000
AXNT20 KNHC 151012
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W to 06N19W. The 
ITCZ continues westward from 06N19W through 02N35W to near the 
French Guiana coast at 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 15W-46W. A surface trough is analyzed along 53W
and S of 14N. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevail from
45W-53W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters near 
Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1017 mb high at
the east-central Gulf to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate
to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present at the 
northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas exist
at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas
at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure over eastern Gulf will drift 
northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and merge with the 
Atlantic ridge through Fri. This will maintain fresh to briefly 
strong SE to S return flow across most of the western Gulf through
the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface ridge N of the area is sustaining trade winds across 
the entire basin. Convergent trades are producing scattered 
showers near the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. 
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are
evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to ESE 
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist elsewhere in the northwestern 
basin, including waters near the Windward Passage. Mostly fresh NE
to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen the south-central and 
southeastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft 
are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate ENE to E winds with
4 to 6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure across the 
western Atlantic extending a ridge southwestward into the Bahamas 
will support fresh trades E of 80W through today. The high 
pressure will then slide SE and across the central Atlantic 
subtropical waters through the weekend, which will keep mainly 
moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean 
through Fri night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds through 
the weekend. Fresh trades and moderate to rough seas in easterly 
trade wind swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters 
and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong
E winds will develop each night across the Gulf of Honduras 
through the weekend.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed along 28N between 36W-62W. Scattered 
showers are occurring within 90 nm of the boundary mainly E of
45W. Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered moderate 
convection southwest of Bermuda, north of 28N between 64W and 
75W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional 
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are
evident near the surface trough, north of 25N between 35W and 
65W. A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1021 mb 
high near 30N27W to beyond the central Bahamas. This feature is 
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft from 22N to
28N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE to 
SSW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 22N and west of 
65W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 22N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas of 6 
to 9 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7
ft in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic 
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail S of 25N and E of 75W, while light to moderate SE winds 
prevail elsewhere. The high will slide SE and into the central 
Atlantic through the upcoming weekend, with ridging extending 
westward into central Florida. This will gradually lead to 
anticyclonic winds across the entire area by the weekend. Moderate
to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and E swell will 
prevail south of 22N this week, including across the Atlantic 
passages into the eastern Caribbean.

$$
ERA