000
AXNT20 KNHC 311420
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Large Swell: 
A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N45W to 25N57W. A shear line curves
westward from 25N57W to off northern Hispaniola. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that near-gale NE winds, up
to 30 kt, prevail in the vicinity of the front. These winds will
continue to weaken as the front dissipates gradually today. Large,
long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 16 ft up
behind the boundary to 69W. Seas to 8 ft extends within 200 nm
east of the front and also between 69W and 77W. This northerly
swell will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing
seas to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed
evening. However, rough to locally very rough seas will prevail
through possibly early next week.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the following website: 
MIAHSFAT2.shtm'>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 02N13W to 00N33W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and between
15W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into
the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and
moderate seas east of 90W. Gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate
seas are prevalent west of 90W. Convergent low-level winds sustain
a few showers south of SE Louisiana and in the SW Gulf waters,
with generally dry weather conditions dominating the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected
over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the
Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong
E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The strong high pressure system north of the islands supports
fresh to strong easterly winds off southern Hispaniola and
Windward Passage, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally 
strong easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring in the 
south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are evident in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Pockets of low-level
moisture traverse the Caribbean waters, producing isolated, fast-
moving showers. The strongest convection is seen off Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of
the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, 
pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will 
also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu nigh. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the large swell. 

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and
continues southwestward to 25N57W, where it transitions into a
shear line to just off northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm of these boundaries.
The strong pressure gradient between the robust ridge to the north
and the lower pressures associated with the front and shear line
sustain fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the SW
North Atlantic waters behind the front and shear line. Please see
the Special Features section for info about the swell producing
rough to very rough seas.

A large plume of Saharan dust envelops the far NE Atlantic,
especially north of 22N and east of 20W. Mariners in these waters
should use caution due to reduced visibility. The central and
eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical
ridge. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found
north of 22N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, near gale force NE winds will
prevail in the vicinity of the aforementioned front today. The 
front will dissipate by Tue. Strong high pressure is building in 
the wake of the front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to
very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore 
forecast waters the second half of the week.

 
$$
Delgado