000
AXNT20 KNHC 121528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to
05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 05S35W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N 
between 19W and 26W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coast from 
N Florida Panhandle to Texas. South of this boundary, a 1022 mb 
high pressure centered near 25N86W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail west of the Yucatan peninsula with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri, bringing light
to gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to 
fresh speeds Fri night ahead of a cold front that will moves 
across the west and central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong winds
and rough seas are expected in the northern Gulf with this 
frontal system, forecast to move SE of the area late on Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over these
waters. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail elsewhere,
except gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. Seas over these
waters are in the 4-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, pulsing winds to near gale-force are expected 
near the coast of Colombia again tonight due to the pressure 
gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low and high pressure 
centered N of the region. Winds will continue to pulse to strong 
speeds nightly thereafter, with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through 
the upcoming weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the waters from 31N67W to N Florida.
Strong to near- gale force winds and seas of 8-12 ft prevail N of
27N and southeast of the front to 55W. N of the front, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail. High pressure
with gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. Seas are generally in the 8-10 ft range E of 
55W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front has entered the north 
waters and extends from near Bermuda to N Florida. Ahead of the 
front, strong SW to W winds will prevail N of 28N, along with 
rough to very rough seas. These hazardous marine conditions will 
spread east through tonight, then diminish Fri as the front 
weakens. By Fri night the cold front will extend from near 31N55W 
to the SE Bahamas, and the boundary will sag SE and out of the 
area Sat night. On Sun, S winds will increase to strong speeds 
offshore Florida, in advance of 

$$
AL