000
AXNT20 KNHC 020334
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 21N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave 
at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and dives 
southwestward to 10N43W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 10N51W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across much of the east-central Gulf. A 1015 mb 
surface high pressure is centered near 24N86W. This pattern is 
supporting moderate W winds and 2-4 ft seas off the northern Gulf 
coast, and light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate 
winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE to
E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly 
through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue over much of the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W into the 
upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach 
the Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will continue 
over the far northern Gulf through Sunday evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Costa Rica and
Panama. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the 
deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 
seas of 6-8 ft across much of the central and eastern Caribbean 
Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the persistent pressure gradient across the
Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central
basin through the rest of the weekend and into most of next
week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over the
central Caribbean near 72W, is accompanied by scattered showers 
and thunderstorms mainly over Hispaniola and the adjacent nearshore
waters. The wave will continue quickly moving westward across 
the remainder of the basin through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs
result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much
of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the 
subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high
pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of 
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will change little 
through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast 
waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of 
the front, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong 
trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the 
period

$$
ERA