000
AXNT20 KNHC 041037
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just E of the Cape Verde Islands, extending
from 05N to 17N with axis near 23W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated
showers are in the immediate vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 33W, moving
W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N
to 12N between 28W and 41W. 

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, with axis south of 19N and
near 67W, which is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted between 63W and 73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 06N52W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
numerous moderate to strong convection is coming off W Africa and
extends from 04N to 16N between 10W and 21W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 13N between 44W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW 
across the SE U.S. and across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 
mb high near 26N89W. This supports light to gentle winds and 
slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a 
surface trough.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to 
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds 
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the 
result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight 
to moderate seas are expected. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the 
basin and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong 
easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central to SW 
Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore 
NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 5-6 ft seas are
across the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, the E Pacific 
extension of the monsoon continues to support numerous moderate to
strong convection over the Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Wed night. Expect winds to 
reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh trades 
will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker 
winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Otherwise, a 
tropical wave moving across the Mona Passage this morning will 
continue to bring scattered showers and tstms to the eastern 
Caribbean through this evening and across the central basin 
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of
the area along 31N-33N between 45W and 71W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are between the front and 27N. Similar
shower activity is farther east within 60 nm either side of a
surface trough that extends from 29N45W to 26N52W. Otherwise, 
the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the 
subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting moderate to locally 
fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across much of the waters S
of 25N. North of 25N and W of 44W, winds are moderate or weaker
from the SSW and seas slight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades
prevail between the Lesser Antilles and 43W where seas are 7-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward into central Florida through midweek. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and 
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are 
likely at night N of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward 
Passage.

$$
Ramos