976 
AXNT20 KNHC 191009
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W and extends  
to 14N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N52W. 
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either 
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface 
trough is analyzed over eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to 
moderate mainly E winds and slight seas are present across the 
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered near northern Florida 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas 
through Sat night across the basin. Low pressure over northern 
Mexico may lead to winds increasing to fresh speeds in the NW Gulf
Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southward from far western Cuba to around
20N85W. Associated convection has dissipated early this morning.
Another surface trough extends southward from Puerto Rico to near
12N. It is inducing scattered moderate convection just E of its
axis within about 150 nm of Puerto Rico. The eastern extension 
of the Pacific's monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate 
convection across the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-81W.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate most of the basin, except for
the NW, where gentle E winds prevail. Locally strong winds are
ongoing offshore Colombia. Slight seas prevail in the NW
Caribbean, with moderate seas elsewhere, peaking around 7 ft
offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, the surface trough in the NW basin will 
dissipate today as it drifts west into the Yucatan Channel. With 
high pressure to the north and the Colombian low to the south, 
mainly moderate trades will dominate through the weekend, with 
nightly pulses of locally strong winds possible offshore Colombia.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N58W
to just E of the NW Bahamas. To the E, a surface trough extending
from 31N52W to 26N58W is inducing numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection within about 90 nm ahead of its axis. Locally
gusty winds are likely associated with the stronger thunderstorms.
Over the central Atlantic, another stationary front along 39W to
the N of 22N is inducing scattered moderate convection along and
within 60 nm E of it. Away form convection, winds N of 20N are
moderate or weaker, with moderate to locally fresh trades
dominating waters S of 20N. Seas E of 65W are 5 to 8 ft, with 2 to
5 seas to the W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the western stationary front will
mostly dissipate into tonight, but a portion of it will persist 
along 55W from about 23N northward through late week. Gentle 
breezes will prevail across area waters, with mainly slight to 
moderate seas. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off 
northeast Florida Fri night through Sat ahead of a weak cold front
moving into the southeast U.S. 

$$
Konarik