595 
AXNT20 KNHC 022231
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present from 06N to 10N and between 30W and 
35W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active over northeastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active off Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and dives southwestward to a 1011 mb low
pressure near 16N30W and then to 10N45W. No significant convection
is evident other than already described in the Tropical Wave
section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front reaches from Mobile Bay, Alabama across the far
northwest Gulf to Galveston Bay, Texas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active across the northern Gulf from Texas to
the Big Bend area of Florida. The Atlantic ridge extends east to
west along roughly 24N, from the Florida Straits to the coast of
Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. This pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh SW to W winds north of 28N where seas are 3-5
ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to
moderate winds into the upcoming week. The exceptions will be
fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan
peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far
northern Gulf, where a cold front approaching the coast will 
help to induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over 
the eastern Gulf, and over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W 
and 92W into the upcoming week as a mid to upper-level trough and
a cold front approach the Gulf coast. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The westward- building subtropical high pressure system 
positioned over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central 
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate 
seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades over the central basin through much of the week 
ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at
night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 82W is helping to 
enhance numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern 
Caribbean. The wave will move inland Central America late tonight 
into early Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture
combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. Elsewhere, the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered 
near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds 
and seas of 4-6 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of 
the remaining tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pattern will change little through Tue, 
then lift north to central Florida on Wed and north of 31N on 
Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front 
moving through the southeastern U.S. will continue to support 
fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the 
area well into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will 
pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. 

$$
Christensen