000
AXNT20 KNHC 222114
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level 
trough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, 
while deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the
southern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact
with the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining 
moisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the 
next several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore
flow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, 
where heavy precipitation is expected from tonight through Sunday.
Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur across all other 
aforementioned areas on Saturday and Sunday. Heavy rainfall will 
raise concerns for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding.
Please refer to your local weather services and the International
Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07N12W 
and extends to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 08N27W. It
resumes from 08N33W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 02N to 09N between 16W and 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas prevail S of 20N and W of
95.5W. Elsewhere, Moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
noted. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across 
the Gulf region will diminish by tonight. A tightening pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and a low pressure forecast to 
develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and 
rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine 
conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf by late Sat 
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are 
also expected in the Straits of Florida, particularly Sunday night
into Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is generating moderate or
weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, over the Caribbean
waters. 

For the forecast, a broad trough will persist over the central 
Caribbean through at least Sun. The Atlantic high pressure will 
extends a ridge over the eastern Caribbean while high pressure 
over the eastern of the United States will strengthen. Under this 
weather pattern, the forecast calls for light winds and slight to 
moderate seas over the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds and moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin, and
moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds with mainly moderate seas
over the NW Caribbean through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 10011 mb low is centered near 31N52W, with a trough extending
from the low to near 26N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to
strong southerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are east of the
trough between 45W and 52W. Large northerly swell generated from
Post-Tropical Josephine north of the area is generating rough 
seas N of 25N and W of 70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, 
and moderate seas, prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue
to propagate across the forecast region mainly W of 65W and NE of
the Bahamas tonight and Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will 
develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over 
the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas 
along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is 
expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force 
over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sun and Sun 
night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous 
marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the
affected areas. 

$$
AL