780 
AXNT20 KNHC 292332
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall: Disorganized showers and thunderstorm continue 
in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located
about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, there are 
no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. 
Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward 
to west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally 
heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, 
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
The main hazards for Puerto Rico will be urban flooding, lightning,
and gusty winds, especially tonight into Monday. The potential 
for isolated flash flooding is lower but cannot be ruled out. 
Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals remain 
uncertain. Islands local topography could enhance orographic 
lift and support additional rainfall, varying by island. Peak 
rainfall rates are expected from tonight through Sun. 

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 34W, south of 18N, moving westward at 
around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. 

A tropical wave is along 58W, south of 21N, moving westward around
20 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure, remnants of T.S. Dolly, is along 
the wave axis near 17N58W. A cluster of moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within about 90 nm NW quadrant of low 
center. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are 
noted on either side of the wave axis per scatterometer and 
altimeter data, covering roughly the waters from 16N to 22N 
between 50W and 60W.

A tropical wave is along 70W and extends from Dominican Republic
to western Venezuela, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis, affecting
Dominican Republic and the southern offshore waters. 

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 83W, south 
of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to
enhance convection over parts of Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W, and extends SW to near 10N24W, and
westward to near 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 
11N53W. In addition to the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present near 
the ITCZ.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 
29N87W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over
Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers, with 
embedded thunderstorms, are noted elsewehre over the Gulf 
waters. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective 
activity. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. 
Under this pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail. Winds and seas could be higher near 
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, cloudiness and showers associated with a weak 
low pressure area centered about 125 miles south of Pensacola, 
Florida, have become a little better organized since yesterday. 
Some additional slow development of this system is possible 
during the next few days as it drifts westward. Currently, this 
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 
days. Regardless of development, mariners over the northeast and
north-central Gulf can expect thunderstorms with gusty winds and
locally higher seas into early next week. Elsewhere, a weak 
pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and 
slight seas into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh 
with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to
a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each 
night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall
information associated to a strong tropical wave that will cross 
the northern Leeward Islands tonight. 

High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low
supports fresh to strong trades offshore Colombia where seas are
7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas 
are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, and also 
in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail. Convection has fakred-up over
most of Cuba and Jamaica while a tropical wave is enhancing
convection over Dominican Republic. Showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the remnant of Dolly are reaching the northern Leeward
Islands.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern
Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun 
and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong 
to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with 
locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters. Otherwise, the pressure 
gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower 
pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough 
seas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds 
will diminish slightly early next week as the aforementioned 
tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
about a strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, that is approaching
the Lesser Antilles. 

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring between Bermuda
and the Bahamas, particularly N of 24N and W of 68W. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A 
ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, 
anchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near
35N33W. Another high pressure center of 1026 mb is noted NE of 
Bermuda near 35N54W. Aside from the winds and seas associated 
with the remnants of Dolly, fresh to locally strong northerly 
winds and moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of 
20N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. 
Elsewhere, the ridge generally supports moderate to locally fresh
winds easterly winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross 
the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave 
will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and 
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 
23N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer 
trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early 
next week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, 
supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. 
Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola 
through Sun night.

$$
GR