011 
AXNT20 KNHC 210429
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb 
high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is 
supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the 
middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts 
eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia 
to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are 
forecast with these winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern 
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are 
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early 
Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in
excess of 12 inches will be likely. 

Please consult products from your local meteorological services 
for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong ridge over the eastern United States forces fresh to
locally near gale-force easterly winds and moderate to rough seas
east of 90E, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are found west of 90E to a line 
from southern Texas to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United
States supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to 
rough seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits 
of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through Wed. The 
next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat 
followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing 
high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions
first near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale 
Warning offshore Colombia.

A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh
to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the 
shearline and north of 17N. Outside of the south-central 
Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are
found off southern Hispaniola and NE Caribbean. Easterly swell is
reaching the Atlantic water passages of the NE Caribbean, allowing
for localized rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly 
winds and moderate seas are evident. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the
United States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds
and moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through Wed.
These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into
northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall
through mid-week. A surface trough, and associated area of 
moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands late on Wed, and 
over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This 
is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N63W and
continues to eastern Cuba. A few showers are noted near this
boundary. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the
eastern United States and the aforementioned front supports fresh
to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas west of the front
and south of 29N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an
extensive subtropical ridge SW of the Azores, forcing fresh to
near gale-force easterly winds and rough to locally very rough
seas south of 27N and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft east of
the Lesser Antilles sustains a large area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, especially from 14N to 20N and between 45W
and 57W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas 
east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from 31N64W to
eastern Cuba. The front will lift N and gradually dissipate 
through Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure 
over the SE of the United States and the front will continue to 
support fresh to strong NE winds over the western Atlantic W of 
the front, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of 
Florida through Wed. 

$$
Delgado