580 
AXNT20 KNHC 300544
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri May 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave near 66W south of 18N is moving 
westward across the eastern Caribbean at 10 to 15 kt. The 
tropical wave may be enhancing a few thunderstorms inland over 
Venezuela. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic over the coast of
Senegal near 16N16W and extends southwestward to 08N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N20W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is 
active from 02N to 07N between 17W and 54W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean to the Colombia Low. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed in the SW Caribbean S of 11N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A pair of surface troughs are analyzed over the N Gulf, but with 
no notable convection noted across the basin. Areas of smoke from 
agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico are causing 
slight limitations to visibility, primarily over the western Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E winds are confirmed via scatterometer data 
near the Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough is analyzed. 
Moderate or weaker winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf.
Seas off the northern Yucatan Peninsula are 3 to 5 ft, with 1 to 
3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend as a trough 
develops daily and moves westward. Moderate E to SE winds will 
prevail over the central and western Gulf of America through Fri. 
Moderate to locally fresh W winds are expected to develop Fri 
afternoon in the northeastern Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving 
through the southern U.S. The front will push into the basin late 
Fri into Sat, with moderate N winds expected in the wake of the 
front Sat morning. High pressure will build over the northeastern 
Gulf early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A strong subtropical ridge remains in place over the Atlantic. Recent
scatterometer data confirmed fresh to strong trade winds across a
large portion of the central Caribbean between 69W and 80W, with 
winds locally near gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to
strong E winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate 
to fresh trades prevail over the E and SW Caribbean, with 
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are ongoing 
across much of the central and SW Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are
analyzed over the E Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, with 3 to
5 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are 
expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean through 
Fri. Winds may pulse to near-gale force late tonight offshore of 
northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to 
strong winds and moderate to rough seas are then expected across 
the eastern and central basin this weekend. Elsewhere, fresh to 
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through 
this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from weak 1019 mb low pressure centered
near 31N46W to 26N58W and then is stationary to 27N64W. Moderate
to fresh SW winds are noted from the front southward to 28N and
eastward to 44W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this region. Farther east,
a surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 35N25W to
south of the low pressure near 24N50W. Gentle to moderate E 
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 20N, except for off 
the north coast of Hispaniola where E winds are moderate to fresh.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are ongoing 
south of 20N. Elsewhere, an upper level shortwave trough over the
SE US is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
off the SE US coast, affecting the waters N of 27N between 76W and
the Florida Coast.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds 
will develop offshore of Florida and north of the Bahamas by early
Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected north 
of 28N and west of 65W by early Sat as a cold front moves into the
western Atlantic. Winds will turn to the W and slowly diminish 
behind the front Sat through Sat night, before the front weakens 
and lifts northeastward on Sun. High pressure will build in the 
wake of the front into next week. 

$$
Adams