000
AXNT20 KNHC 121655
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 72W
from the SW Dominican Republic southward, moving westward at 15 
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N southward
between 66W and 73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and 
continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W
to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
and W of 47W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward
across Florida and into the Gulf region. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in the northern Gulf as diffluent winds 
aloft combine with southeasterly moisture return flow at the 
surface. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche also supports 
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough axis. The 
subtropical ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds east of 
88W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail west of 88W, 
strongest winds occurring near the surface trough in the Bay of 
Campeche. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the 
area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern 
Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, 
and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting 
gentle to moderate SE winds. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. 

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the 
Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. Rough seas
are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean along the eastern 
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America
will continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds 
across the central Caribbean early this week. East winds will 
pulse strong each evening into mid-week in the Gulf of Honduras 
and Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A diffluent pattern aloft and a surface trough analyzed from
22N64W to 31N55W is helping to induce scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across the waters N of 23N between 55W and 62W. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad 
subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds south of 
23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of 
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh
trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. 
Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola 
and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
Adams