000
AXNT20 KNHC 160421
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, south of 18N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N 
to 12N and between 18W and 26W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, south of 20N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N 
to 21N and between 54W and 61W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues 
to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 11N55W. Aside from 
convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 28W and 46W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Hernando Beach, Florida to Fort 
Walton Beach, Florida. A pressure gradient prevails elsewhere 
over the gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken over the next 
couple of days as it slowly drifts southward and dissipates by 
Thu. A strong ridge over the Eastern United States will support 
fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough seas starting in the 
NE Gulf late tonight and spreading over the rest of the northern 
Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will 
move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through 
Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE 
winds. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri, allowing for 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the 
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to near gale E winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail 
over the south central Caribbean. Gentle winds and slight seas are
over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate 
seas, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure will continue to support fresh to 
locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will persist 
through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and 
slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to fresh 
mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba 
through Wed night. Winds will diminish across the basin by the end
of the week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient 
relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, 
Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas, 
prevail N of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to 
26N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the 
trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion 
waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail N
of 22N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas 
are found elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will shift 
southward over the next couple of days and dissipate by Thu. A 
tight pressure gradient between the building ridge over the 
eastern United States and the front will result in fresh to 
locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the 
Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve 
later Thu into Fri. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the
SE Bahamas and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few 
days as the system shifts northwestward.

$$
ERA