000
AXNT20 KNHC 192308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N11W southwestward to 
03N17W, where it transitions to 00N30W to 01S47W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of 
the ITCZ between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W-35W and within 60 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 33W-38W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A late-season cold front extends from north-central Florida
southwestward to 27N88W and to a weak 1018 mb low at 25N96W.
A cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to inland 
Mexico just south of Mexico. Fresh to strong north-nortehast 
winds are behind the front as noted in recent scatterometer 
satellite data. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds are indicated
in buoy data and also confirmed by an altimeter satellite data 
pass. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are east of the 
front. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. A surface trough is 
analyzed in the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh northeast winds 
are over the Bay of Campeche somewhat supported by the trough. 
Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast winds 
and moderate to rough seas will follow the cold front as it moves
southward across the northern Gulf through Mon. The front is 
then expected to stall from the Straits of Florida to South 
Texas Mon night. On Tue, the western portion of this boundary 
will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while
the eastern portion will resume moving southward into Cuba and 
the Yucatan Channel. In the wake of the front, gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A fairly weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for 
moderate or weaker trades to exist across the basin, with 
locally fresh trades possible in the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia, the southern tip of Hispaniola, and 
within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles into at least 
midweek. Seas are about 3 to 5 ft across the basin, with locally 
higher seas within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the interior
of some sections of central Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are just inland the eastern tip of eastern Cuba, and along and
just inland and offshore the southern coast of Jamaica.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will 
support mainly gentle to moderate winds through Tue. Fresh to 
strong northeast winds may develop Tue night and Wed across the 
Windward Passage and at the lee of Cuba associated with a late- 
season cold front moving across Cuba. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A late-season cold front has just emerged along the coast of
northeast Florida. It extends southwestward across north-central 
Florida and to the Gulf of America. Light northwest winds are 
behind the front along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. A pre-frontal 
trough extends from near 31N77.5W to near Daytona Beach. An area 
of isolated showers and thunderstorms is located from 26N to 28N
and west 75W to inland South Florida. Similar activity is seen 
from 24N to 27N between 71W and 74W. Broad anticyclonic flow 
around a high pressure ridge that extends from near 31N53W to 
28N69W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with its
associated gradient for gentle to moderate trades across most of
the basin. Seas are indicated in the range of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds behind the aforementioned
late-season cold front will become fresh to strong north to 
northeast winds tonight. Rough seas will follow the front as it 
reaches from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Mon 
afternoon, and from near 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue 
afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish Tue night as the front 
stalls and dissipates along 22N by late Wed. High pressure will 
settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda in the wake of 
the front. Large north swell may linger near the dissipating 
front Wed into Thu, including waters near the Windward Passage. 

$$
Aguirre