000
AXNT20 KNHC 130929
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0925 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is found within 120 nm on both sides of the trough 
axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are found near this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 13N16W and continues WSW to 09N27W and then to 11N44W. The 
ITCZ extends from 10N47W to the coast of NE Venezuela near 
10.5N63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1017 mb high pressure system over central Florida and lower
pressures over Mexico supports moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas in the south-central Gulf waters. 
Moderate E-SE winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the western 
Gulf. Elsewhere, under the broad ridge, light to gentle winds and 
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over central Florida will
continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to the Gulf 
waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where 
a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong 
NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building 
southward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing 
NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong
force and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed and Thu. 
Conditions will improve late this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of
the islands and lower pressures in Colombia sustain strong to near
gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central Caribbean. Rough to
very rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to strong
NE-E winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found in the Windward Passage
and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

An upper- level trough over the north-central Caribbean is 
helping to induce a few showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
Caribbean. Similar convection is found in the SW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned tight pressure gradient will
continue to support strong to near-gale easterly trade winds and 
rough to locally very rough seas over the central Caribbean for 
the next several days. Gale- force winds off Colombia will 
diminish below gale this morning. Strong winds are expected this 
morning and tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate 
to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in 
the eastern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring between
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles, especially north of 22N and
between 55W and 72W. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW
North Atlantic, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of
3-5 ft. However, a tighter pressure gradient north of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage allow for fresh to locally strong
easterly winds and moderate seas.

The interaction between a surface trough along 44W and an upper
level low near 26N50W continue to support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of the trough axis to 38W and north of
22N. An extensive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas south of 20N and west of 45W. East of 45W, moderate to fresh
NE-E winds and moderate seas are prevalent. In the remainder of
the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge will
persist over the basin through Mon night, bringing mainly 
tranquil marine conditions. However, trades north of Hispaniola 
into the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally strong into 
Mon. On Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the 
eastern United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, 
increasing NE winds to fresh to strong and causing seas to build 
to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W Tue through Wed night. 
Conditions will improve late this week. 

$$
Delgado