000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Mar 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build 
across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving into 
southern Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and the equatorial trough will support gale force gap 
winds across the Tehuantepec region starting Mon night and 
persisting into mid week. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 02N95W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N95W to 00N98W to 02S130W to beyond 00N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 90W and 
95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N 
between 125W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features above for more on an upcoming gale
warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

A weak pressure gradient is generating light to gentle winds 
across much of the forecast area, except moderate winds off Cabo 
Corrientes. Rough seas in NW swell has propagated into the waters
northwest of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail 
over the open waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, large NW 
swell over the outer offshore waters off Baja California Norte 
near Guadalupe Island will subside by tonight. Elsewhere, a weak 
pressure pattern over the region will maintain gentle to moderate
breezes and and moderate seas over the open waters off Mexico, 
with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California into next 
week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds, locally strong, are over and 
downwind the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are
pulsing in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere. SW swell is moving across the waters S of 03N, 
bringing rough seas over the waters from Ecuador westward to the 
Galapagos Islands. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region accompanied by rough seas. Expect 
rough seas in the Gulf of Panama and farther offshore through 
tonight due to waves generated by fresh N winds and SW swell. The
large SW will also impact offshore areas off Colombia and 
Ecuador through the weekend. Gap winds will diminish and the SW 
swell will subside through the early to mid portions of next 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered north of the area. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mostly gentle to moderate
NE to E winds across the region. SW swell is bringing seas of 
7-9 ft across the waters south of 11N and east of 120W. Wave 
heights are 6-8 ft south of 10N west of 120W in a combination of
NW and SW swell and local trade wind related wind waves. Farther
north, NW swell is bringing seas of 6-8 ft to the waters north 
of 27N west of 120W. Combined seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the rough seas in the tradewind zone will 
subside today. Cross-equatorial SW swell will gradually subside 
today. Farther north, NW swell reaching 8 ft will propagate into 
the waters north of 27N west of 120W will subside by tonight. 
Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon through mid 
week.

$$
Christensen