000
AXNT20 KNHC 131725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection prevails S of 16N and W of 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N41W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N41W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted along the monsoon trough and 
E of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers over the north-
central and NE Gulf waters. Scattered moderate convection is also
occurring in the far SW Gulf along a surface trough. Ridging 
expanding from the Atlantic and into the Gulf sustains fresh 
easterly winds south of 24N. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the 
area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern 
Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, 
and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central
and SW Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are occurring in the central to
SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate seas are 
noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident in the 
eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America
will support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the 
central Caribbean through the week. East winds will pulse fresh to
locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward 
Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and
between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas 
are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will 
support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds 
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night 
offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. 


$$
Adams