000
AXNT20 KNHC 062311
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N
to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 06N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Gambia near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 10N19W. The 
ITCZ extends from 10N19W to 05N40W and then from 05N42W to 
05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 42W-52W, and within 60 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 28W-31W and between 35W-40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic
westward to near 94W. It is maintaining fairly tranquil
conditions throughout. The associated gradient is allowing for
gentle to moderate southeast winds across the basin, except for 
light winds over the NE gulf and fresh northeast to east winds 
along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the central Gulf sections
and in the Bay of Campeche. 

satellite imagery shows isolated small showers and thunderstorms 
over the western Bay of Campeche, and from 20N to 23N west of  
94W.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge 
into the eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward 
into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Moderate 
to fresh, locally strong, northeast to east winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and 
into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and 
moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds across the 
western and south- central Gulf through Mon between a trough over
northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the
eastern portion of the Pacific monsoon trough are found across the
SW Caribbean. Meanwhile, low-level convergence is noted in the SE
Caribbean, resulting in shower activity impacting the Windward
Islands and nearby waters.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures present to its south is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean and mostly
fresh trades elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades are in the Gulf 
of Honduras. Seas across the basin are 5 to 8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). 

satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection confined to the southwestern section of the sea
associated with the eastern portion of the Pacific monsoon 
trough. An area of scattered showers and e found across the SW 
Caribbean. Isolated showers moving westward with the trades are 
over the far southeastern section of the sea, south of about 14N 
and east of 65W to the vicinity of the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the region and
that is located to the northwest of Bermuda will shift
northeastward and into the north-central Atlantic through the 
weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build southwestward toward 
he Bahamas and South Florida late Sat through the middle of next
week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and 
moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin and Gulf 
of Honduras through Sat, then increase and spread to across most 
of the basin Sat night through the middle of next week, except in
the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Seas will build to 
rough with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N 
Atlantic by early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A trough extends to near 31N80W from a developing gale low
that is just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. A cold 
front extends from the same low southwestward to 31N76W and 
to 29N79W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
ahead of the front to near 71W and north of 30N. Moderate to 
locally fresh southwest winds and moderate seas are evident 
north of 29N and west of 73W. Farther east, a stationary front 
enters the basin through 31N58W and continues southwestward to 
near 26N66W. A trough then extends from 26N65W to near 23N70W.
Isolated showers are possible near these boundaries. Moderate to
locally fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are 
occurring north of stationary front. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of 
high pressure. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate 
to fresh trades between 35W and 60W. Seas of 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) 
are over these same waters Similar winds and seas are evident 
east of 35W and from 12N and 25N. Fresh to locally strong north 
winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are noted north of 28N 
and east of 14W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary 
front will lift back north tonight and dissipate. Weak high 
pressure northwest of the front will shift NE and into the 
central Atlantic through Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then 
build modestly west-southwestward into the Bahamas and South 
Florida Sun through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. 
Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening 
offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to 
fresh winds off northeastern Florida and elsewhere south of 22N.

$$
Aguirre