000
AXNT20 KNHC 040421
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
ahead of the wave axis from 07N to 19N between 44W and 54W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 
78W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave 
appears to enhance convection over the south-central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and continues 
southwestward to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 07N45W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave,
Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough mainly E
of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Gulf region. This system is also enhancing convection over the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is analyzed over the 
western Gulf and runs from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of 
Campeche. The pressure gradient between this trough and a ridge 
over the western Atlantic and Florida is allowing for mostly 
fresh southeast winds to exist E of the trough axis. Light to 
gentle winds are occurring west of the trough axis. Seas are 
generally moderate, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas are 
in the 1 to 3 ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will follow a weak 
frontal boundary that will drift into the far NW Gulf off the 
Texas coast tonight, then along the Mexican coast to Veracruz 
through Tue. A ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into 
north Florida through late Sun, supporting moderate to fresh SE to
S winds and 4-6 ft across much of the central and eastern Gulf. 
Looking ahead, this ridge will shift southeastward into midweek 
ahead of the slowly moving front, which will stall over the 
northern Gulf by mid week. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas 
will persist north of the front, with fresh to strong NW to N 
winds possible off Veracruz through the early part of the week. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will persist 
elsewhere through the latter part of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting  
the Greater Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and parts of the NW 
Caribbean under a diffluent pattern aloft. Weak ridging over the 
western Atlantic supports moderate E to SE winds across all but 
the far southwest Caribbean with moderate seas.

For the forecast, Weak ridging over the western Atlantic will 
support moderate E to SE winds across all but the far southwest 
Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh winds 
pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras at night. These 
winds and associated seas will diminish by midweek, as the high 
pressure shifts eastward, although fresh winds may continue to 
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. Otherwise, gust to 
gale force winds associated with clusters of deep convection 
offshore Colombia are forecast to diminish by late Sun morning as 
the convection dissipates.

Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are 
possible across Hispaniola the remainder of the weekend, mainly
over Haiti and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will
deepen toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near 
the island by Sun. This, combined with available moisture and 
local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain 
upslope lifting, will likely increase the chances of rain in the 
area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low located N of Hispaniola is generating scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This convective activity 
is more concentrated south of 27N between 61W and 71W. A surface 
trough is analyzed in this area, and extends from 27N64W to 
20N68W. To the E, another trough is analyzed from 31N58W to
26N61W with no significant convection. Surface ridging prevails 
elsewhere, anchored by a few high pressure centers N of the area. 
Light to gentle winds are NE of the Bahamas while moderate 
easterly winds are evident between the Bahamas and Cuba, and in 
the Straits of Florida. Fresh NE winds offshore Western Sahara 
and southern Morocco, including between the Canary Islands. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft within these wind speeds. Elsewhere moderate or 
weaker winds prevail with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak ridge will shift eastward 
through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall off the NE 
Florida coast Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas may 
follow the front, but stay over the coastal waters off far NE 
Florida through mid week. Gentle to moderate and slight seas will 
persist elsewhere.

$$
ERA