994 
AXNT20 KNHC 102219
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between 
broad western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower 
pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong 
trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean 
Sea through the middle of the week. These trades are forecast to 
reach near-gale to gale-force tonight off northwest Colombia with
seas building to a peak of 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 20W south
of 10N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 01N to 05N between the wave and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W south of 
10N to inland the central portion of Suriname. It is moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm east of the wave from 06N to 10N, and within 60 nm west of
the wave from 06N to 09N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau to 05N16W and to 02N23W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ and continues southwestward to beyond 00N25W to 04S34W 
and to inland Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection 
is well south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 03N between 
06W-13W, also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W-50W, and
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 38W-45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough extends from southeastern Louisiana to just east
of South Texas while another a trough extends from northeast 
Florida southwestward to near Cedar Key, Florida and to near 
27N88W. In the southwest part of the basin, a 1009 mb low 
is near 21N97W, with a trough extending to Tampico and another 
trough that reaches from the low to just east of Veracruz,
Mexico. The atmosphere remains very moist and unstable to the 
south and east of these troughs. In addition, a well pronounced 
subtropical jet stream branch stretches from the eastern Pacific 
northeastward across the basin contributing to the atmospheric 
instability. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
seen from 19N to 25N between 91W and 95W, including the central Bay 
of Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere 
between a line from 30N91W to Veracruz and 87W and also north of 26N 
east of 87W. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient is generally 
allowing for light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, including 
the Straits of Florida, and for gentle to moderate southeast to 
south winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite 
data passes and recent buoy observations indicate seas of 2 to 4 ft 
throughout, except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft over the northeast 
part of the basin.

For the forecast, the low will continue to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf into Mon. 
Fresh to strong southeast winds will pulse each evening offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough moves off the coast. A
cold front will move off the Texas coast early Mon morning, with
thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will move southeastward 
and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then 
stall over the far southeast part of the basin Wed. Ahead of the 
front, fresh to locally strong southeast winds will pulse tonight
and Mon night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough
moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about expected gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight.

Fresh to strong trades are over the south-central portion of 
the basin per latest scatterometer satellite data. Seas with 
these winds are in the range of 8 to 12 ft. Similar seas are 
to the west from 11N to 15N between 76W and 80W. The scatterometer
satellite data also reveals mostly fresh trades over just about 
the remainder of the basin, except south of 11N between the coast
of Colombia and Central America, where trades are lighter, gentle
to moderate in speeds, and seas are 6 to 9 ft in northeast swell.
Moderate southeast winds are between Cuba and Jamaica and 
south of Cuba to 19N between Jamaica and 84W. Seas with these 
winds are 4 to 6 ft per a recent altimeter satellite data pass.
Seas of about 4 to 7 ft are elsewhere, except for higher seas of
6 to 9 ft in east to southeast swell north of 15N east of 72W.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have recently developed 
over most of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Feature section, 
a tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trades 
along with rough seas in the south-central portion of the sea 
through late in the week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong
winds and locally rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are 
expected across the remainder of the eastern and central 
Caribbean through at least the middle portion of the week.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The ingredients consisting of mid-level disturbances and a 
stationary front off the Georgia coast is resulting in 
abundant atmospheric instability that is bringing scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection off the Florida coast 
north of about 29N and spreading eastward to near 72W. Gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
north of 25N between 70W and the Florida coast. To the east, the
pressure gradient related to a broad subtropical ridge is 
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 
25N between 35W and 70W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east- 
southeast winds are from 15N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas. 
Seas are about 5 to 6 ft in these areas. Moderate to fresh northeast 
to east winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the 
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of
the basin, with the pressure gradient between it and lower 
pressure in the Caribbean expected to support fresh to locally 
strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. A cold 
front is expected to reach the waters off northeastern Florida 
Mon night, and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh 
to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front 
before it weakens and conditions improve Tue night. Along and
ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, are expected.
Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the central 
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh southeast to south 
winds and moderate to rough seas easts of about 70W. 

$$
Aguirre