000
AXNT20 KNHC 032241
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 44W, south of 20N, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 13N between 44W and 52W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 
77W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave
appears to enhance convection over eastern Cuba and the south-
central Caribbean. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N23W to 
09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N50W to 09N60W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave, no significant
convection is noted elsewhere.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Gulf region. This system is also enhancing convection over the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is analyzed over the 
western Gulf and runs from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of 
Campeche. The pressure gradient between this trough and a ridge 
over the western Atlantic and Florida is allowing for mostly 
fresh southeast winds to exist E of the trough axis. Light to 
gentle winds are occurring west of the trough axis. Seas are 
generally moderate, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas are 
in the 1 to 3 ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will follow a weak 
frontal boundary that will drift into the far northwest Gulf off 
the Texas coast tonight, then along the Mexican coast to Veracruz
through Tue. A ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into 
north Florida through late Sun, supporting moderate to fresh SE 
to S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft across much of the central and 
eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this ridge will shift southeastward 
into midweek ahead of the slowly moving front, which will stall 
over the northern Gulf by mid week. Fresh NE to E winds and 
building seas will persist north of the front, with fresh to 
strong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz through the early part
of the week. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas 
will persist elsewhere through the latter part of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting  
the Greater Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and parts of the NW 
Caribbean under a diffluent pattern aloft. High pressure north of
the area, combined with the Colombian Low is supporting moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea 
with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a weak ridge over the western Atlantic will 
support moderate E to SE winds across all but the far southwest 
Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh winds 
pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras at night. These 
winds and associated seas will diminish by mid week, as the high 
pressure shifts eastward, although fresh winds may continue to 
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras through Fri.

Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are 
possible across Hispaniola the remainder of the weekend, mainly
over Haiti and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will
deepen toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near 
the island by Sun. This combined with available moisture and 
local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain 
upslope lifting will likely increase the chances of rain in the 
area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low located N of Hispaniola is generating scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This convective activity 
is more concentrated south of 27N between 62W and 70W. A surface
trough is analyzed in this area, and extends from 28N63W to 20N70W.
High pressure of 1021 mb is located NE of Bermuda near 34N63W.
Its associated ridge dominates the western Atlantic, including
the Bahamas and Florida. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted
under the influence of the ridge NE of the Bahamas while moderate
easterly winds are evident between the Bahamas and Cuba, and in 
the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is dominated by high pressure. The pressure gradient between
this feature and a trough extending over NW Africa supports fresh
NE winds offshore Western Sahara and southern Morocco, including
between the Canary Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these wind
speeds. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge will shift eastward 
through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall off the NE 
Florida coast Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas may 
follow the front, but stay over the coastal waters off far NE 
Florida through mid week. Gentle to moderate and slight seas will
persist elsewhere.

$$
GR