000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will 
continue to impact the waters N of about 10N for the next 
several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. 
Currently, a cold front extends from 31N124W SW to 28N131W to
27N140W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 09N
and W of 113W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell
associated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this
swell is 9 to 12 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and 
larger set of NW swell with 13 to 20 seconds period, is arriving
tonight with peak seas around 25 ft near 31N134W. By Sat 
evening, the front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte N
of Punta Eugenia to 24N130W while weakening with rough seas of 
12 to 21 ft spreading as far south as 17N, and rough seas of 8 
to 11 ft to 07N. These high energy waves will have a period of 13
to 18 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another 
set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W by late
Sat night into early Sun, spreading across the majority of the 
waters into early next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 07N78W westward
to 07N90W to 07N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N123W to 07N132W
and beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is between the coasts of W Colombia and Ecuador to 91W or just E
of the Galapagos Islands. Similar convection extends from 06N to
11N between 102W and 108W associated with a surface trough near
106W, as well as N of the ITCZ from 05N to 10N W of 137W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03S to 14N
between 110W and 124W, and from 02S to 03N between 100W and 110W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
supported by the resultant pressure gradient between a high 
pressure system over central United States extending a ridge to
the northern Gulf of America, and lower pressure associated to 
the monsoon trough south of the area. Seas over these waters are
5 to 7 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a cold front
approaching Baja California Norte from the NW and high pressure
over New Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and
rough seas of 8 to 12 ft with a period of 8 to 12 seconds in NW
swell across the Baja California offshore waters. A pre-frontal
trough supports fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf
of California with seas to 5 ft, and moderate or weakwer winds
with seas to 3 ft elsewhere along the remainder Gulf. A weak 
pressure gradient present across the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters is generally allowing for mainly light to gentle 
winds and slightly lower seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
around 8 ft will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec into 
early on Sat. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to 
begin by Mon evening, and continue through much of the next week.
Winds there may reach gale-force starting late Tue and possibly 
continue through most of the period through Wed night. Fresh 
NW winds W of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia will diminish 
on Sat. Very rough seas from an expansive set of NW swell over 
these waters will peak to around 20 ft Sat night before gradually
subsiding afterward. Fresh to locally strong winds in the 
northern Gulf of California will diminish by early Sat. Another 
rather expansive set of NW swell expected on Sat should build 
seas to around 19 ft over the outer offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte. Rough seas will reach all the way to past 100W,
while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to 
arrive.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weakened pressure gradient is generally providing for light 
to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters. 
Slight to moderate seas are over these waters in mixed SW and NW
swell of 3 to 6 seconds period. Slightly higher winds and seas 
are possible between the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands due to clusters of moderate to strong 
convection over that region. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are 
forecast to return to the Papagayo region by late Sat night, 
reach strong speeds by Mon night, and continue through Thu. 
Moderate N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama early next week.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging 
SW and NW swell will remain through the next few days. Looking 
ahead, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW 
of the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of
the open waters.

A cold front extends from 31N124W SW to 28N131W to 27N140W. 
Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 09N and W of 
113W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated 
with a former front is ongoing. Behind the front, a reinforcing 
and larger set of NW swell with 13 to 20 seconds period, is 
arriving tonight with peak seas around 25 ft near 31N134W. This
front will sweep across the northern waters through Sat night 
while weakening as yet another cold front makes its entrance into
the far NW part of the area. Fresh to strong north to northeast 
winds will follow in behind this front as well as another set of 
long-period NW swell enters the NW waters.

Moderate to fresh trades are over the waters from 10N to 20N
west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 11 ft in long-
period northwest swell. Merging southwest and northwest swell 
supports combined seas of 7 to 9 ft over the waters S of 02N 
between 97W and 114W. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and
seas moderate.

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the northwest 
and north-central waters through Sun bringing an even larger 
reinforcing northwest swell set, possibly reaching 23 ft along 
30N. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover 
the waters north of 05N and west f 110W by late Sat night, then 
covering all of the waters west of 105W. Yet another set of large
swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the 
entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night, then across the waters
west of 95W by Tue evening. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the 
equatorial waters will diminish by early Sat. Looking ahead, 
another cold front may move into the northwest waters by the end 
of the weekend and into early next week bringing a large area of 
fresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in behind
the front. An additional pulse of large northwest swell will be 
following in behind this front.

$$
Ramos