000
AXNT20 KNHC 072300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu May 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11.5N15.5W and 
extends southwestward to 02.5N27W to 03N30W. The ITCZ continues 
from 03N30W to 06N43W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. 
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is 
ongoing from 00N to 06N between 06W and 24W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 09.5N between 37W and 53W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward 
across Florida and into the north-central Gulf. A broad area of 
low pressure extends over east-central Mexico and the adjacent
southwestern Gulf waters. A front is stationary across the
northwestern Gulf from near Brownsville, TX to the SE Louisiana
coast and in to southern MS. The resultant pressure gradient 
between these features is supporting fresh to strong SE winds to
the W of 86W and gentle to moderate SE winds elsewhere. Near the
front, strong convection across the Louisiana coast and coastal
waters has shifted eastward into the MS and AL waters north of 
27N, and have left an outflow boundary south of the front 
propagating southward, and now along 25.5N. Little to no 
convection is currently along the outflow boundary. Seas are 6 to
9 ft north of the front offshore of TX and LA, and 5 to 6 ft near
the LA coast. Elsewhere across the W half of the basin, seas are5
to 8 ft in SE waves, except 2 to 4 ft across the Bay of Campeche.
E of 88W seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 3 ft or less over the east 
and northeastern waters.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
producing strong gusty winds are occurring along and just east of
a stationary front over the NW Gulf. This area of weather will
remain active tonight as it continues to shift eastward across 
the north central and into the northeast Gulf. The front will 
remain nearly stationary over the northern Gulf on Thu, then begin
to move SE across the Gulf waters by Fri morning, reaching from 
SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Then, the cold front will 
extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico
by Sat morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 
moderate to rough seas will follow the front. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 
conditions across some sections of the W and SE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad area of low pressure SSW of Bermuda continues to prevent
the Bermuda High from building into the Caribbean basin, and is 
maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean. This is 
resulting in moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, 
except for localized fresh winds across the Gulf of Honduras and
through the Yucatan Channel, through the Windward Passage, and in 
the lee of Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin,
except 4 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and across central
portions. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue in a
west to east band from 14N to 17N to the E of 72W, across the
Leeward Islands and into the adjacent Atlantic, supported by
westerly winds aloft occurring across the base of a broad upper
trough across the Atlantic. 

For the forecast, the broad low pressure between Puerto Rico and
Bermuda will drift NW and weaken through Sat, and will then
finally allow Atlantic high pressure to build across the basin
late Sat through early next week. E to SE winds will pulse fresh 
to strong N of Honduras at night through Fri night. Gentle to 
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast over the 
remainder of the basin through Fri, including in the Tropical N 
Atlantic, before increasing this weekend as the Atlantic high 
pressure begins to build across the basin. Winds will start to 
increase to fresh speeds in the central Caribbean and off Colombia
Fri night, then to fresh to strong speeds Sat through the 
remainder of the upcoming weekend. Unsettled weather is expected 
to continue over the eastern Caribbean through at least Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1014 mb low pressure is centered S-SW of Bermuda near
28N67W, and is a surface reflection of a deep layered upper-level
low over that same location, and broad upper trough cover the
area N of 17N between 55W and 78W. Showers and thunderstorms
remain active to the east of the surface low, N of 24N between 57W
and 66W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue
to develop between 48W and a surface trough extending from the 
central Lesser Antilles northeastward to near 22N57W, supported by
divergence aloft just east of the broad upper trough. At the
surface, the pressure gradient between the broad low pressure 
and 1033 mb high pressure centered over the central Atlantic is 
supporting fresh to locally strong southeast to east winds and 
moderate to rough seas to 10 ft north and northeast of the low to
48W. The 1033 mb high drapes across the broad low pressure and
extends a weak ridge southwestward into the Bahamas and central
Florida, where light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail, except
moderate east winds through the southern and central Bahamas. Otherwise,
a broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the central and 
eastern subtropical Atlantic, with cold front sinking southward
along 30N between 30W to 42W, and a pair of remnant frontal 
troughs north of 21.5N between 12W and 28W. Moderate to locally
fresh trade winds prevail across this area E of 45W, with 
moderate seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure near 28N67W will
drift NW and gradually weaken through Sat. The pressure gradient 
between the low pressure and strong high pressure located over 
the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong E to SE winds 
and moderate to rough seas north and east of the low center
through Thu before diminishing on Fri. The low pressure will 
meander near 27N between 65W and 70W over the next couple of days,
and open up into a trough by Sat morning. A stationary front 
along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. coast will gradually
lift back northwest as warm front on Thu, then may slowly push 
offshore again at the end of the week and into the upcoming 
weekend. 

$$
Stripling