000
AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N16W and continues to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from
08N26W to 08.5N39W, where it is broken by a surface trough. The
ITCZ then resumes from 08N43W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 15W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the Tennessee Valley extends a ridge across 
the Gulf. The pressure gradient tightens over the eastern half of 
the Gulf due to the presence of a stationary front N of the 
Bahamas and a trough near the Yucatan Peninsula. This is 
resulting in moderate to fresh NE winds E of 93W along with 
moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds prevail W
of 93W.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a high 
pressure system over the Tennessee Valley and troughs over the 
southern Gulf will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds and moderate seas in the E Gulf into Mon. Looking ahead, 
expect fresh SE to S winds over much of the eastern Gulf through 
late Mon between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a 
cold front moving through the Southern Plains. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The passage of a stationary front over the SW N Atlantic waters is
supporting a weak gradient over the Caribbean waters W of 76W,
thus leading to light to gentle winds and slight seas. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere. A surface trough
extending from the Windward Passage into the central Caribbean is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 15N
between 70W and 76W.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will 
continue south of 15N through the eastern, central and portions of
the SW Caribbean through Sun night. Light to gentle breezes are 
forecast elsewhere into early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system over the
NW Atlantic and a stationary front extending across the offshore 
zones N of 27N to a 1012 mb low N of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong 
NE winds and rough seas prevail N of the front and W of 60W. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along 
and N of the front between 50W and 75W, as well as along a pre- 
frontal trough analyzed along 70-71W. The aforementioned 
stationary front connects to a cold front near 29N35W and extends 
NE to 31N30W. Scattered showers and tstms are N of 25N and ahead 
of the front to 23W. Moderate to fresh winds are E of 60W and 
behind the front with seas of 6-8 ft. Otherwise, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, A stationary front extends east to
west along roughly 29N to a 1012 mb low pressure area centered 
near the northern Bahamas, then southwestward to the Florida 
Straits. Scattered to numerous tstms are active along a trough 
near 70W north of 22N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough 
seas will persist north of the front into next week as the low 
pressure moves northeastward to past Bermuda and the newly 
reinforced front moves to the southeast then stalls along 24N.

$$
Adams