000
AXNT20 KNHC 182202
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is stalling this
evening from the northwest coast of Cuba to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm
south and 60 nm north of the boundary. Gale-force winds and very
rough seas are present behind the front int the western Bay of
Campeche, with fresh to strong N winds and occasional rough seas
elsewhere N of the front. The front will remain generally
stationary and weaken into Tue. Gales and very rough seas will 
prevail in the SW basin through tonight, with rough seas then
continuing through Tue. 

Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front is moving
faster in the Atlantic, and extends this evening from 31N70W
through the NW Bahamas and to the northern coast of Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 120 nm ahead of this
front, and 60 nm behind the boundary. N of the cold front, near
gale-force northeast to north winds and very rough seas of up to
20 ft area present, with gales occurring N of 29N between 71W and
74W. The front will gradually slow down overnight, with gales
continuing into early Mon, and very rough seas expanding 
southeastward into Tue. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 06N25W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N29W to 12N45W, where it is broken by a surface 
trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 11N49W to 12N57W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 17N between 35W and 
60W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. 

Outside fo the gales, fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail
across most of the basin. 

For the forecast, a cold front will slow down over the far
southern Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Mon, then drift 
to the southeast of the basin through Tue as it weakens. Gale- 
force winds will persist over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz 
through early Mon morning. High pressure behind the front, will 
continue to support fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern 
half of the Gulf through Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection is mainly confined to the SW basin in association with
the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate
to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due 
to the passage of a cold front across the Bahamas and the southern
Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the 
south- central Caribbean through Thu and moderate or weaker winds 
elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the 
Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will remain through 
Wed before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to
rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the NW 
Caribbean through early Wed morning. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on gales
ongoing southwest of Bermuda behind a cold front moving through
western Atlantic waters. 

To the east of this cold front, a surface trough extending along
51W N of 22N is inducing scattered moderate convection N of 22N
between 48W and 55W. Another stronger trough from 31N45W
southeastward to 22N40W is producing an area of numerous strong
convection N of 24N between 41W and 47W. Finally, deeper in the
tropics, a third surface trough that is drapped from 08N51W to
15N43W is leading to a broad area of scattered moderate convection
from 08N to 15N between 40W and 50W. Locally fresh or higher
winds, with rough seas, are present in and near convection close 
to each of these troughs, but for waters away from these features,
winds are generally moderate or less, with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
stall before dissipating into midweek. Marine conditions 
associated with the front will affect mainly the waters W of 65W 
through Tue, although seas will linger through much of the week. 

$$
Konarik