000
AXNT20 KNHC 030621
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Feb 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 00Z UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  
UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: 
A cold front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
through 31N. Large NW swell behind this front is producing 12 to 
18 ft seas across the western and central Atlantic, between 48W 
and 73E. As the front moves east-nrotheasward into the central and
western Atlantic and weaken Tue through Wed, the NW swell can 
still produce 12 to 15 ft seas in both basins. By Thu night, the 
swell should shift west of 35W and north of 31N.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts at
websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Bissau coast near
Conakry, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ continues
west-southwestward from 05N18W to 01N43W to north of Belem, 
Brazil at 01N43W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen from 02N to 04N and east of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1030 mb high to
near Tampico, Mexico is dominating the entire Gulf. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft exist at the northeastern Gulf.
Fresh to strong southerly winds with 6 to 8 ft SSA prevail at the
northwestern and west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will move toward the NE Gulf 
tonight allowing a fresh to strong southerly return flow to 
develop over the western Gulf. These winds will persist through 
late Tue. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed 
morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through Thu 
evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will 
follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the
Gulf area Thu night into Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A stationary front reaches southwestward from Puerto Rico to 
northern Colombia where it is helping to induce scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are present across the central and part
of the western basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to
5 ft dominate the northwestern basin. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the 
central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the
E as high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture 
associated with this frontal boundary will remain and move 
westward across the central Caribbean on Tue, reaching the coast 
of Nicaragua on Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected
to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, bringing fresh to strong N
winds and building seas. The front will move quickly across the 
basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu 
night into Fri while weakening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the 
significant swell event occurring over portions of the northwest 
tropical Atlantic. 

A cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 
21N63W where it then continues as a stationary front across Puerto
Rico and into the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds 
are on either side of the front north of 23N, with similar winds
south of 20N including through the Windward and Mona Passages. 
Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of
the front as described above. Rough seas are ahead of the front 
to the north of 28N. Another cold front is well to the east, 
extending from the coast of Morocco at 25N15W to 25N32W. High 
pressure of 1024 mb dominates in the wake and across the remainder
of the open waters. Rough to very rough NW swell covers the 
waters north of 25N and east of 40W in the wake of this cold 
front. Fresh to strong NE-E trades are found south of the front to
10N between Africa and 45W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail across the remainder of the open waters. Seas are 6 to 9 
ft across the remainder of the open waters including across the 
fresh to strong trades.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas are ahead of the front. 
The north part of the front will continue to move eastward while 
the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the 
vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through 
early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead 
of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. 
Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is 
expected with the next cold front. 

$$

Chan