095 
AXNT20 KNHC 151819
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to 
the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW 
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to 1008 mb low pressure captured by recent ASCAT scatterometer
data at 06N33.5W to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to the
coast of northern South America at 05N52W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W
and 25W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE
semicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle of the low.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting
isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern half of 
the basin. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the SW
Gulf with little impacts. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across
the basin with moderate E-SE winds dominating. Seas are 1-3 ft in
the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through 
Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to
moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest 
Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay 
of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the 
west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by 
early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with 
the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over 
the SW Gulf through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting
isolated to widely scattered showers over the NW portion of the
basin. A surface trough extends from 20N84W to eastern Honduras
and NE Nicaragua at 13N84W. These features support moderate
isolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 77W and 83W. 
Fresh to locally strong winds are in the S-central Caribbean with
moderate to fresh elsewhere west of 68W, except gentle to moderate
in the SW Caribbean S of 11N, and near the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 ft E of 68W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere
except slight in the SW Caribbean and near the coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the 
Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming 
weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. An area 
of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will
continue to affect the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Gusty 
winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this 
convective activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough is in the central Atlantic extending from N of
the area through 31N52W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of 29N within 60-120 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate SW
winds are across the same area with 6-8 ft seas. Recent ASCAT 
scatterometer data showed a 1013 mb low pressure off to the SE 
near 21N37W with a N to S oriented surface trough through the low.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N 
to 23N between 27W and 32W, and also from 22N to 26N between 33W 
and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are found from 20N to 27N between
30W and 40W near the low and trough. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Seas
are 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters E of 55W. Please 
refer to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for additional convection
with an embedded low in the monsoon trough. A broad and weak 
pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the basin. Gentle to 
moderate winds dominate the majority and rest of the basin, 
locally fresh from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage and NE 
Cuba, and S of 10N to the W of 55W near the coast of northern 
South America. Seas are 4-7 ft in N-NE swell N of 27N between 55W
and 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere W of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate 
the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE 
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger 
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to 
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and 
rough seas will follow the front. 

$$
Lewitsky