Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 080913

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N90W to 08N110W to 10N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 13N between 101W and 110W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm S of the 
ITCZ between 119W and 122W, and from 08N to 11N between 125W and 
137W. W of 130W.


A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate N-NE winds. Seas are 3-5 ft. Light 
to gentle and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, 
with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds S of 
25N. Seas are 2-4 ft within these winds, and 1-2 ft elsewhere 
across the Gulf. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong N 
winds are occurring with seas up to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate 
NW-N winds are noted per scatterometer data between Cabo Corriente
and Los Cabos, including Las Marias islands. Light to gentle 
variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft are seen across the remainder 
Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California. This
system will strengthen later in the week, with N winds increasing
to fresh tonight through Sat. Expect fresh to locally strong NW 
to N winds in the southern and central Gulf of California this
afternoon through Fri morning as a high pressure persists over 
the Great Basin. These winds will build seas to 7 ft at the 
entrance to the Gulf of California late today through Fri morning.
Strong to near gale force N winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast
to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing large NW 
swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through Mon.
The front could bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of 
California by Sun evening into Sun night.


Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are present 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. 
Seas with these winds are 6-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are blowing 
across the Gulf of Fonseca, and downwind to near 12.5N88.5W. 
Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and downwind
to about 07N. Light to gentle winds are noted per satellite 
derived wind data elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-4 ft, except 
across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to El 
Salvador where seas are 4-7 ft due to the gap wind event in 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region through this morning. Then, mainly moderate
to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period.
Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change
in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, 
Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of
the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the
Papagayo region.


A surface trough extends from 18N124 to 10N128W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the northern
end of the trough axis from 16N to 20N between 120W and 124W.
Similar convective activity is where the trough axis meets the 
ITCZ. A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast 
waters beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. A large area of fresh 
to strong NE-E winds is noted per scatterometer data just N of 
the the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 125W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft 
across this wind zone based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh 
SE winds are noted across much of the area south of the ITCZ to 
the equator, between 110W and 140W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast 
area over the next 24 to 36 hours. The aforementioned surface 
trough will move westward, approaching 140W by Fri. The pressure 
gradient between the trough and the aforementioned ridge will 
continue to support a large area of fresh to strong winds across 
the west-central waters. Winds and seas are expected to peak
tonight, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft are expected mainly 
across the waters from 12N to 24N and W of 130W. The aerial 
coverage of these winds will decrease Fri night into Sat as a
cold front moves across the N waters weakening the ridge. The 
front is forecast to reach the forecast region early on Fri 
followed by a second and stronger cold front late on Sat. Long 
period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast
waters by Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by 
Sun night.


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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Dec-2022 09:13:51 UTC