000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N80W to 1007 mb low pres near 
11N88W then to 07N94W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing
on to 04.5N103W to 06.5N116W, where it breaks for a surface 
trough. The ITCZ resumes at 08N131W and extends beyond 05.5N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06.5N to
12.5N between 82W and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is occurring from 02N to 07.5N between 105W and 113W,
from 11.5N to 16.5N between 115W and 126W, and south of 02.5N 
between 127W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the Gulf of America and lower pressure with
the monsoon trough over the eastern Tropical Pacific is forcing 
fresh to strong N gap winds extending southward to near 14N, 
with seas 7-9 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. 
Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high 
offshore of Southern California and lower pressure with a trough
over the Gulf of California is forcing only gentle to moderate N
to NE winds over the Pacific waters of Baja California, and 
moderate to locally fresh N winds over the northern Gulf of 
California. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell over Pacific offshore 
waters north of the Revillagigedo Islands, and 5-7 ft from Las 
Tres Marias south and southeastward. Seas over the Gulf of 
California are 2-4 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to near gale- force northerly winds and 
rough seas to 8 ft will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
Wed morning. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the 
upcoming weekend. Moderate to large NW swell will impact the 
Baja California waters into early this week. Fresh to strong 
winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft may reach the offshore 
waters of Baja California late in the week, associated with a 
frontal system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A 1007 mb low - now denoted as Invest EP96 - is centered near 
11N88W, and drifting west-northwestward. Fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft within 90 NM of its center in the
N semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
observed within 90 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft in mixed
SW and W swell.

For the forecast, some modest development of Invest EP96 is 
possible through Mon while the system drifts slowly northwestward
and away from the coastline. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional 
development as the system turns westward away from land. There is
a low chance for tropical cyclone development with this system.
However, showers and thunderstorms will remain active this
evening through at least Mon morning across the waters and along
the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds 
will funnel across the Papagayo region north of the invest area 
this evening, then pulse at fresh to strong through early this 
week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or 
weaker winds, and moderate seas, will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends from a 1023 mb high near 34N128W southward into
the Tropical Pacific waters and southeastward to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. The moderate pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only 
moderate to locally strong trades, with strongest winds occurring
north of a surface trough from 09N126W to 15N122W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring near the trough
from 11.5N to 16.5N between 115W and 126W. Large NW swell is 
reaching south to 09N and east of 110W this afternoon, producing
seas of 8 to 14 ft, highest NW portions. Also, mixed SE and SW
swell is merging with the NW swell to produce seas of 7-9 ft 
south of 05N and west of 96W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will amplify some, 
increasing the trades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W Mon 
night into Wed. While the current NW swell will gradually 
subside, another reinforcing pulse of swell will be entering the
NW forecast waters later this afternoon and evening. The large 
NW swell will reach from 20N140W to 20N120W Tue night. The mixed
swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next 
several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our 
NW border at 30N140W Wed bringing with it fresh to strong NW 
winds and very large seas north of 22N through at least Thu. 

$$
Stripling