833 
AXNT20 KNHC 271657
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1657 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 26W, 
extending from 09N to 18N, and moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated 
clusters of moderate convection are noted near the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, extending from 09N to 
21N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
depicted at this time in association with this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 71.5W
southward from 18N into Venezuela, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is depicted at this time in association 
with this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 80W, from 
18N southward to central Panama, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N between 76W and 
83W. Scattered convection is also noted from 16N to 18N along the
wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5W and 
continues to 10N49.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is along the coast of Africa from 06N to 13N E of 22W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 13N between
31W and 41W and between 49W and 53W.  

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. 
extends southwestward to northern Florida, and scattered showers 
and thunderstorms from 27N to 29N and east of 86W. Scattered 
moderate convection is found across the Straits of Florida. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the western Bay of 
Campeche. A high pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 26.5N90W and
is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except gentle to 
moderate NW winds along the northeastern Gulf coastal and 
immediate offshore waters. Gentle to moderate SE winds are also 
ongoing in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the 
basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure remaining over the central
Gulf will lead toward generally quiescent conditions for the next
several days. The exception is NE fresh winds just northwest of 
the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the end of the week. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next 
couple of days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching weak cold 
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge extends westward along 16N-18N, and is 
supporting fresh trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the 
central Caribbean S of 16N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. An mid level trough is supporting
scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 81W and 84W. 

For the forecast, an increasing pressure gradient between the 
Colombian Low and high pressure north of the Caribbean will boost 
trades to strong over the S central Caribbean from Tue night 
through the end of the week. Similarly, trades over the Gulf of 
Honduras will increase to fresh starting Tuesday night. A tropical
wave moving through the E Caribbean will enhance showers and 
thunderstorms today and tomorrow over the SE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb center of high pressure 
near 32N39W extends southwestward to near 24N71W. To the N of 23N
and west of 67W, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated 
strong convection is occurring ahead of a stalling cold front 
along 31.5N and offshore of the Carolinas. Moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds prevail ahead of the front, north of 29N and
between 61W and 69W. Another area of scattered moderate convection
is found from 21N to 25N between 56.5W and 63W in association to
an upper level low. Elsewhere N of 22N and W of 40W, moderate or 
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Across the tropical 
Atlantic S of 22N moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail, 
with seas of 5-8 ft. A 1025 mb high pressure near the Azores is 
promoting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from the Canary 
Islands to 40W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge associated with the 
Bermuda High will remain farther south than usual - near 25N - 
through Fri. This in combination with a stationary front offshore 
of the Carolinas is forcing fresh to strong SW winds and scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of 28N west of 65W for the next 
several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just 
north of Hispaniola from Wed through Fri.

$$
KRV