000
AXNT20 KNHC 201632
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southward to 08N18W and then 
westward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N27W to 10N62W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 
08N to 12N and east of 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and tstms persist this morning over
the southwest Gulf and off the Yucatan Peninsula, along a trough
analyzed along 94W in the W Gulf and another trough extending
across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Strong NW winds continue 
offshore Veracruz, where seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. 
Elsewhere, 1029 mb high pressure centered over the Middle
Mississippi Valley is supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds 
and moderate seas across the Gulf, except for the far SE Gulf and
Florida Straits where fresh to strong NE winds persist.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms persist 
this morning over the southwest Gulf and off the Yucatan 
Peninsula. High pressure over the eastern U.S. will support fresh 
to NE winds are across the basin through the latter part of the 
week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore 
Veracruz through Wed. Looking ahead, strengthening high pressure 
over the eastern U.S. will support strong to near-gale NE winds 
and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extending across the Caribbean and the East
Pacific monsoon trough analyzed across the far SW Caribbean 
support scattered moderate to strong convection S of 13N and W of 
75W. Outside of convection, a weaker pressure gradient supports
gentle to moderate or weaker winds and subsequent slight seas across
much of the Caribbean, except for the south-central basin offshore
Colombia and Venezeula where moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft
seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the far northwest 
Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through early this afternoon. These 
winds will diminish Wed as the high pressure weakens, leaving 
gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas across the 
basin. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds across the 
south-central Caribbean by Thu, and fresh winds across the far 
northwestern Caribbean starting late Sat as high pressure builds 
again north of the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from SW of Bermuda near 31N67W to the
southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring along much of the cold front. Moderate
to fresh N to NE winds are W of the front to the SE US coast, with
locally strong NE winds occurring along the south Florida coast
and the Florida Straits. Rough seas prevail N of the Bahamas and W
of 70W, with very rough seas of 13-15 ft occurring N of 28N
between 71W and 80W.

A broad upper-level low near 25N54W is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 31N and between 43W and 
60W. A surface trough reaches from 28N50W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 26N56W to 23N58W. This pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh and locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft north 
of 26N and between 35W and 55W. Farther east, scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are active along a weak surface trough extends 
from the Canary Islands to 1015 mb low pressure near 27N21W to 
24N25W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere 
across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
large NE swell persist west of a cold front that extends from 
31N67W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds
will diminish tonight into Wed as the front dissipates, and 
lingering swell will subside through Thu. Looking ahead, a 
tightening pressure gradient developing late Fri is expected to 
induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds over the waters 
north of about 25N well into the weekend. Seas with these winds 
are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners 
should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance 
plans in place. 

$$
Adams