000
AXNT20 KNHC 292353
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 18.5N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 07N to 13N between 25W and 36W. 

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 07N to 14N between 39W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted 
at this time in association with this wave. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 17N to 19N between 78W and 80W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues 
southwestward to 10N37W to 07N48W. No ITCZ has been depicted in 
the latest surface analysis. The convection across the area has 
been described in the Tropical Wave section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Upper level troughing is supporting scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection over the central and southwestern Gulf,
and gusty winds and rapidly building seas are likely near 
thunderstorms. Elsewhere, additional thunderstorms are occurring 
in the far northeastern basin as a 1014 mb low prevails over 
southeastern Georgia. A 1022 mb high is centered offshore of 
southeastern Texas, supporting mainly gentle to moderate NE to E 
winds over the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche
as a diurnal trough moves westward through the region. Seas of 1 
to 3 ft are noted over the basin, as observed via altimeter 
satellite data and buoy data. 

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the 
basin through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate 
breezes and slight to moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous thunderstorms are occurring over the northwestern basin,
generally north of 15N and west of 75W, as an upper level trough 
prevails over the region and a tropical wave moves westward 
through the central Caribbean. Moderate trade winds are noted over
much of the basin as a moderate pressure gradient persists 
between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over 
northern Colombia. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are occurring over the south-central Caribbean, with the 
strongest winds noted offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Seas of 3 to 5 ft seas are occurring in the eastern 
Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft seas in the northwestern basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds
and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with winds
pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally moderate 
winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied
by scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move 
through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and 
through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun, 
reaching the eastern portion of the central Caribbean late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough in the central Atlantic extends from 31N61W to 29N68W,
branching from a complex low pressure system centered near 35N56W.
An additional low, centered near 25.5N65.5W extends a trough to
the northeast and southwest. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring near these features, north of 22N
between 55W and 70W. Farther west, a 1020 mb high is centered near
23N72W, and the pressure gradient between this feature and low
pressure over Colombia is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE
winds north of the Greater Antilles into the southern Bahamas.
Elsewhere, locally moderate SE winds are noted offshore of eastern
Florida as a 1014 mb low prevails over southeastern Georgia.
Otherwise, ridging extends through much of the rest of the
tropical Atlantic, stemming from a 1032 mb high centered north of
the area near 46N22W. Mainly moderate trade winds and moderate
seas prevail south of 25N. Farther east, fresh to locally strong
NE winds are noted offshore of northwestern Africa near the Canary
Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast waters through the period, 
supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas over the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may 
bring fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds north of the
Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night, then possibly to the 
waters between Hispaniola and the central Bahamas Sun and Sun 
night.

$$
ADAMS