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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 040516

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM Sat Apr 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is forecast to start over the central Atlantic tonight, and
last through early Sunday. A cold front will produce gale force winds
north of 30N between 53W-58W with seas 15-18 ft. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website for more details.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N37W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of both boundaries.


A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of 04/0300 
UTC, the front is located just west of Houston and just west of 
Corpus Christi, then crosses the Texas/Mexico border near 
27N99W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is mostly 
inland over Texas, but starting to emerge into the NW Gulf, 
currently from 27N-32N between 94W-99W. Some scattered showers 
are seen over the central Gulf. This is due to abundant moisture 
seen on TPW imagery and upper-level diffluence in the area. Weak 
high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf is maintaining 
gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf. Moderate easterly 
winds are noted over the western Gulf, except over the south-
central Gulf due to the thermal trough from the west coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern 
Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility over the 
southwest Gulf.

Weak high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf will 
shift eastward through tonight in response to low pressure and 
an associated cold front that is advancing eastward over the
central U.S. The front is expected to reach the Texas coast today, 
then become stationary before it lifts back north as a warm front 
Sun. This front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the 
far NW Gulf through tonight. High pressure from off the Carolina
coast will slide southward early next week setting up an east to
west ridge across the area. This will allow for generally light to
moderate east to southeast winds over the basin through Wed night.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of
the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as thermal troughs emerge
off the Peninsula to across SW Gulf.


A stationary front extends from 20N72W to 19.5N76W. Isolated 
showers are near the front and over Hispaniola. Dry air covers 
most of the Caribbean. Cloudiness and isolated showers are 
within 60 nm of the coast of South America, due to higher 
moisture content to the south, as seen on TPW imagery. The 
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds south of 13.5N between 61W-
78W, with a small area of strong winds near the coast of 
Colombia. Moderate winds are elsewhere south of 14.5N. Winds are 
10 kt or less over the northern Caribbean, north of 14.5N.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the
middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the
western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night
beginning tonight over the Gulf of Honduras and especially
along the coast of Colombia.


A gale is forecast for the central Atlantic beginning tonight. See
Special Features section above. 

A slow-moving cold front reaching from 32N43W to 29N51W to 
23N62W to 20N71W is associated with a complex low well north of 
the area off New England and the mid-Atlantic. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front, mainly north 
of 29N and east of 50W. Recent scatterometer data indicate 
strong W to NW winds north of 29N between 62W-76W, with fresh 
winds elsewhere north of 27N between the cold front and 75W. 
Fresh SW winds are within 210 nm SE of the cold front, mainly 
north of 23N. N swell covers much of the central and western 
Atlantic, to the east of the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high centered 
near 23N43W is producing light to moderate winds in the 14N-24N 
latitude band across the entire Atlantic and Caribbean. In the 
far east Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 32N15W through 
the Canary Islands to 24N19W. The front is not producing any 
significant weather.

The cold front extending from 23N62W to the Windward Passage 
will slowly move eastward to the east of the Leeward Islands 
near 18N62W by Mon morning. Gale conditions are expected near 
31N65W this evening and tonight as a deep low pressure system 
centered southeast of New England drops southeastward passing 
just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North swell generated by the 
low will produce very large seas across the waters east and 
northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will 
gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays. 
High pressure will shift southward between Bermuda and the 
Bahamas Mon night into Tue. It will then shift southeastward 
through Wed night as a cold front moves off the coast of Florida 
into the west Atlantic. The front will be preceded by increasing 
south to southwest winds and accompanied by scattered showers 
and thunderstorms.