000
AXNT20 KNHC 161722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near 43W,
from 12N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
showers are along the south end of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near 65W, from 18N
southward into central Venezuela. This wave is moving westward at
around 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves 
southwestward to 01N38W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this time. Scattered
moderate convection is present along and S of the monsoon trough 
E of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging is dominating the basin, with weak diurnal 
troughs along the Florida Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche. 
Fresh SE winds are E of the trough in the Bay of Campeche, and 
also in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, winds 
are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2 to 5 ft in the western basin, 
and 3 ft or less in the east. 

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western 
Atlantic to the northern Gulf into the middle of next week. Expect
moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf into early 
next week between the high pressure and lower pressure over 
Mexico. Also expect fresh to occasionally strong wind pulses off 
the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings into next 
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge N of the
region and a 1008 mb low over far northern Colombia is sustaining
strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the central to SW basin. 
Mainly fresh winds with 5 to 8 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the 
central to eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate E winds and 
slight seas in the NW basin. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection has developed within 90 nm of the coasts of 
Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua due to converging low-level 
winds and the influence of the East Pacific monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades
across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, 
with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast
waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the 
tropical Atlantic waters into Mon night, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring along much of this 
trough. Moderate NE winds prevail north of the trough with gentle 
to moderate SE to S winds south and east of the trough to about 
60W. Otherwise, much of the basin is dominated by ridging stemming
from high pressure north of the region. This is leading to 
widespread moderate to fresh easterly winds, with moderate seas. S
of 12N and W of 40W, rough seas in a mix of wind waves and 
easterly swell prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central 
Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough 
seas with E swell into Sun. A weak trough extending from 31N62W 
to the Bahamas will weaken today, leaving tranquil marine 
conditions in place elsewhere into the middle of next week. 

$$
Adams