000
AXNT20 KNHC 021652
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N and east of 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 09N to 12N between 51W and 57W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring S of 12N and W of 80W, likely enhanced by the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough extending through the region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 06.5N35W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06.5N35W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 05N to 11N and between 24W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate
or lighter winds and slight seas across the basin. Divergence 
aloft is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over 
the Bay of Campeche as well as the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin 
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will 
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week
due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western 
half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected 
elsewhere E of 90W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Any convection in the SW Caribbean is described in the Tropical
Waves section above.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge across the
Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia supports fresh 
to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and seas of 8-12 
ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and 
highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will support 
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the 
central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly 
through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near-gale force each 
night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern 
Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW 
part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected 
across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper-
level trough sinks across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas, aiding in
the development of scattered moderate convection between the NW 
Bahamas and SE Florida. Similar convection is occurring north of 
27N and between 50W and 65W. A 1034 mb high pressure system 
centered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward to the
waters east of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 24N and west of 35W. Moderate 
to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 20N 
and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from 
31N74W to the NW Bahamas and will gradually dissipate today while 
drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The 
Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central 
Florida through early next week. This pattern will support 
moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or 
weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late 
afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

$$
Adams