000
AXNT20 KNHC 040441
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon May 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave is along 43W, from 10N southward, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the
wave axis. The wave continues to move through a hostile dry 
environment which inhibits other impacts.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then 
continues SW to near 03N22.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22.5W to 
00N38W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is
depicted from 01N to 05N between 17W and 26W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05S01N between 21W and 39W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the 
Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found N 
of the front affecting the SW Florida offshore waters and the 
Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found 
south of 27.5N, except for strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz. 
Seas within these winds are 5 to 8 ft, except for seas to 10 ft 
offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere, light to gentle and 2 to 5 ft seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will wash 
out by Mon morning. Strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz will 
diminish overnight. Elsewhere, fresh N to NE winds will continue 
behind the front through Mon. Moderate to fresh SE to S return 
flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu. A quiet period 
is expected to start by the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central 
Caribbean, except for strong wind over the Gulf of Venezuela and 
offshore Colombia. Seas within these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle 
to locally moderate E to SE winds prevail over the NW part of the 
basin along with seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection, 
associated with the equatorial trough, continues to flare up in 
the SW Caribbean offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and 
southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to 
strong trades over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh 
trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the 
next several days. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift 
across the western caribbean through Tue. SE winds over the Gulf 
of Honduras will increase up to strong speeds Tue through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N64W to the Florida Straits. 
Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Recent 
satellite scatterometer data depict moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds north of the front, with 4 to 8 ft seas. Elsewhere across 
the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high pressure prevails, 
anchored by 1021 mb high pressure located near 25N57W. To the 
east, a 1012 mb low pressure north of the area and a surface 
trough are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 25N 
between 21W and 30W. The pressure gradient between these features 
combined with lower pressures over W Africa, is promoting an area 
of moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas between W Africa 
and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades and 
moderate seas are seen across the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
reach from 31N59W to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W early
on Mon. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just 
south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending 
southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be 
dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong NE winds north 
of the front through tomorrow. Conditions across the forecast 
waters should become quiescent Tue through Thu. A weak cold front 
may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward 
through the end of the week.

$$
KRV