639 
AXNT20 KNHC 281757
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Dec 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the 
NW Gulf waters early Mon. The front will move quickly 
southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale- 
force winds will follow the front, along with rough seas. Gale- 
force N winds and rough to very rough seas will develop off 
Tampico Mon afternoon and night. These winds and seas will reach 
the waters off Veracruz Mon night and persist until Tue night. 
Seas may peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. 
Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A couple of cold 
fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold
front extends from 31N54W to 29N65W to 31N79W. The second cold 
front enters the waters near 31N56W to 28N69W to 30N72W. These
fronts will lead to gale-force winds in the central
Atlantic starting tonight and lasting through Monday afternoon. Fresh
to strong NW winds currently follow these fronts, with fresh to 
strong SW winds along and ahead of the fronts out to about 40W and
N of 23N. Gusts to gale force are expected immediately ahead of 
the fronts as well as behind them, generally N of 24N between 30W 
and 60W through the duration of the Gale Warning. Large N swell 
from both fronts is leading to very rough seas greater than 12 ft 
over the forecast waters N of 23N between 37W and 68W. The large 
area of very rough seas will shift eastward across the waters N of
22N. Seas will peak at around 20 ft along and N of 30N between 
45W and 55W Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues 
to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N38W to 06N57W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
01N to 08N and E of 20W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ from
30W westward.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming 
Gale Warning.

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, while the remainder of the
Gulf is dominated by a 1021 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. 
Light to gentle winds are over the E Gulf, with moderate to fresh
winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the
NE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds will 
occur over the central and western Gulf today ahead of a cold 
front moving through the southern U.S. The front is slated to move
into the northern Gulf late tonight, and gale force winds and 
significant rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of 
the front off the coast of Texas and Louisiana by early Mon 
morning, and offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by Mon afternoon and
evening. Prolonged gale force winds and very rough seas will 
persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. 
Widespread strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are 
expected elsewhere behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish 
from north to south through midweek. Looking ahead, high pressure 
will build over the basin following the front, supporting moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas through late this week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail in the central
to SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas
offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas
prevail across much of the remaining basin. Pockets of enhanced
moisture in the trade wind flow are leading to scattered showers
in the central to NW Caribbean where a surface trough is also
present, as well as in the SE Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are 
expected over the central Caribbean through the middle of the 
upcoming week as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the
Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach 
near-gale force offshore of northern Colombia tonight and again 
Mon night. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate
seas are expected over the rest of the basin through midweek. 
Elsewhere, a long period N to NW swell will support rough seas 
over the Atlantic waters early this week. Looking ahead, a cold 
front will move into the northwestern basin late Tue into Wed, and
weaken as it moves southeastward by late this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section at the beginning for details on
gale force winds and the ongoing significant swell in the central 
Atlantic.

A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central 
waters. The first cold front extends from 31N54W to 29N65W to 
31N79W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N56W to 
28N69W to 30N72W. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of
these fronts out to about 40W and N of 27N, enhanced also by a
dissipating stationary front in this region. Aside from the 
gales and significant swell mentioned above, rough seas in excess
of 8 ft cover the waters north of a line running from 31N32W to 
19N57W to 31N75W. 

Farther east, a frontal remnant trough interacting with an upper 
level trough along 30W is leading to scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms generally E of 35W and N of 20N. Moderate
to fresh S to SE winds and 7-10 ft seas are seen near this
feature, generally N of 24N between 25W and 33W. Much of the
remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas prevail, with locally rough seas and locally fresh to strong
trades analyzed S of 10N between 35W and 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds and 
very rough seas will continue over the central tropical Atlantic, 
north of 22N and east of 70W, through Mon morning as a strong 
storm system and a series of cold fronts move over the region. 
Locally near-gale force winds will be possible north of 29N and 
east of 60W through late tonight. Widespread rough seas associated
with this storm system will prevail east of 75W through tonight 
before briefly subsiding from west to east early this week. 
Farther west, fresh to locally strong W to SW winds will develop 
offshore of Florida on Mon ahead of a cold front moving through 
the southern U.S. The front is slated to move offshore by late 
Mon, supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas in 
the wake of the front. These winds and seas will expand eastward 
toward the central Atlantic through midweek as the front moves 
eastward. 

$$
Adams