103 
AXNT20 KNHC 291734
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri May 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W south of
17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 05N to 10N between 50W and 59W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 71W south of
15N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 
15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical
wave over the Caribbean.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W, then
curves southwestward to near 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W
to 04N37W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
10N and E of 22W, and from 00N to 09N between 36W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level low over the Bay of Campeche and attendant 1009 mb
surface low support scattered moderate to strong convection over 
the central Gulf. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas prevail across much of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into 
the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds through Tue. The exception will be evening pulses of 
fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf 
through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level 
trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid 
and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and
thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. 
Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are 
expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to
date with the latest forecasts. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is located over SE Mexico while the East 
Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean. The
combined effects from these features are enhancing numerous 
moderate to strong convection in the SW Caribbean along the coasts
of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, with more scattered moderate
convection occurring along the coasts of Belize and the eastern 
Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the region and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong 
trades and 7-9 ft seas across the south-central to SW Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the
remainder of the Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will sustain fresh 
to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean this 
morning before gradually diminishing in areal coverage this 
afternoon and evening. Moderate E to SE winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras are going to pulse to fresh speeds during the night 
through Tue night. The aforementioned ridge is going to weaken as 
a couple of frontal boundaries move across the western Atlantic. 
This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas 
across most of the basin through Tue, except the south-central 
Caribbean, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 
persist. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to reach the 
Windward Islands by Sat afternoon, leading to increased shower 
activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front runs along 31N between 68W and 80W. Ahead of the 
front, generally N of 27N between 45W and 70W, SW winds have 
increased to fresh to strong speeds while seas are building to 
7-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 28N 
between 75W and 80W. All other convection across the Atlantic is 
associated with tropical waves or the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Ridging
dominates much of the remaining Atlantic, with moderate to fresh 
winds and moderate seas prevailing across the vast majority of the
basin W of 25W. Areas E of 25W and N of 17N are seeing fresh to 
strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas, confirmed by 
scatterometer data from this morning. Gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail within a ridge axis that extends
from just W of the Canary Islands through the central Atlantic and
to areas just N of the Bahamas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge over the western Atlantic 
will support gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 
26N through Tue. For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, two 
cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic are going
to bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas through this
evening, then again from Sat night through Sun night. Winds may 
reach near gale force ahead of the second front Sat night through 
Sun.

$$
Adams