000
AXNT20 KNHC 120930
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0920 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde
Islands, extending from 05N to 17N with axis near 28W, moving 
westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen near this
wave.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles, extending from 06N to
17N with axis near 57W, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from 06N to 16N between 50W
and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean, south of Hispaniola,
with axis near 72W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the Dominican 
Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W, then curves 
southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N30W 
to 05N41W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south 
of the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N between 08W and 31W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident elsewhere from 02N to 10N between
31W and 50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
numerous moderate to strong convection and tstms over the offshore
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, southern Nicaragua and NW Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends SW into the Gulf and
continues to provide moderate to fresh ESE winds over the western
half of the basin and gentle to moderate SE winds elsewhere E of
90W. Over the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is generating
heavy showers and tstms. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to
locally strong winds in this area of convection. Wave heights are
3 to 6 ft west of 90W while altimeter data show 1 to 3 ft seas
across the eastern basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain across the Gulf 
through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
are expected each afternoon and evening, north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough 
develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly 
reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are 
forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with 
gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda High continues to support fresh trade winds over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea along with moderate to rough
seas. Moderate to fresh easterlies and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
elsewhere across the SW and NW basin, including the Gulf of 
Honduras.  

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern 
South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to
rough seas over most of the central and west-central basin 
through early next week. Winds will pulse and reach fresh to 
strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight
hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected Mon and Mon 
night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in 
the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected 
through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the 
Tropical North Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate 
to rough seas with these winds will subside late Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda High of 1027 mb and its associated ridge dominates 
the entire subtropical Atlantic waters and extends into the
tropics to about 14N. Mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
across the subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere W of 65W, except for moderate
to fresh in the Great Bahama Bank, approaches of the Windward 
Passage and N of Hispaniola. Seas are moderate across these
waters. Between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands,
winds are moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are 5 to 8 ft.
Lastly, fresh trades between 45W and the Lesser Antilles support 7
to 8 ft seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high and related
subtropical ridge will be the main feature controlling the wind 
regime throughout the region through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to 
strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during 
each late afternoon and at night through early next week. 

$$
Ramos