000
AXNT20 KNHC 302205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has exited the basin 
this afternoon. It its wake, strong high pressure building 
southward into the region is prompting gales of up to 45 off 
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, with seas of up to 19 ft. Gale force 
winds and very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of 
Campeche through this evening. Winds will subside overnight into 
Wed, but rough seas will continue into Wed evening.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extending from a
storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters 
near 31N29W and extends to 20N55W, where it becomes a stationary 
front that extends west to N of Puerto Rico. Large N swell 
generated from this system is producing very rough seas greater 
than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 22N between 31W and 
53W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually 
subsiding from south to north through late week. Rough seas 
greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 15N between 26W and 63W. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 03N30W to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough from 03N to 07N between 13W and 38W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above regarding a gale 
warning in the SW Gulf of America.

A strong cold front has exited the basin this afternoon, leaving
fresh to strong winds in its wake basin-wide. Rough seas dominate
waters S of 28N, with moderate seas to the north. 

For the forecast, winds will diminish from north to south through Wed 
morning. High pressure is expected to build over the basin on Wed,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas region-wide 
through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh W to SW winds may develop over 
the northern Gulf by late week, ahead of a low pressure system 
moving across the southern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel this 
afternoon. Behind the front, strong N winds and rough seas are 
developing. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail over 
the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 
4-7 ft are in the north central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere 
winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse in 
the south-central Caribbean into early Thu as low pressure 
prevails over northern Colombia. Locally rough seas will be 
possible offshore of northern Colombia into early Wed. Elsewhere, 
a cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean will support 
fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas in the wake of the 
front, from the Yucatan Channel through the northwestern basin 
through Wed. Following the front, high pressure will build over 
the Gulf of America, leading to moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
over the central and western Caribbean through late week. Over the
Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell will prevail through late 
Thu, with seas subsiding by Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on  
significant swell causing very rough seas in the central 
Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N29W to 20N55W. E of the front to 25W,
and N of 28W, scattered moderate convection and fresh to locally
strong SW winds are ongoing. Behind the front to 45W, and N of
29N, fresh W to NW winds are ongoing. Another cold front extends
from Bermuda through the central Bahamas and into Western Cuba. N
of 25W, along and within 200 nm ahead of the front, fresh to
locally strong SW winds and rough seas prevail. Behind the front,
fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate. In the deep
tropics, S of 15N, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft
are present. Elsewhere, winds and seas are moderate or less.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NW swell 
associated with a cold front in the central tropical Atlantic, 
east of 64W, will slowly subside from west to east by early Wed. A
cold front extending from 31N66W southwestward through the 
central Bahamas and northwestern Cuba will progress eastward 
through midweek, supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds and 
rough seas ahead of the front, generally north of 26N, through 
Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas in NW swell are 
expected in the wake of the front into Wed. Looking ahead, fresh 
to locally strong W winds and rough seas may develop off the coast
of northern Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the 
waters. Otherwise, weak high pressure building over the western 
tropical Atlantic will support moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week. 

$$
Konarik