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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181806
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 32.2N 68.1W at 18/1500 UTC or
195 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane. 
Numerous strong convection is within 180 nm in the NE semicircle 
and 40 nm in the SW and SE semicircle. Scattered moderate 
convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE quadrant. 
Humberto is now moving toward the east-northeast near 13kt. This 
general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is 
expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to 
north- northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track,
the core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest 
and north of Bermuda later tonight. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to
Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.
A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday. See 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

For more information about T.D. Imelda please visit the Weather 
Prediction Center website for advisories on this system. 

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 14.6N 49.2W at 18/1500 UTC 
or 855 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is within
160 nm in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within
30 nm in the E semicircle, and elsewhere within 140 nm in the S 
semicircle. A west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward 
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, 
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Friday and 
pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Jerry is forecast to 
become a hurricane by late Thursday, with little change in 
strength anticipated on Friday and Saturday. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 38W S of 19N
is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 72W S of 19N
is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
seen in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 81 W S of 
18N is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 
10N between 78W-83W near the coast of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 09N29W to 14N41W. The ITCZ begins west of T.S. Jerry near 
10N57W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the 
convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 100 nm on either 
side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous strong convection being caused by T.D. Imelda is 
occurring across the NW Gulf, from 27N-30N between 92W-96W. A
squaw line is present from 29N93W to 28N95W. A surface trough
extends from 22N90W to 19N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are present 150 nm west of the trough in the Bay of Campeche. 
Otherwise, strong upper level ridging is stretching across the 
Gulf into the U.S. A 1015 mb surface high pressure is analyzed in 
the central Gulf near 26N87W. The latest scatterometer data 
depicts calm to light anticyclonic winds in the eastern Gulf with 
gentle to moderate southerly winds in the NW Gulf. 

The remnant low pressure of Tropical Storm Imelda is inland over 
coastal Texas near 31N95W. Showers and thunderstorms will persist 
today off the north Texas coast. The low pressure will continue to
weaken as it moves farther inland through Fri. High pressure will
prevail over the Gulf waters through the remainder of the week 
into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail much of 
the period, with winds freshening over the eastern Gulf later in 
the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

A surface trough extends from the western Atlantic across the 
Bahamas into Cuba enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers a storms are present
north of 18N-10N, from the Cayman Island to Cuba and west of 
Jamaica near 78W. There are also scattered thunderstorms are in 
the Gulf of Honduras, and coast of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia
due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. A cluster of moderate
to strong thunderstorms are over the central Caribbean Sea from
13N-17N between 65W-69W. Latest scatterometer data indicates
moderate to fresh easterly winds in the convection and light to
gentle trades prevailing across most of the basin. 

Tropical Storm Jerry near 14.6N 49.2W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT moving
WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Jerry 
will move to 15.3N 51.0W this evening, 16.3N 53.7W Thu morning, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 56.5W Thu evening, 18.4N 
59.5W Fri morning, and 20.5N 65.3W Sat morning. Jerry will change 
little in intensity as it moves to 23.3N 69.1W early Sun, and 
weaken to a tropical storm near 26.5N 70.5W Mon. Moderate trade 
winds will persist elsewhere over the Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto,
T.S. Jerry, and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A 1018 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 29N39W. 
A surface trough is analyzed from 17N54W to 23N56W with scattered
thunderstorms seen within 60 nm on either side of the trough. To 
the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N23W to 
28N31W, then stationary front continues from 27N42W to 22N51W. 
Showers are seen along the front. 

Hurricane Humberto near 32.2N 68.1W 952 mb at 11 AM EDT moving 
ENE at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Humberto
will pass north of Bermuda tonight and farther into the central 
north Atlantic waters into Friday. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Jerry 
is in the tropical Atlantic ocean near 14.6N 49.2W 1002 mb at 11 
AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55
kt. Jerry will move to 15.3N 51.0W this evening, 16.3N 53.7W Thu 
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 56.5W Thu evening, 
18.4N 59.5W Fri morning, and 20.5N 65.3W Sat morning. Jerry will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 23.3N 69.1W early Sun, 
and weaken to a tropical storm near 26.5N 70.5W Mon. 

$$
MMTorres