064 
AXNT20 KNHC 191047
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W from 05N
to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 
06N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west 
of the wave from 05N to 09N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W south of 
20N to inland eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua and northern 
Costa Rica. and recking to the eastern Pacific near 07N. It is 
moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection lags the wave over southern Nicaragua and over Costa 
Rica and adjacent waters.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
West Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward passing to 
just south of the Cabo Verde Islands to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N36W to 07N45W and to near the coastal border of Guyana and 
06N57W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave along 
33W, numerous moderate to strong convection is seen within 60 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 34W-42W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 45W-49W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ 
between 50W-57W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Modest high pressure extend westward from the western Atlantic 
across Florida and west-southwestard toward the Texas/Mexico
border. This feature controls the general wind flow across 
the Gulf, providing for gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds over the northern Gulf, where seas are 3 ft or less. 
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are over the southern 
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Straits of Florida. Seas 
over this section of the Gulf are 3 to 5 ft.

satellite imagery shows isolated showers and thunderstorms over 
some sections of the central and eastern Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the modest surface ridge will prevail across 
the Gulf through the middle of next week, producing gentle to 
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to strong
northeast to east winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula 
each afternoon and evening through early next week as a trough 
develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche
at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and 
low pressure in Colombia low is currently sustaining fresh to 
near gale northeast to east trades and seas of 9 to 14 ft over the
south-central section of the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong 
northeast winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are over noted over the 
southwestern part of the basin while moderate to fresh with 
locally strong northeast to east winds are over the north- central
sections of the basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds, except 
for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in east swell from 15N to 18N between 
72W and 80W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the Windward 
Passage. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh east winds are 
in the Gulf of Honduras along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection 
over southern Nicaragua and over Costa Rica and adjacent waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the south-central 
basin will persist through early next week. Near gale-force winds 
with brief gusts to gale force along with rough seas are expected
offshore of northern Colombia this morning. Fresh to locally 
strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will continue 
in the Windward Passage through tonight. At the same time, expect
fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish 
slightly Sun into next week as the western Atlantic high pressure
weakens. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The gradient related to high pressure of 1028 mb near 28N75W is 
supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to 3 ft seas north of 26N 
between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Fresh to locally 
strong east to southeast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the 
waters of the southeastern Bahamas. Otherwise, mostly moderate 
northeast to east winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are over the waters 
from 09N to 31N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds along with 
seas of 4 to 7 ft remain.

satellite imagery shows isolated showers and thunderstorms
confined to over the waters from 21N to 31N between 58w and 
69W. A large mid to upper-level low is over this part of the 
area. At the surface, a trough is analyzed from 31N54W to
27N60W and to 31N63W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
the weather pattern across the western Atlantic through early 
next week. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail 
along with moderate seas. The fresh to locally strong winds and 
moderate seas are expected north of Hispaniola to about 22N, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage, will diminish
late tonight. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into next week as 
high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic. 

$$
Aguirre