960 
AXNT20 KNHC 191615
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800Z UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 02N11W to 02N30W and to 02N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N southward along the 
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The combination of surface ridging over the eastern Gulf and lower
pressure over Mexico is resulting in a pressure gradient that is 
supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds basin-wide. Seas are 
slight east of 86W and moderate elsewhere. The southerly flow in 
the western Gulf is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in 
southern Mexico northward. Mariners are advised that this may 
reduce the visibility in the area. Aside from lower visibility 
from the smoke mainly over the southwestern portion of the basin, 
dense fog is ongoing over the northern Gulf waters, east of 86W 
and north of 28N. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf 
through Fri. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-
central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and
night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. A 
strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf this weekend 
and shift across the basin through early next week. Gale force 
winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz 
Sun night into Mon. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad subtropical ridge centered southeast of Bermuda continues
to affect the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force
NE to E winds and rough seas in the south-central and portions of
the southwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E winds and 
moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern 
Caribbean. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong SE winds and 
seas to 6 ft are ongoing.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the 
south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and 
the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night 
offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near 
and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of 
Honduras into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds are expected over the rest of the Caribbean basin 
through the forecast period. Rough seas will develop east of the 
Lesser Antilles tonight into the weekend as N swell progresses 
through the central tropical Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of both the
Bermuda and Azores Highs, which extend a ridge across the 
tropical Atlantic waters. Between both ridges, a slow moving cold 
front extends from 31N39W to 28N46W where it stalls while 
continuing to 24N69W. Over the southwestern, North Atlantic 
waters, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, however rough seas to
11 ft prevails east of 65W to about 34W. Over the far eastern 
subtropical Atlantic, winds are fresh to locally strong, including
the Canary Islands, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Over the tropical 
Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are present west of 35W.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 70W will slowly 
subside from west to east through early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate 
to locally fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of northern 
Florida into this weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are expected 
elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of 
the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with increasing winds and rapidly 
building seas expected in the wake of the front through early next
week. 

$$
Nepaul