000
AXNT20 KNHC 090457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Isaias is centered near 25.4N 88.4W at 09/0300 UTC or
260 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Seas up to
32 ft are expected in the area of strongest winds. On the 
forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern 
Gulf Coast on Friday and make landfall within the warning area 
late Friday or early Saturday. Swells from Isaias are affecting 
the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and 
will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These 
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands and
extends along 26W, south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N 
to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 30W.

A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean, with
axis is along 78W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is 
interacting with a broad upper-level low over the W Caribbean. 
At this time, scattered showers are noted across the northern 
half of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues 
westward to 1014 mb low near 12N33W to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends 
from 12N40W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and E of 38W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more information
on Hurricane Isaias. 

An old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across 
central Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters to near 
25N94W. Convection remains active along the frontal boundary. 
High pressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the 
northern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the 
front is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds to the north of 
the front. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds per altimeter
data. Elsewhere, fresh W to NW winds wrap cyclonically across 
the SW Gulf and into the western Yucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 
ft. 

For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to 27.1N 87.6W Fri 
morning, 29.9N 87.1W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a 
tropical storm near 32.2N 87.3W Sat morning, move inland and 
weaken to a tropical depression near 34.1N 87.5W Sat evening, 
inland to 36.1N 86.1W Sun morning, and inland to 38.0N 83.0W Sun 
evening. Isaias will dissipate late Mon. Swells generated by the 
cyclone will spread northward across the basin central Gulf 
through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will 
develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in 
moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through 
midweek. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop 
over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate 
or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting moderate 
to fresh trades over the central and eastern portions of the 
basin while gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over 
the western portion, except for fresh southeast to south winds 
north of 19N and west of 85W. As previously mentioned, a tropical
wave with axis along 76W is generated scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 
moderate seas in the eastern and central Caribbean will continue 
over the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds at night
Fri through Sun. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of 
America is producing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel 
and these winds will lift northward Fri. Meanwhile, a tropical 
wave near 78W is producing a few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the area. The wave will move across the western 
Caribbean tonight through the weekend while weakening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, 
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along 
the frontal boundary. Moderate easterly winds are N of the front 
and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail N of 28N between 
59W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A 1018 mb high is centered 
near 27N58W, and extends a broad ridge westward to the Bahamas. 
Across the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper trough has 
induced a surface trough below it, and extends from 27N48W to 
20N53W. This deep layered feature is generating scattered showers
and thunderstorms N of 20N and E of the trough axis to about 37W.
A broad surface ridge, associated with the Azores High, dominates
the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both
the aforementioned surface trough and a dissipating cold front 
over NW Africa, is supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate 
seas N of 20N and E of 44W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere
along with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to weaken and
the eastern portion will transition to a cold front tonight while
its western portion will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. 
Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida late 
tonight as Hurricane Isaias will be tracking northward across the 
Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds 
early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. 
Otherwise, as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic, a 
tightening pressure gradient will support NE-E winds of fresh to 
locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the 
eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a 
new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast
early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue 
night while it weakens. 

$$
ERA