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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 282312

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.



Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night 
across northern Honduras in association with strong northerly 
onshore flow behind a slow moving cold front. Persistent heavy 
rainfall could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please monitor 
the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W 
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N29W to the coast 
of Brazil near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is S of the
monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 05W-10W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the ITCZ from 04S-07S between 24W-29W. Isolated
moderate convection is along the coast of Brazil from 00N-05S 
between 36W-50W.


As of 28/2100 UTC, a 1029 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of
Mexico near 26N95W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds are over the
Gulf with strongest winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and
weakest winds in the vicinity of the High. Broken to overcast low
clouds are over the western Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the
Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong
subsidence is noted. 

A weak frontal boundary will move across the NE Gulf tonight. 
Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the region through 
Tue. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by Tue night, 
and rapidly shift across the Gulf Wed. Gale conditions are 
possible west of the front off the coast of Veracruz and Tampico 
Tue night and Wed.


The tail end of a slow moving cold front extends from E Cuba near
20N74W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Behind the front, the weather 
conditions consist of 20-25 kt northerly winds, cooler air, and 
low-level clouds with possible showers. Seas are up to 9 ft over 
the northwestern Caribbean waters. East of the front, conditions 
are much more tranquil with light to moderate trades and only 
patches of low-level clouds. The highest seas and winds are in the
usual location near the coast of Colombia.

The cold front will continue moving east, then stall and 
dissipate from Hispaniola to Costa Rica this weekend. Fresh to 
strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sun, 
including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are also 
expected near the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week.


As of 28/2100 UTC, a 1015 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 
30N66W. A cold front extends S from the low to 24N70W to E Cuba 
near 20N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 
surface trough is N of the Virgin Islands from 22N63W to 18N65W. 
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 25N33W. Of note in the upper 
levels, an upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 
23N36W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is producing 
scattered showers approaching the Canary Islands. 

The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Atlantic
through Mon night, then stall and weaken Tue.  High pressure will
build in the wake of the front and prevail through midweek, when 
the next cold front approaches the SE coast of the United States.