000
AXNT20 KNHC 190903
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Oct 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell Event: Northerly swell generated from a 
strong low pressure system over the Atlantic waters has generated
large northerly swell. Very rough seas from this swell, with seas
in excess of 12 ft, cover the waters N of 26N between 48W and 
64W. Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft near 31N52W. Seas will
gradually subside from SW to NE today, with seas falling below 12
ft over the discussion waters tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 26W from 
from 02N to 14N moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W/39W from 
02N to 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is 
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave, Invest AL98, has its axis near 57W 
from 04N to 18N, moving westward at about 20 kt. The wave is 
producing a large and persistent area of showers and 
thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that 
the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing 
winds of 30 kt north and east of the wave axis. Environmental 
conditions are expected to limit development during the next 
couple of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 
mph, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward 
Islands beginning later today and continuing through Monday 
morning. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down 
over the central Caribbean Sea.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W south of 17N. It 
is moving westward near 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 14N between 62W and 65W. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and 
continues southwestward to near 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from
06N27W to 05N37W, and continues from 05N40W and to 03N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 13W
and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally
fresh winds are over the waters E of 90W, with gentle to moderate
winds west of 90W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range E of 90W, and 1-3
ft W of 90W. 

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf 
today and move southward over the basin through Mon. Moderate N to
NE winds are expected north of the cold front, with locally fresh
winds possible north of 26N into Mon morning. High pressure will 
build in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate 
winds and slight seas over the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is building over the Atlantic waters N of the area.
This has tightened the pressure gradient supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to
locally moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean and 2-3 ft
over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are
expected over the south-central and eastern basin today as high 
pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Long period N swell 
will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic passages and over the
waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week. A 
tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the 
Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to limit development during the next couple of days as the system
moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. By the middle to latter 
part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could 
form while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. 
This system has a low chance of tropical development in the next 
48 hours and a medium chance of tropical development within the 
next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with 
locally gusty winds along with fresh to strong winds and rough 
seas will accompany this wave as it moves over the tropical 
Atlantic waters today and the eastern and central Caribbean next 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details 
on a large swell event that will impact some sections of the 
north-central waters through the weekend.

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N45W and extends
to 23N55W where it becomes stationary to the southern Bahamas. 
Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N and E of the front to 42W and N
of 28N W of the front to 55W. Outside of the 12 ft seas, seas in
the 8-12 ft range cover the open waters W of 70W and N of a line
from 21N70W to 30N40W. High pressure prevails over the remainder
of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure
center near 27N37W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are
elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, fresh to near gale winds and seas of
8-10 ft are in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 57W.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere S of 20N and W of 40W, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere S of 20N. Seas over these
waters are in the 5-8 ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually 
dissipate through Mon. Widespread rough seas north of 20N and east
of 77W will expand southeastward through the Greater Antilles 
Atlantic Passages today. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft north
of 25N and east of 65W will move NE of the area today. Rough seas
will slowly subside from west to east later today into early this
week. A series of cold fronts are forecast to move off the coast 
of the southeastern United States this week, leading to increasing
N winds offshore of Florida. 

$$
AL