000
AXNT20 KNHC 210440
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0437 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 21N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderated isolated 
strong convection is present from 07N to 14N and between 28W and 
40W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 09N to 14N and between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 19N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted in
association with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85.5W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Associated convection is limited 
over Central America, while area Caribbean waters are rain free.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues 
southwestward to 12N25W and to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from 
11N50W to 10N60W. Outside of convection associated with tropical 
wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 07N 
and east of 26W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A deep layered upper level low over N Florida extends into the far
NW Caribbean and is supporting scattered moderate convection 
across the eastern Gulf. At the surface, 1017 mb high pressure 
centered near 25N89W dominates the basin with light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds, except for fresh to strong NE winds west of 
the Yucatan Peninsula due the pressure gradient associated with a 
trough. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early next week.
A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the 
basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong 
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early 
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection 
across the basin.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of 
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting 
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 69W 
and 75W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle 
over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the 
south-central portion, and slight in the NW. Saharan Air across 
most of the basin is aiding in limiting convection.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient associated to high 
pressure north of the Caribbean will lead to fresh to strong trade
winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through 
much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas will prevail over the north- central and eastern Caribbean 
through the weekend and into early next week. A tropical wave will
move across the tropical Atlantic and into the far eastern 
Caribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind flow across 
those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics. 

A trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and continues 
southwestward to 27N66W. A cluster of moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted N of 26N between 53W and 58W, while isolated 
showers are noted along the trough axis. Isolated moderate
convection is also depicted north of the Bahamas. The rest of the
basin remains under the influence of subtropical ridging, 
supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas, except for a belt of
moderate to fresh trades between 12N and 22N, where seas are 5 to
7 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE wind prevail across the 
northeastern waters from the Canary Islands southward to 18N and E
of 22W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will 
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are 
expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola 
through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong 
speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the 
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of tropical wave 
is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early 
next week enhancing the trades some.

$$
KRV