000
AXNT20 KNHC 301747
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 
south Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data shows strong
gale force winds up to 45 kt off Veracruz, Mexico, where very 
rough seas to 19 ft are confirmed by a recent altimeter pass. 
Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will 
persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late today. Seas 
will peak around 21 ft off Veracruz today. Conditions will improve
from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extending from a
storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters 
near 31N31W and extends to 18N55W, where it becomes a stationary 
front that extends northwestward toward the Bahamas. Large N swell
generated from this system is producing very rough seas greater 
than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 24N between 33W and 
54W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually 
subsiding from south to north through the week. Rough seas greater
than 8 ft cover the waters N of 16N between 26W and 63W. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 03N28W to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough between 12W and 38W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above about a gale 
warning in the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front extends from south Florida to the Bay of 
Campeche. Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds
are N of the front and E of 90W, with strong to near gale winds N
of the front W of 90W. SE of the front, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Rough to very rough seas prevail behind the front with 
slight seas ahead of the front.

For the forecast, gale force N to NW winds and very rough seas 
peaking near 21 ft will prevail in the western Bay of Campeche 
through late tonight, in the wake of a cold front sweeping over 
the southern Gulf of America. Fresh to strong N winds and rough 
seas occurring over much of the basin behind the front will slowly
diminish from north to south this afternoon through Wed morning. 
High pressure is expected to build over the basin on Wed, 
supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas region-wide 
through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh W to SW winds may develop over 
the northern Gulf by late week, ahead of a low pressure system 
moving across the southern United States. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the south 
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are
in the north central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere winds are 
moderate or weaker with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse in 
the south-central Caribbean into early Thu as low pressure 
prevails over northern Colombia. Locally rough seas will be 
possible offshore of northern Colombia into early Wed. Elsewhere, 
a cold front moving through the southern Gulf of America will 
enter the northwestern Caribbean by this afternoon, supporting 
fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas from the Yucatan 
Channel through the northwestern basin through Wed. Following the 
front, high pressure will build over the Gulf of America, 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the central and 
western Caribbean through late week. Over the Atlantic waters, 
rough seas in N swell will prevail through late Thu, with seas 
subsiding by Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a 
significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

Near the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section,
scattered moderate convection is seen along and roughly 200 nm
ahead of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are also ahead of 
the front, generally N of 25N and E of the front to about 25W. 
Fresh to strong NW winds are seen behind the front N of 27N and E 
of 50W. Outside of the area in the Special Features section, a 
cold front extends from 31N70W to south Florida. Fresh to strong 
winds are N of 27N and E of the front to 58W, with fresh to strong
NW winds W of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft
range. A 1018 mb high is centered near 27N55W. Light to gentle 
winds are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, 
and seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NW swell 
associated with a cold front in the central tropical Atlantic, 
east of 65W, will slowly subside from west to east through Wed 
morning. A cold front extending from 31N70W southwestward through 
South Florida will progress eastward through midweek, supporting 
fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the 
front, generally north of 26N, through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW 
winds and rough seas in NW swell are expected in the wake of the 
front into Wed. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong W winds and
rough seas may develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thu 
as a cold front passes north of the waters. Otherwise, weak high 
pressure building over the western tropical Atlantic will support 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the 
waters for late week.

$$
Adams