000
AXNT20 KNHC 310010
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front curves 
southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to 
south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and 5 to 8 ft 
seas are seen behind the front. As the front pushes farther south 
and east later tonight, it will cause these winds to reach strong 
to gale- force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Saturday 
morning, along with seas peaking at 10 to 13 ft. The low will 
track eastward across the southeastern U.S. and merge with a 
complex low pressure off the South Carolina coast Sat and Sat 
night. This is expected to cause widespread strong to gale-force 
winds along with very cold temperatures across the eastern Gulf, 
including waters near the Florida Keys. Seas in this area will 
build to between 14 and 16 ft under the strongest winds. Looking 
ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the 
Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts southeastward across 
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. 

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop 
offshore the Carolina coast tonight into Sat morning. This system
will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off 
the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex 
low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic 
Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large
area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north 
of about 24N and just east of Florida Sat through Sun evening, 
before lifting north of the area Sun night. A Gale Watch is 
already in effect across the coastal waters of most of the Florida
Peninsula, including the Florida Keys. Sustained winds of 30 to 40
knots with higher gusts are possible across the Atlantic and Gulf
waters of South Florida through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights 
could peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters 
during the day on Sunday as well. The front is expected to reach 
from southeast of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 
31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and
stall from near 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the
wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the 
waters north and east of the Bahamas from late Sat through early 
next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and 
beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these 
conditions. 

Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record
breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week 
in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures 
are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and
Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami 
Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
information on both events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia 
near Monrovia, then extends southwestward to 03N20W, where it 
transitions to an ITCZ and continues across 01N30W to near the
Amazon Delta area. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and
north of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 31W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. 

A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over 
southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered 
showers are occurring up to 80 nm northwest and 120 nm southeast 
of the front. A surface trough ahead of the front is causing 
similar convection at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N 
winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen behind the front. Gentle to 
moderate SW to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the 
northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft 
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for
more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough runs south-southwestward from a 1013 mb low near
the Cayman Islands to off the Nicaragua coast. These features are
generating scattered showers from central Cuba southward across
the Cayman Islands to the far southwestern basin. The leading edge
of a trade-wind surge is also inducing similar weather at the
eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin, and offshore waters
of Nicaragua. Mainly moderate N to ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
dominate the eastern and northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate
N to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to 
move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and then 
southeastward merging with the aforementioned surface trough. The
cold front will reach from western Hispaniola to the northwest 
coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern 
Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near 
gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the very beginning for
a Gale Warning.

A stationary front meanders southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N48W to just north of the Dominican Republic.
Patchy rain are found near and up to 200 nm northwest of this
boundary. A surface trough runs southward from a 1016 low off the
Georgia/South Carolina coast at 31N73W to southeastern Florida.
Scattered showers are occurring near the low across northern
Florida. .Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to NE to SW winds and 5 
to 9 ft seas in moderate to large NW swell are found behind the 
stationary front to the Florida coast. Gentle winds with 7 to 11 
ft seas in large NW swell exist southeast of the front to 20N and 
50W. Farther east, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE 
to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell are present. For the 
tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser 
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
evident. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for 
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features 
section for more information.

$$

Chan