655 
AXNT20 KNHC 290949
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of
15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is
described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W south of
15N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 to 
20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical 
wave over the Caribbean.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N17W, then
curves south then southwestward to near 10N23W. The ITCZ extends 
from 10N23W to 03N40W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 05N to 07N between 18W and 21W, and from 05N to 07N between 
37W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W.
An associated 1011 mb surface low is centered Ciudad del Carmen in
the Bay of Campeche. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are 
active near the surface low and over the south- central Gulf 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, 
1016 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf near 
27N85W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes 
across the Gulf, except over the far southwest Gulf where gusty 
outflows are possible near the thunderstorms. Seas are mostly 2-4 
ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the pattern will sustain gentle to moderate E to
SE winds through Tue. The exception will be evening pulses of
fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf
through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level
trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid
and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers
and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through
Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas
are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep
up to date with the latest forecasts.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A generally drier, subsident pattern is in place across the 
central and eastern Caribbean, suppressing shower and thunderstorm
activity. Over the northwest Caribbean, divergent southerly flow 
in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere along with abundant 
deep layer moisture is supporting late evening, sea-breeze 
generated showers and thunderstorms across Belize, with a larger
cluster of thunderstorms off Costa Rica and southeast Nicaragua, responding
to drainage off the land. Broad ridging north of the basin across
the western Atlantic, along with lower pressure over northern 
South America is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds across 
mainly the central Caribbean, and combined seas of 7-10 ft. 
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted 
elsewhere. satellite imagery shows a plume of Saharan dust across 
the tropical Atlantic that extends westward to the eastern 
Caribbean. The dust is expected to increase late in the weekend 
and into early next week.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong 
trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through this
morning before gradually diminishing in areal coverage this
afternoon and evening. Moderate E to SE winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras are going to pulse to fresh during the night through Tue
night. The aforementioned high is going to weaken and open up 
into a ridge near 24N later today. This will yield moderate to 
locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin 
through Tue, except the south-central Caribbean, where fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas will persist. Looking ahead, a 
tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands late on 
Sat, leading to increased shower activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge stretches west- southwestward from a 1026 mb high between
the eastern Azores and Madeira to the northern Bahamas and off
eastern Florida. This pattern is promoting gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate 
swell north of 22N between 35W and the central Bahamas/Florida 
coast. Across the tropical Atlantic south of 22N between 35W and 
the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh 
northeast to east winds and seas in the range of 6 to 8 ft are 
present there as depicted in recent scatterometer and altimeter 
satellite passes. A Saharan dust plume is observed over this area
roughly from 08N and 20N, with a dense plume of dust over the 
waters east of 40W to the coast of Africa. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge over the western Atlantic will support
gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 26N through Tue.
For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating
eastward across the north Atlantic are going to bring fresh to strong
winds along with rough seas through this evening, then again from
Sat night through Sun night. Winds related to the second cold 
front might peak at near-gale force from Sat night through Sun.

$$
Christensen