000
AXNT20 KNHC 172209
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Mar 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period N swell 
generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the 
northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N 
through Wed. Expect seas of 12 and 18 ft from 25N to 31N between 
30W and 45W tonight. These very rough seas will shift farther 
southward to near 23N Wed morning, and then become reinforced with
additional large N swell Wed through Thu. Seas across these 
northeastern waters will remain 12 ft and greater through at least
Fri night.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

Then monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W, then curves southwestward to 03N20W. An ITCZ 
continues from 02N24W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 10W and 17W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 
04N between 17W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The cold front has cleared the basin this afternoon, taking
convection with it. In its wake, 1029 mb high pressure centered
over eastern Texas is building into the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE
winds dominate the SE half of the basin, with winds diminishing to
gentle to moderate to the NW. Seas are rough where the winds are
fresh to strong, with some very rough seas to 13 ft in the Bay of
Campeche and in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate seas
exist. 

For the forecast, winds will continue to diminish, and seas will 
continue to subside from north to south through this afternoon and
evening, except for the Yucatan Channel, where fresh to strong N 
to NE winds will linger until Wed morning. In the wake of the 
front on Wed, high pressure will build across the region and 
prevail into the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel, with scattered
moderate convection along and within 90 nm south of it. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted along and east of a surface 
trough that extends southward from central Cuba through the Cayman
Islands. The association thunderstorms continue eastward to 
waters near Jamaica. N of the cold front, strong to near gale-
force NE winds and rapidly building rough seas exist. Elsewhere 
across the NW and SW basin, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 
are moderate. Across the central basin, fresh to strong winds and 
seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail, with fresh winds and moderate seas 
farther east. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward 
from the north Atlantic to near the central Bahamas and the NE 
Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and 
central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages 
through Wed. The cold front will slow down and possibly stall 
from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning 
while dissipating. This should decrease the influence from the 
ridge and allow winds and seas across the central and eastern 
Caribbean to gradually subside through Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front extends from 31N73W to the Central Bahamas to Florida
Straits. A band of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
exists ahead of it, along a pre-frontral trough drapped from
31N71W to the SE Bahamas. Behind the front, moderate to fresh N
winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. E of the front,
an expansive surface trough dominates the basin, anchored by a
1041 mb high pressure at 41N47W. These is leading to widespread 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, with moderate to rough
seas. A weakening cold front over the eastern waters is noted 
from 31N21W to 26N48W. Strong N winds and very rough seas are N of
this boundary. 

For the forecast west of 55W, by Wed afternoon, the front will 
stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. At the same time, 
a weak low pressure system may develop along the stationary front,
tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong 
winds with rough to very rough seas through the rest of the week 
as this system moves eastward. 

$$
Konarik