Gulf of 
California early next week as troughing deepens over the Baja 
California Peninsula.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are mainly gentle to moderate across the offshore waters. 
Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are across much of the waters from Colombia 
northward as described above.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through tonight. From Thu into Fri
night, an enhanced monsoon trough should cause increasing SW 
winds as well as showers and thunderstorms over the Central 
American forecast waters. Looking ahead, quiescent conditions are
likely for much of the weekend. Winds may increase again south of
the monsoon trough offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador 
to the Galapagos Islands late in the weekend  and into early 
next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 09.5N97W.

Weak ridging extends from a 1029 mb high centered well NW of the
area NNE of the Big Island of Hawaii at 37N150.5W to offshore 
Baja California. With this feature dominating the waters N of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough, mainly moderate winds prevail, except
locally fresh north of the ITCZ to around 20N. The remnant low of
Cosme is located just SW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 
16.5N113W at 1008 mb. No significant convection is present. 
Remnant winds are still likely 20 to 30 kt, mainly on the SW side
just along and beyond the offshore waters boundary, with seas of
2.5 to 3.5 m. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder
of the waters, including south of the monsoon trough and away 
from the broad area of low pressure. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft 
across the remainder of the open waters, except south of the 
Equator and west of the Galapagos Islands where they are 
building to 7 to 10 ft in S to SW swell.

In the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure with
tropical cyclone formation possibility mentioned above, the 
remnant low of Cosme will continue to spin down with associated 
winds and seas diminishing and subsiding by Thu morning. Little
change in winds and seas is expected elsewhere through the
weekend, except across the north central waters where freshening
winds off southern California will build rough seas into our
area. Winds may increase to moderate to fresh across much of the
open waters early next week as the pressure gradient between the
possible tropical cyclone and building high pressure west of it
tightens.

$$
Lewitsky