294 
AXNT20 KNHC 081043
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 54W from 
French Guinea to 11N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
along the wave axis, west of the wave to Suriname, and east of the
wave over northern Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 09N21W, where it transitions into the ITCZ and 
extends from 09N21W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted within 90 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging continues to extend westward from the Atlantic to
across Florida and the central Gulf waters. A surface trough is 
analyzed over the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds prevail E of 90W, while moderate to fresh SE 
winds are noted W of 90W. Moderate seas cover the whole basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend 
its ridge into the eastern Gulf through today, then build modestly
westward into the central Gulf through the middle of the week. 
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, with 
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and south- 
central Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in South America, is supporting fresh 
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the 
central basin along with moderate to rough seas. Gentle to 
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and 
western Caribbean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident south of 17N and west of 80W, affecting the coasts of
Honduras and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the region will prevail 
through the middle of the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to
strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the 
central basin, spreading westward through the middle of next week,
except in the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Moderate 
to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build to rough 
with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic 
by early next week through at least mid-week.

Of Note: A potential for significant rain continues into early 
next week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast 
Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the 
area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this 
time. Please refer to your local meteorological office for more 
details. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

Fo the western Atlantic, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are 
noted north of 27N and west of 65W due to a somewhat tide 
pressure gradient over the area. The tropical Atlantic is 
dominated by high pressure of 1029 mb centered near the Azores. 
Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail north of 20N.
South of 20N, moderate to fresh trades prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build modestly
W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then weaken 
slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each 
afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with
pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere 
south of 22N. These winds will weaken somewhat mid-week as the 
high weakens. 


$$
ERA