000
AXNT20 KNHC 210917
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W, south of 16N and 
moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast of Guinea-Bissau 
near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to near 05N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is present south of 08N. The strongest 
convection is evident off Liberia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends 
into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas. A few showers are occurring in the 
nearshore waters of the NW Gulf. Generally dry conditions dominate
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will change little 
during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and 
relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will 
generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind 
flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of 
fresh to strong winds pulsing off Yucatan from the late afternoons
and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level 
disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected 
to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few
days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be 
prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this 
activity. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridge located east of Bermuda forces fresh to near gale-
force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas 
are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. 
A few showers are noted south of Cuba, while generally dry
conditions prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, he pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and relatively lower pressures in northern South America 
will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central portion
of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades will continue 
to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong 
trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. 
Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast 
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low situated north of the NW Bahamas continues to
enhance the shower activity between 71W and 76W. The rest of the 
SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad 
subtropical ridge east of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are noted south of 27N and west of 55W. 

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N28W and
continues southwestward to 26N41W, followed by a stationary front
to 27N62W. A few light showers are evident ahead of these fronts.
The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 
broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure over 
France. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned 
ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to
fresh northerly winds from 14N to 22N and east of 22W. Moderate 
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present 
south of 23N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and
accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will 
continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms from off the central Bahamas southward to the 
Windward Passage through at least Thu evening. Some of this 
activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing 
visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds 
north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the 
next few days. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the
area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the 
period.

$$
Delgado