000
AXNT20 KNHC 270417
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16.3N 77.5W at 27/0300 UTC or
110 nm SSW of Kingston Jamaica, moving W at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft near the
center. Melissa continues to exhibit a large and clear eye, and 
lightning is currently evident in the eyewall of Melissa. Strong
convection extends to within 90 nm to the north and 60 nm to the
south of the center. Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted in a
band well to the east of Melissa and south of Haiti, reaching 
from 13N to 17N between 72W and 75W. Melissa is expected to
continue to strengthen further as it slowly turns to the north and
northeast through Mon. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica as a powerful hurricane 
on Tue, across southeastern Cuba Tue night, and across the 
southeastern Bahamas Wed. 

Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to 
portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wed, with local storm total maxima of
40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous 
landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 
10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by 
through Wed resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and 
numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of
4 to 8 inches is expected Tue into Wed resulting in areas of 
flash flooding.

A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of
Jamaica late today through Tue morning. Peak storm surge heights 
could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east 
of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. There is also a 
potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of
Cuba late Tue or Wed. Peak storm surge heights could reach 6 to 9
feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the 
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be 
accompanied by large and destructive waves. 

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please consult products from your local 
weather office. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican 
Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the 
Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress 
of Melissa.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 04N to 18N,
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
active along the trough axis near 12N53W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough more or less terminates along the coast of
Senegal/Gambia. The ITCZ continues from there and extends to
06N30W, then on to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 04N to 06N between 22W and 30W, and from 08N to 10N
between 20W and 30W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure moving over
southern Mississippi toward the coast of Tamaulipas in northeast
Mexico. A stationary front reaches southeastward from the low
pressure to near Clearwater, Florida. A trough extends southward
from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to 23N92W. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active east of the trough near
25N90W. High pressure over the eastern U.S. is supporting moderate
E winds across the eastern Gulf, except for fresh E winds over the
Straits of Florida. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft over the eastern
Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will prevail 
over the eastern Gulf and through the Florida Straits through late
tonight. Elsewhere, a weak cold front in the northwestern basin 
will drift southeastward early this week, supporting moderate or 
weaker winds over the region. Looking ahead, a strong cold front 
is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf Tue night into Wed and 
will progress southeastward over the region through late week. 
Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will occur
in the wake of the front early Wed through Thu. Winds may reach 
gale force along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico and 
Veracruz on Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Attention remains focused on Major Hurricane Melissa. Please read
the Special Features section for more information about this 
powerful hurricane. 

Outside of the area of Melissa in the central Caribbean, moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted over the eastern
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen
over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are
active over the far northwest Caribbean off the eastern coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula

For the forecast, Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making 
landfall in Jamaica. A slow westward motion is expected overnight, followed
by a turn to the north and northeast through Tuesday. On the 
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or 
over Jamaica on Tue, across southeastern Cuba Tues night, and 
across the southeastern Bahamas on Wed. Melissa will change 
little in intensity as it moves near 30.1N 67.0W late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from south of Bermuda to near Cape
Canaveral Florida. The pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the NE to E of the United States and Major Hurricane Melissa 
located in the central Caribbean Sea is supporting a large area of
fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly W of 70W, including the 
Straits of Florida. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these winds E and N 
of the Bahamas, and 5 to 8 ft in the Straits of Florida. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast of southeast
Florida. Farther east, a surface trough is mostly stationary over
the central Atlantic from 25N43W to 17N48W. Divergence aloft
associated with an upper trough in the area is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms 180 to 240 nm east of the
surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas
are active in this area as well. North of this, a surface trough 
extends eastward from weak 1017 mb near 30N44W to 28N30W, then on 
to 1009 mb low pressure near the Azores. A few showers are active 
near the 1017 mb low pressure. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of this trough, covering the area
north of 28N between 18W and 30W. Gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the north Atlantic south
of 31N.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to occasionally strong E 
winds and rough seas will prevail west of 70W through late tonight
as a strong pressure gradient prevails between the front, high 
pressure to the north and Major Hurricane Melissa in the central 
Caribbean. A low pressure system associated with the stationary 
front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Mon, leading 
to moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 78W Mon afternoon 
through Tue, and fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the system 
offshore of northern Florida Tue through midweek. Rough seas will 
build over this region by early Tue, with seas expanding farther 
south and east Tue and Wed. Elsewhere, Major Hurricane Melissa is 
strengthening in the central Caribbean. On the forecast track, the
core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on 
Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the 
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Elsewhere, a strong cold front 
will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. by late week, 
supporting increasing winds and building seas over the western 
Atlantic. 

$$
Christensen