000
AXNT20 KNHC 131004
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania/Senegal border near
16N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 08N between 11W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the western Gulf. Fresh 
to locally strong easterly winds are found in the central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevailing 
elsewhere west of 86W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. In the 
rest of the Gulf, light to gentle winds and slight seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure extends across the basin. An 
inverted trough may develop over the western Gulf early this week 
where it may linger through at least mid-week. Heavy rainfall and 
thunderstorms are expected across the northern Gulf over the next 
few days. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the 
basin, pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan 
Channel. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico 
continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, sustaining 
moderate easterly trade winds over most of the basin. The 
exception is the Gulf of Honduras, where strong to near gale E-SE 
winds are currently pulsing with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong
winds are also noted in the south-central Caribbean with seas to 7
ft. Seas are slight to moderate across the rest of the basin.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean along
the monsoon trough, S of 11N. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will 
support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of 
Honduras through most of the week. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected in the south- central basin through Wed, where winds will
decrease to moderate to fresh through the later part of the week.
Seas will build through the week as a result of the increasing 
winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through 
most of the week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in 
Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern 
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N61W to 28N63W then stalls from
that point to the South Florida coast near 26N80W. A pre- frontal
trough is analyzed from 28N56W to 22N67W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted north of 20N and between 52W and 66W. 
Moderate to fresh winds are noted near the front mainly north of 
28N and between 58W and 68W. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 ft. 
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere west of 50W, while moderate to fresh easterly winds 
prevail east of 50W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
1030 mb high pressure system centered to the west of the Azores. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower 
pressures in northwest Africa result in fresh to strong northerly 
winds north of 15N and east of 22W. Seas in the area described are
in the 8 to 10 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken 
as it reaches from near 31N58W the Central Bahamas today, then 
dissipating from near 27N55W to 22N65W by early Tue. High pressure
will build in its wake. Fresh to strong southerly winds and 
building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by Tue ahead of 
another possible cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W
to 27N80W by early Thu, weakening and stalling from 31N69W to 
near Fort Pierce, Florida by early Fri. Conditions around the 
front will improve by Fri. 

$$
AReinhart