696 
AXNT20 KNHC 052312
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb
high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower 
pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale- force 
northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Gale-force winds are
expected to occur through 06/1200 UTC, with severe gusts. These 
winds will create rough seas of 10-12 ft and higher. Similar 
conditions will continue into the weekend. For more details, refer
to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 23W-24W, south of 13N, moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 08N 
between 18W and 30W.

A tropical wave is along 49W-50W, south of 13N, moving westward 
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
evident S of 09N between 44W and 54W.

Another tropical wave is along 60W-61W, south of 17N, moving 
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the 
wave axis S of 10N and extends inland across Venezuela.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 72W-73W, 
south of 176N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 11N to 18.5N between 70W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05N28W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09.5N between 09W and
19W. Elsewhere, significant convection in this area is primarily 
associated with the tropical waves previously mentioned.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong E 
to SE winds over the northeastern Gulf and into SE Louisiana, 
north of a dissipated stationary front that extended across 
western Cuba to to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas
across these waters are 3 to 4 ft offshore of western Florida and
increase to 6 to 8 ft E of the Mississippi Delta. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds prevail elsewhere E of 93W, where seas are 
3 to 5 ft. W of 93W winds are light and variable, with seas of 3
to 5 ft NW portions and 3 ft or less SW portions. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are across NE central portions, 
near the dissipated frontal boundary, and across NW portions.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally 
prevail across the Gulf region through Tue. The exception will be
off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support 
moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the 
evenings. Disturbed weather may develop across south-central and
eastern portions of the basin Thu night through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located 
near 33N33W, extends southwestward to near 25N70W, and north of
the N Caribbean. The ridge, combined with the Colombian low, 
supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in
the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, where seas
are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail. Scattered convection is active across
central portions generally N of 14N, as a tropical wave interacts
with an upper trough across the western Atlantic and Bahamas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate
seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic
ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The
exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight. Winds will begin to increase again over the central
Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early
next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic
ridge and broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific
offshore of Central America. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the Meteo-France forecast region. 

A stationary frontal boundary extends from SE of Bermuda through
31N63W southwestward through the central Bahamas and into western
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over much of the 
central and southern Bahamas, and within 180 nm SE of the frontal
boundary, supported by a middle to upper-level trough across the
western Atlantic. Weak high pressure across the SE U.S. is promoting
gentle to moderate N to NE winds behind the front, where seas are
5 to 6 ft in N to NE swell. To the east, 1028 mb high pressure is
located SW of the Azores, producing a broad subtropical ridge, 
supporting moderate to fresh trades across the vast majority of 
the Atlantic W of 30W, and seas of 5 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong SW 
winds prevail within 180 nm east of the stationary front, and N of
29N. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north
of 18N and east of 30W, where seas area 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to 
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Saharan air
dominates the region S of 23N between Africa and 40W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front from SE of 
Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will dissipate 
late into Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. 
This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas into early next week. 

$$
Stripling