000
AXNT20 KNHC 282344
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 
02N to 17N moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are near 
the wave axis from 04N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of
13N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is west of the wave to 55W from 07N to 10N.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 64W south of 
20N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. No deep convection is near 
the wave at the present time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 08N21W and 
west-southwestward to 07N28.5W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 
07N35W to 07N28W and to 07.5N45W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 30 nm north of the trough between 20W-28W. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the trough from 05N to 
08N between 16W-20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N85W, with a 
ridge extending westward to near central Texas. The related 
gradient between it and relatively lower pressures in Texas and 
in northeast Mexico is generally providing for moderate to fresh 
southeast to south over the western Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with
these winds. Gentle or weaker winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft
are elsewhere across the basin. A mid to upper-level low moving 
westward across central Cuba has a trough that extends 
northwestward into the eastern Gulf, where there is ample 
moisture in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 
just west of the Florida Keys to near 84W from 24N to 26N while 
isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 28N 
east of 88W. Isolated showers are south of 23N west of 94W while 
scattered showers are over the central and southeastern portions 
of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds will pulse off the northwest portion of the Yucatan 
Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning, and prevail the 
remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected 
elsewhere east of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low
pressure in Colombia and nearby areas is sustaining strong to 
near-gale force trades along with seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft
across the south-cental Caribbean. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W reported 
a wave height maximum of 11 ft earlier today. Mostly fresh
trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the 
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are over the 
remainder of the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except a little 
lower of 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and north of 18N west 
of 85W.

Scattered moderate convection is along and just offshore the
northern and western coasts of Jamaica. Similar activity is 
over some sections of western and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and low pressure in Colombia and nearby areas will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central 
Caribbean into midweek, except reaching near gale-force speeds 
offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are 
forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next 
several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A high pressure ridge axis stretches southwestward from well 
northeast of the area through a 1026 mb high center at 33N46W, 
and continues southwestward to 30N67W and west-southwest to 
across central Florida and over the Gulf of America. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure ridge and relatively lower 
pressure in the deep tropics is favoring trades of moderate to 
fresh speeds south of about 23N east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft over these waters, except for higher seas of 6 to 
8 ft in east swell from 11N to 15N between 55W and Lesser 
Antilles.

In the far eastern part of the basin, fresh to strong northeast
winds are present north of 17N east of 22W to along the coast 
of Africa due to a tight pressure gradient between the north
Atlantic high pressure and broad low pressure in western Africa,
where a segment of the monsoon trough is located. Seas are 
5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds 
along with seas 3 to 5 ft remain. 

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High 
will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the 
basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north 
of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings 
for the next several days. On Mon, a weak frontal boundary should
emerge off the southeastern United States coast, and reach from 
approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue 
morning. While the frontal boundary is forecast to dissipate on 
Wed, a broad low pressure area is forecast to along the frontal 
boundary offshore of the southeastern United States coast on 
Mon or Tue. Gradual development is possible while the system 
drifts southward and then westward before environmental 
conditions become less conducive later this week.

$$
Aguirre