011 
AXNT20 KNHC 161802
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 09N15W to 06N25W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 08N between 13W and 33W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

1016 mb high pressure is centered just west of the Florida Keys. A
weak surface trough is analyzed along 92W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
eastern Gulf will generally maintain gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow across the basin through Mon. Afterward, 
stronger high pressure that moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic region
will build south- southwestward across the northern Gulf through 
the rest of the period, with its associated gradient resulting in 
fresh to strong southeast to south winds across most of basin, 
with the strong wind speeds expected mainly in the NW Gulf as a 
cold front moves across central Texas. Seas are expected to become
rough with these winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The sharp surface trough persists in the W Caribbean, extending
from La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba, to Cabo Gracias a Dios, 
Honduras. Scattered showers are along the trough axis and adjacent
waters. Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama
north to 11N between 75W and 83W, enhanced by the East Pacific 
Monsoon Trough. Satellite scatterometer indicates light to gentle 
trades across the basin, except in the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia where trades reach moderate speeds. Seas 
are 2-4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the basin will 
result in mainly gentle to moderate trade winds for the first half
of the week. As high pressure builds southward toward the region, 
and the Colombian low becomes evident, the trade winds will increase 
late this week. Moderate long period northeast swell will propagate 
through waters east of the Lesser Antilles as well as Caribbean 
passages into Mon. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to the eastern Dominican
Republic. Scattered moderate convection is north of 26N between
40W and 50W. A pair of 1014 mb lows are analyzed in the deep
central tropical Atlantic, with no significant convection evident
at this time. 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 27N62W, and
near the Azores. Moderate or weaker trades, and 4-7 ft seas,
prevail across the central and western Atlantic. In the eastern
Atlantic, fresh NE winds are evident in satellite scatterometer
east of 25W. Decaying N swell to 8 ft is also analyzed in the
waters east of 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach the 
southeastern part of the area this afternoon and become 
stationary, then weaken tonight and dissipate Mon. The high 
pressure will shift southeastward through Mon night as a weakening
cold front moves across the waters east of northern and central 
Florida. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southwest to west 
winds will impact the waters north of about 29N today through Mon 
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish behind the front, which is
forecast to becoming stationary across the eastern part of the 
area going into the middle portion of the week.

$$
Mahoney