000
AXNT20 KNHC 180349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 03N19W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high 
center that is near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico,
Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the western 
half of the basin. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Latest 
buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate light 
to gentle winds in the eastern portion of the Gulf, with the 
exception of moderate northeast to east winds in the far 
southeastern part of the basin near western Cuba and in the 
Straits of Florida. Seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft are over the 
remainder of the Gulf, except for lower seas of less than 3 ft in 
the NE and eastern Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will remain in place 
and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure 
gradient across the basin. This pressure gradient will support 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through 
Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a 
daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to
support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. 
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold
front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early
part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits 
to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery reveals a lingering mid to upper-level 
trough that extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to 
across the eastern portion of Hispaniola. A surface trough is 
analyzed from eastern Cuba southward to 16N79W. Abundant moisture 
east of these features in combination with dynamics aloft related 
to the mid to upper-level trough is resulting in an unsettled 
weather pattern for the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and  
thunderstorms prevail E of 67W. The unsettled weather conditions 
will continue for the eastern Caribbean through the weekend.
 
Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mostly gentle trades are over the rest 
of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough will drift slowly westward 
and weaken through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds through the 
remainder of the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early
next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- 
season cold front moving into Cuba. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough extends southward from near 28N73W to 
eastern Cuba near 21N77W. The pressure gradient related to high 
pressure of 1023 mb north of the area at 32N48W is generally 
providing for light to gentle winds north of 25N between 35W and 
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within 
this area of winds as noted in SoFar buoy and altimeter satellite 
data. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft in mixed swell are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the 
area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is 
forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. 
Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake
of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by
late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before 
stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week. 

$$
ERA