000
AXNT20 KNHC 250559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jul 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic. Its axis is near 
34W, extends from 06N to 21N and is moving westward around 10 to 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03N to 12N
between 26W and 43W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic. Its axis is near 57W,
extends from 06N to 19N and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 18N between
46W and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean. Its axis is near 
69W, extends from 18N southward and is moving westward around 10 
to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in 
association with the wave.

A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean. Its axis is near 86W,
extends from 20N southward and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the W Caribbean between
79W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues
SW to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 06N53W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 13W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the N Gulf near 29N88W. 
A surface trough along western Florida is generating scattered
moderate convection in the NE Gulf N of 26N E of 85W. In the SW
Gulf, scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong winds 
associated with a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche along 92W,
which is generating scattered showers offshore the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Moderate or weaker E to SE winds are elsewhere W of
88W. East of 88W, winds are light to gentle. Slight seas are
basin-wide. 

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the Gulf will 
bring gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin into 
early next week. Fresh winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan 
Peninsula each evening this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia 
and high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong 
trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. In the E
basin, E winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate while in
the NW Caribbean winds are moderate or weaker and seas are slight. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central 
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Moderate 
or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
persist over much of the western Caribbean into Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores High well north of the area along with lower pressure 
over the ITCZ and the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to 
isolated fresh trades west of 30W with seas of 4-6 ft. A larger 
pressure gradient farther east is forcing fresh to strong NE 
winds with seas 7-10 ft north of 20N east of 30W, including the
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will shift 
southward this weekend, allowing a cold front to move into the 
northern waters between Bermuda and Florida Mon, before stalling 
and dissipating through the middle of next week. Fresh SW winds 
will develop E of this front, mainly N of 28N.

$$
Ramos