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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310529
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N 
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to 
numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NE 
quadrant, and within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. 
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either 
side of the line that extends from 12N56W to 12N60W to 18N along 
the tropical wave. This weather system, slowly, is becoming 
better organized. The atmospheric conditions appear to be 
conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical 
depression to form during this weekend. The weather system is 
forecast to move westward across the central sections and the 
western sections of the Caribbean Sea.  Expect heavy rainfall 
across parts of the ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend. 
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 
48 hours, is high. Please refer to the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones, for more details. 

A Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A heavy rainfall event is 
possible across parts of Central America, from late this weekend 
into early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa 
Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. flash flooding and mudslides may 
be possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. It is possible for the 
rainfall threat to be enhanced by the 68W/69W tropical 
wave/possible tropical cyclone development. Please, refer to 
bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your national 
meteorological service, 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 11N 
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate is within from 07N to 14N, within 300 nm to the east of 
the wave, and within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is about 230 nm to the west of the 
68W/69W tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to 
strong is within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 
08N to 12N, in Colombia and Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate 
to isolated strong is elsewhere within 160 nm to the west of the 
tropical wave, from 08N to 13N. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong is in the remainder of the area from 07N to Hispaniola, 
SE Cuba, and Jamaica from the second tropical wave westward. The 
monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, 
beyond Costa Rica. 

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, from the border of Belize and 
Guatemala, southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to strong is in western Nicaragua. Widely 
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the 
coastal waters of Honduras between 87W and 88W, and along the 
border of Nicaragua and Honduras between 86W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 09N13W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 
05N26W, and from 04N to 03N between 28W and 46W. Precipitation: 
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm on 
either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from
40W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward 
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to Miami in Florida, 
to the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to northern Guatemala. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the 
area that is from the coast of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel 
and 22N, between 85W and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern 
Mexico. 

The current Miami Florida-to-Yucatan Channel cold front will 
drift southward during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds will continue in the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico through early Saturday. A strong cold front will move 
into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The strong cold 
front will extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula 
on Monday, and move to the south of the area on Tuesday. Fresh 
to strong northerly winds are expected across the region from 
Sunday night through Tuesday. Strong winds are possible in the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N southward, moving 
westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong 
is within 135 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 90 
nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate to 
locally strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that 
extends from 12N56W to 12N60W to 18N along the tropical wave. 
This weather system, slowly, is becoming better organized. The 
atmospheric conditions appear to be conducive for more 
development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form 
during this weekend. The weather system is forecast to move 
westward across the central sections and the western sections of 
the Caribbean Sea.  Expect heavy rainfall across parts of the 
ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend. The chance of 
formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is 
high. Please refer to the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones, 
for more details. 

A second tropical wave is about 230 nm to the west of the 
68W/69W tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to 
strong is within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 
08N to 12N, in Colombia and Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate 
to isolated strong is elsewhere within 160 nm to the west of the 
tropical wave, from 08N to 13N. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong is in the remainder of the area from 07N to Hispaniola, 
SE Cuba, and Jamaica from the second tropical wave westward. The 
monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, 
beyond Costa Rica. 

Active weather, associated with a developing area of low 
pressure along a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea, 
will shift westward into the western Caribbean Sea, through the 
weekend. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during 
this weekend, as the system moves westward across the central 
and western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond 
Miami in Florida, toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: 
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is 
within 180 nm to 240 nm to the SE of the cold front, from 24N 
northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N and Cuba to 
24N between 69W and 78W, along the coast of Florida from 25N to 
26N.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that 
is near 37N12W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 
32N30W, to 26N57W to 27N68W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind 
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from the cold 
front eastward.

The current 31N68W-to-Miami Florida cold front will stall, and 
dissipate, from 28N69W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. A strong 
cold front will sweep across the forecast area, from Sunday 
night through Tuesday. Expect strong north to northwest winds, 
and building seas, behind the front. 

$$
mt