000
AXNT20 KNHC 070954
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean 
through Tue night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region 
will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and
accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at 
night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at 
times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is E of the Cape Verde Islands with axis near 22W,
extending from 05N to 19N, and moving west at 5-10 kt. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection extends from 06N to 20N between 11W
and 22W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 41W,
extending from 05N to 19N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. No 
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 53W,
extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection extends from 07N to 12N between 48W and 58W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 12N38W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N41W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is
noted elsewhere. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak ridging extends from the southwestern Atlantic to the 
western Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds across the Gulf and slight seas. In the Bay of Campeche,
a surface trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds as well as
scattered showers. Otherwise, scattered showers associated with a
surface trough moving across the northern Bahamas are reaching the
SE Gulf. 
 
For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will 
dominate across most of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight 
seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a 
surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf.
Slight to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the 
basin through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high located NW of
Bermuda, and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to 
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to 
fresh trades are elsewhere over the SW and E Caribbean with 
moderate seas. Otherwise, an upper-level low centered between
Jamaica and Haiti is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central 
and portions of the SW basin through Tue night. Over the weekend, 
the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase
the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and
to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, 
building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in 
wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and 
Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the 
weekend when winds may pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly 
moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the northern 
Bahamas and adjacent waters due to a westward moving surface 
trough. Aside from the shower activity, the trough is bringing
moderate to fresh E to SE winds to the Bahamas offshores along
with moderate to locally rough seas. Surface ridging dominate the
remainder subtropical Atlantic waters, thus providing moderate or
weaker winds between 30W and 65W. East of 30W, fresh to locally 
strong NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Canary 
Islands and off Western Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, a westward moving surface trough 
over the northern Bahamas offshores will support showers and 
thunderstorms activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores 
through this morning before shifting west of the area tonight into
early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough 
will bring fresh winds and moderate to rough seas across the 
Bahamas offshores through this afternoon. Fresh E winds will 
prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward 
Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds Sun night, Mon 
night, and Tue night as the Bermuda High shifts southward. 

$$
Ramos