801 
AXNT20 KNHC 252033
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues 
to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 07N20W to 08N35W to
07N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 09N 
between 18W and 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to South
Texas near the mouth of the Rio Grande. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active ahead of this front. A few additional
showers and thunderstorms are active over the southwest Gulf along
95W from 21N to 25N, ahead of a trough over the Bay of Campeche
and associated with the subtropical jet active near the area.
Farther east, 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 27N86W. This
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4
ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake
the aforementioned weak front early Wed while reaching from the 
western Florida Panhandle to 28N90W to NE Mexico. The cold front 
will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into 
Fri, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas
into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may 
accompany the fronts. Moderate to fresh return flow under strong 
high pressure is forecast by Sat afternoon. Another front may move
into the NW waters early Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area continues to force fresh to 
strong easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale
force winds off the coast of Colombia, with mostly moderate to
fresh trade winds elsewhere across the eastern and central
Caribbean. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated 8 to 11 
ft seas near the strong to gale-force winds. Combined seas are 5 
to 7 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle 
to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft are observed over the northwest 
Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the
far southwest Caribbean from Panama to off Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia 
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas 
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected 
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, 
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along 
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front 
will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong 
winds and rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and 
wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat with conditions gradually 
improving for the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N52W to 28N70W, where it 
becomes a stationary front that extends to 28N78W. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are active north of the
front east of 65W. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas
are noted south of 25N between 65W and 75W, with moderate E to SE
winds and 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere east of 55W. Farther east,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough from
22N to 30N between 43W and 47W. Another trough is southwest of the
Canary Islands from 20N28W to 27N23W. Numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are also active on the north of the trough from 26N 
to 28N between 20W and 25W. Fresh E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas noted
north of the trough from 27N to 30N between 23W and 30W. Gentle to
moderate NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of
55W.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the front 
will continue eastward and reach from 26N55W to 25N70W by early 
Wed, while the western portion dissipates. High pressure located 
off New England will shift eastward following the front, 
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate 
seas over the region, locally rough near 55W. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger 
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed 
night. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of 
Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and 
building seas through Fri night. A tightened pressure gradient in 
the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds and 
building seas across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually 
diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$
Christensen