000
AXNT20 KNHC 121714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1714 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stronger cold front is 
expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight 
accompanied by fresh to strong winds on either side of it. The 
front is expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern 
Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and 
stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. Fresh to gale-force 
winds southwest winds will precede the front, with the gale-force 
winds being confined to north of about 29N Friday night. Winds
will decrease bellow gale-force Sat afternoon. The cold front 
portion will shift east of 55W late Sun while the stationary 
portion weakens. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 09N14W and 
extends to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from that point to near 
08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 02N to 05N 
and east of 21.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A pre-frontal trough extends from 21N95W to 26N03W. Isolated 
moderate convection is depicted along the trough axis. A mid-level
trough is supporting isolated to scattered showers across the 
basin. Moderate or weaker winds along with seas 1-4 ft prevails, 
except for seas to 5 ft offshore of Veracruz. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front in the far NW Gulf will 
sweep across the basin through tonight exiting the area early on 
Fri. A pre-frontal trough in the western Gulf will sustain fresh 
to locally strong northwest to north winds near Tampico and 
Veracruz through Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to locally 
fresh N winds are expected in the wake of the cold front. High 
pressure will build southward into the region this weekend, with 
increasing easterly winds as the high shifts eastward Sun. Fresh 
to strong east winds are likely across portions of the northern 
Gulf starting on Sun as the pressure gradient increases. Looking 
ahead, a second cold front should move offshore the Texas coast 
Mon morning. The strong east winds will shift to mostly the NE 
Gulf Mon and Mon night as the front translates eastward across the
Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the region
and a 1008 mb low offshore Colombia is causing fresh to strong 
trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere 
winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. A trough extends 
from 22N83W to 17N85W in the NW Caribbean. This is promoting 
scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection 
north of 13N between the trough and 79W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the 
central and eastern Caribbean into tonight, with mainly moderate 
winds elsewhere. The pressure gradient will diminish starting Fri 
as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, leading to a 
weakening of the trades. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 
likely behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat and 
Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trades may become 
reestablished over the south central Caribbean early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N75W to south of Fort Pierce,
Florida, where it becomes stationary along the Florida Peninsula.  
Scattered moderate convection prevail north of 27N between 
71W-79W. Southwest fresh to strong winds are ahead of the cold 
front with seas 4-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is depicted
from central Cuba to 29N between 63W and 79W. Similar convection
is also found from 20N to 27N between 57W and 61W. Two weak 
frontal boundaries extend across the subtropical north Atlantic - 
one from 27N55W to 31N35W and one from 21N44W to 26N15W. These 
fronts have diminished the typical pressure gradient across 
forecast waters, resulting the remainder of winds across the area 
being moderate or weaker. Seas are 8-11 ft north of 23N east of 
30W due to residual W swell. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southwest winds 
ahead of a weak cold front off the NE Florida coast will diminish 
later today as the front dissipates. A new stronger cold front is 
expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight 
accompanied by fresh to strong winds on either side of it. The 
front is expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern 
Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and 
stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. Fresh to gale-force 
winds southwest winds will precede the front, with the gale-force 
winds being confined to north of about 29N. The cold front portion
will shift east of 55W late Sun while the stationary portion 
weakens. On Sun, winds will briefly diminish below fresh speeds 
over the forecast waters. Looking ahead, a building Bermuda High 
should increase northeast winds up to fresh to strong speeds south
of 27N west of 65W. 

$$ KRV