891 
AXNT20 KNHC 162234
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 35W from 06N to
20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated with this
wave has diminished this evening. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 06N to 22N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 12N to 14N between 50W and 55W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Hispaniola to
Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 68W and 77W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends 
southwestward to 13N25W to 12N35W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W 
and continues to 13N45W to 12N50W. Another segment of the ITCZ is
noted from 11N55W to 09N60W. No significant convection is evident
aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section
above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb 
high pressure center just offshore Louisiana. Scattered moderate
convection is present in the west-central Gulf in association with
a surface trough that extends roughly 120 nm offshore from
Tampico, Mexico, to Frontera, Mexico. A diurnal increase of NE
winds to moderate to fresh speeds is occurring in the eastern Bay
of Campeche, otherwise winds are light to gentle. Seas are mainly
1 to 3 ft, with localized 4 ft seas near the Yucatan Channel and
in the Florida Straits. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support 
mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A 
diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to 
occasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each 
evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at
night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on Central Caribbean
convection because caused by a tropical wave. In the NW basin, 
scattered moderate convection is noted between Cuba and Jamaica, 
and northward from the Gulf of Honduras to just offshore the 
Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between low pressure to
the south and the Atlantic ridge centered east of the Bahamas is 
supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas over the central 
Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9 ft seas across most of
the rest of the basin. Moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas 
elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean north and west of the
Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the 
area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean though Mon. A tropical wave in the central 
Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will create 
locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue westward 
across the western Caribbean early this week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pre-frontal trough has moved S of 31N and extends this evening
from 31N59W to 27N64W. Scattered moderate convection associated 
with this trough and the parent cold front are impacting waters N 
of 27N between 52W and 72W. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high, 
anchored by a 1022 mb high center N of the Bahamas dominates. 
Ahead of the aforementioned trough, fresh SW winds and 6 to 8 ft 
seas extend E to 50W. Otherwise, moderate seas and moderate or 
weaker winds dominate the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 
ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central 
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 
south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the 
northern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across
the northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by 
Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front
and E of 70W today and tonight. 

$$
Konarik