386 
AXNT20 KNHC 151659
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 11N15W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 16N between 20W and 31W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

1021 mb high pressure centered over N Florida provides for light
to gentle E winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin, except in the
Yucatan Channel where seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds will 
dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the 
central basin this weekend. The ridge will slide a bit east for 
the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become 
more dominate, reaching fresh speeds across the western Gulf by 
the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the SW
Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 12N between 76W and
82W. This convection is related to a surface trough in the western
Caribbean offshore Nicaragua and Honduras and the extension of 
the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Fresh winds are reported by 
satellite scatterometer in the Lee of Cuba, with 3-5 ft seas. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail 
across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough will meander offshore Honduras
and Nicaragua today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Fresh NE
to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by 
tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. 
This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to 
moderate trade winds across the basin for the first half of next 
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 23N74W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 25N to 30N between 50W to 56W, mainly ahead of
the front. Satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate or 
weaker winds near the front. 1013 and 1014 mb low pressures are
centered near 12N44W and 12N37W. Scatterometer indicates moderate
or weaker winds near these low pressures. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. North of
27N, seas exceed 8 ft due to mixed swells generated north of the 
area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
stall by tonight from near 27N55W to N of Hispaniola, where it 
will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW 
to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead
of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast 
region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will 
periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week.

$$
Mahoney