490 
AXNT20 KNHC 260414
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jul 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0413 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 23.5W,
from 16.5N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 10.5N between 21W and
31W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
depicted from 14.5N to 16.5N between the waves axis and 47W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 12N to 16N between 56W and 59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned, and is analyzed 
near 72W, from 19N southward. No significant convection is noted 
at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to
11N42W. The ITCZ continues from 07N47W to 09N55W. A cluster of
moderate convection is depicted from 09N to 13N east of 19W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 10N between 46.5W 
and 55W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
and adjacent land areas are associated with a trough of low 
pressure that is moving inland over southwestern Louisiana and 
southeastern Texas. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are occurring
near and to the east of the trough in the north-central basin. 
Scattered showers are depicted across the northern and western 
basin in association with the trough. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted over the eastern Gulf in association to a 
trough over western FL. Another area of scattered moderate 
convection is depicted over the eastern Bay of Campeche in 
association to a trough over the area. Moderate to locally fresh 
NE winds are occurring over the Strait of Florida and north of the
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail with
seas 1 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located just off the 
coast of southwestern Louisiana continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving westward, and it 
will move inland over southwestern Louisiana or Texas tonight. A 
weak pressure pattern will follow, supporting gentle breezes and 
slight seas into the middle of next week. The exception will be 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland 
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient forced by a 1009 mb low over 
northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the Atlantic is 
leading to fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean 
and through the Windward Passage. Seas of 8-10 ft are found across
these waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also found across
the west-central through northwestern basin with seas of 3-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted downwind of
the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean. Numerous moderate
to locally strong convection is occurring in the northwestern 
part of the basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to strong northeast 
winds in the Windward Passage are expected through Sat. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N51W to
26N59W then its start to dissipate to 31N69W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring along the central and eastern portions of 
the front from 26N to 31N between 49W and 59W. Moderate SW winds 
and 4-7 ft seas are occurring north of the front, generally east 
of 55W. Farther west, mainly gentle winds prevail north of 22N and
west of 35W. South of 22N and west 35W, moderate to fresh winds
prevail. Seas in these water are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere in the 
tropical and subtropical Atlantic, moderate trade winds and 
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh to 
strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
along with mostly moderate seas are expected. 

$$ KRV