413 
AXNT20 KNHC 031646
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands near 28W, 
extending from 03N to 16N, and moving W at around 15 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to
13N between 25W and 30W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning.
The axis of the wave extends from inland E Venezuela to 19N and is
near 63W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 10N to 16N between 59W and 66W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 08N57W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is evident from 11N to 14N E of 
20W, as well as from 05N to 11N between 30W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic SW across 
the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb
high in the central to NW Gulf. This supports light to gentle 
winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with
a surface trough. Aside from the moderate winds, the surface 
trough in the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to 
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds 
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week. These winds are
the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. 
Slight to moderate seas are expected.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on
convection in the eastern Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the 
islands and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW 
Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring in the eastern Caribbean away from areas of convection
associated with the tropical wave near 63W. Elsewhere, moderate 
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E 
Pacific extension of the monsoon continues to support scattered 
moderate convection over the waters offshore of Costa Rica and 
Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Tue night. Expect winds to 
reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will 
continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and 
thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean today due to a 
tropical wave with axis along 63W. The wave and its associated 
moisture will reach Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters on
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, extends from a 
1017 mb low pressure near 31N73W to the SE FL coast. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and near the
trough axis as well as across much of the central and northern
Bahamas. Another surface trough runs from 31N66W to 29N60W to
30N56W, and is aiding in the development of scattered moderate
convection from 27N to 30N between 53W and 68W. An upper level low
north of the Dominican Republic is also aiding in the development
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the waters
N of the Dominican Republic and E of the Turks and Caicos. Otherwise,
the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the 
subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting mainly moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the waters S of 20N.
Fresh to locally strong trades are confirmed by a 1341 UTC
scatterometer pass across areas from 10N to 15N between 50W and
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas 
prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough, remnants of an 
old frontal boundary, extends from a 1018 mb low pressure located 
north of area near 32N73W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. The 
trough will gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward
toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then 
build westward into central Florida through early next week. This 
pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 
22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. 

$$
Adams