000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270407
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force N winds are 
blowing across the Tehunatepec region while gale-force winds 
extend downwind near 12N, and fresh to near gale-force NE to E 
winds extend to near 11N. Peak seas within the strongest winds
are forecast to be 23 ft. A recent altimeter pass show seas to 18
ft extending across the Chiapas offshore waters. Seas will
continue to build tonight, reaching an estimated peak of 28 ft by
Tue morning. Furthermore, gusty winds may reach near hurricane 
force tonight into Tue morning. Large seas generated from this 
strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec 
area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 07N by
Wed morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm-force by
late Tue morning but strong gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will
persist through the late afternoon hours. Gale conditions will 
then continue through Thu morning. Seas generated from this gap 
wind event will continue to propagate well away of the 
Tehuantepec region, and affect the offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador with seas 12 ft or greater tonight through Wed. 
Seas are forecast to subside and winds significantly diminish by
Thu evening, however another strong gap wind event is forecast to
begin Fri night and continue over the weekend. Marine interests 
transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware
of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary 
action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the 
affected waters. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details
on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N94W to 04N112W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 
128W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A storm-force gap wind event is ongoing in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, which winds and seas will reach downwind and affect
the waters beyond the offshores as well as the Guatemala and El
Salvador offshores. See the Special Features above for details on
this event.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting gentle to locally moderate NE winds. However, a 
tighter pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the Great 
Basin and a trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate to 
fresh NW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas, highest near the entrance of 
the gulf. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
forecast waters.

For the forecast, winds are forecast to diminish below storm- 
force in Tehuantepec by late Tue morning but strong gale-force 
winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist through the late afternoon 
hours. Gale conditions will then continue through Thu morning. 
Seas generated from this gap wind event will continue to 
propagate well away of the Tehuantepec region, and affect the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador with seas 12 ft or 
greater tonight through Wed. Seas are forecast to subside and 
winds significantly diminish by Thu evening, however another 
strong gap wind event is forecast to begin Fri night and continue
over the weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are 
expected in the Gulf of California through Fri night as a high 
pressure system settles over the SW of the United States. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft within 
these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 07N. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted, with slight to 
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue   
across the Papagayo region through Tue morning as high pressure 
builds N of area in the wake of a cold front moving across the NW
Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale force, mainly at 
night Tue through Thu, with seas building to around 10 ft. 
Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or 
weaker through Sat. Seas generated by a very strong gap wind 
event in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate 
across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 
tonight. The highest seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range in NW swell,
are expected on Tue. Rough seas are forecsat to persist through 
Thu as seas generated in the Papagayo area will also reach the 
Guatemala and El Salvador outer offshore waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong ridge over the Great Basin dominates the subtropical
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of moderate
to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 19N and W of 
110W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds per recent altimeter 
data. A cold front entered the NW corner of the forecast region.
Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead and behind the front. A 
surface trough stretches from from 11N128W to 05N135W. Some 
convective activity is near the trough axis enhanced by a 
diffluent pattern aloft. Winds immediate west of the Tehuantepec
offshores are fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in 
mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain
nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. The cold front will 
extend from 30N134W to 25N140W by Tue morning, then will 
dissipate on Wed. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake
of the front. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and 
behind the front by tonight, then winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt
on Tue. Rough seas, in the wake of the front, will propagate 
across the forecast waters covering a large area, NW of a line 
from 30N128W to 19N140W, by Wed. The surface trough will move 
westward over the next couple of days.

$$
Ramos