000
AXNT20 KNHC 192251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N20W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 09N60W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 03N-10N and E of 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the Yucatan
Channel, including part of the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a 
broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are present across 
the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are 
found at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
and slight to moderate seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and 
slight to moderate seas will occur over the basin through Fri 
morning as high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and 
southeastern U.S. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds 
will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern 
Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening through this weekend. 
Fresh to strong SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf 
late this weekend as low pressure strengthens in the south- 
central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection over 
the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage and Lesser 
Antilles. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough
is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the 
Caribbean coast of Panama mainly S of 10N. Moderate to fresh NE 
to E trade winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central 
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with moderate seas 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds 
are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia tonight, and again by 
this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front meanders west-southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N56W to the northern Bahamas. A surface
trough is analyzed from 31N52W to 25N61W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is found near the front/trough north of 21N 
between 50W and 65W. This activity is also supported by an upper-
level low in the area. Another stationary front curves 
southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 30N35W to 
24N42W. Scattered showers are present up to 60 nm along either 
side of this boundary. Another surface trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection from 20N to 22N between 66W-71W.

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted north of 25N 
between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE 
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and through the 
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the 
northeastern Gulf of America and the southeastern U.S. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of 27N and east of 
65W through Thu as a complex low pressure system forms. Moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through Fri. Increasing SW winds and building seas may occur 
offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front 
moving through the southeastern U.S. 

$$
ERA