000
AXNT20 KNHC 111709
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1709 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W southwestward to 08N23W. 
The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 11N and west of 19W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak trough over the western Gulf is inducing scattered 
moderate convection offshore the Texas and Louisiana coasts. 
Elsewhere, mainly high pressure dominates, with gentle NE winds, 
along with seas of less than 3 ft. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front will reach the Texas coast 
early on Thu, then sweep across the Gulf through Thu night exiting
the area early on Fri. Fresh to locally strong north winds and 
building seas are expected in its wake. High pressure will build 
southward into the region this weekend, with increasing easterly 
winds as the high shifts eastward Sun. Strong east winds are 
likely across portions of the northern Gulf starting Sun as the 
pressure gradient increases ahead of a low pressure and attendant 
cold front that will approach the NW Gulf for the start of next 
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of
the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to
fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central
America and in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-
central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft over the
northwest Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted in 
the NW basin due to upper-level divergence. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas 
will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into Thu night, with
mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient 
will weaken starting Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan 
Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate north winds and slightly 
building seas are likely behind this front over the northwestern 
Caribbean this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 29N48W to 27N56W. Isolated showers are 
associated with a pre-frontal trough N of 28N around 41W, 
otherwise little sensible weather is associated with this front. 
To the east, a cold front extends from 31N17W to 23W40W. Ahead of
this front, fresh to near-gale force SW winds prevail, with rough
seas. Very rough seas in NW swell, and moderate to fresh winds 
are N of the boundary. Upper-level divergence is leading to 
scattered to numerous moderate convection N of the Greater 
Antilles to 25N, between 65W and 76W. Elsewhere, weak high 
pressure is leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly 
moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to 
move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night accompanied by 
fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of it. The 
front is expected to reach from near 31N63W to the southeastern 
Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Sat afternoon, and from near 31N57W to
26N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by early Sun. Fresh to 
strong southwest winds will be east of the cold front along with 
seas possibly peaking to around 12 ft on Sat. The cold front 
portion will shift east of 55W late Sun while the stationary 
portion weakens. Fresh northeast winds are expected north of the 
stationary front to near 28N.


$$
KRV