189 
AXNT20 KNHC 130615
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 15N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 28W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is over Barbados at 60W from 
17N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N 
and between 56W and 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from just west of 
Jamaica southward across eastern Panama, and moving westward at 
10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the
Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of  
Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward across 07N25W 
to 04N39W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
flaring up near the monsoon trough from 06N to 10N and between 20W
and 25W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A squall line is creating scattered moderate convection at the
northwestern Gulf. A surface trough along the west coast of
Florida is triggering widely scattered showers at the southwestern
Gulf, including the Florida Strait. Otherwise, a surface ridge
reaching southwestward from central Florida to near Veracruz,
Mexico is dominating the western Gulf with gentle to moderate SE 
to S winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft. Moderate with locally fresh SE 
to S winds and 3 to 6 ft are present for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a complex of scattered thunderstorms moving 
into the northwestern Gulf may produce locally higher winds and 
seas tonight. Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the 
Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough 
develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly 
reach strong at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast 
elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to 
moderate winds across the remainder of the basin.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1026 mb Bermuda High continues a trade-wind regime over the
entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the lee of Cuba
and near Hispaniola. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Wave sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh
to strong easterly winds with 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the central
basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft are
present at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and sea at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda high 
and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern 
South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to
rough seas over most of the central and west-central basin 
through Tue. Winds will pulse and reach fresh to strong near the 
Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with 
greater coverage of these winds expected to begin on Mon, with 
passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail 
elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate 
winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades 
will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next 
week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside through
Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to dominate the Atlantic
north of 22N and west of 35W with gentle to moderate ENE to SSE 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to
22N west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to
8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
west of 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave
sections for convection in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main 
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next 
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to 
strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during 
each late afternoon and at night through early next week. 

$$

Chan