503 
AXNT20 KNHC 020300
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and 
continues to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N48W to 
06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed from 04N to 08N between 10W and 25W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 1011 mb low
pressure over the north-central Gulf near 28N90W to 28N94W to near
Tuxpan, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from 
28N to 29N between 85W and 90W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds 
and 5 to 6 ft seas are ongoing over the far northeast Gulf north 
of the front. Fresh N to NE winds and seas to 6 ft are also noted 
over the far northwest Gulf off the coast of Texas. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the low pressure over the north-central Gulf 
will move quickly northeastward tonight, resulting in fresh to 
strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the associated 
frontal boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue. 
Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the 
basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by Wed, as 
another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead,
another cold front will enter the NW waters late Thu, reaching 
from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is moving slowly westward into the western
Atlantic and through the Leeward Islands. This is disrupting the 
influence of the subtropical ridge north of the area, and is 
resulting in light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the 
far eastern Caribbean. The ridge is still influencing the central 
Caribbean where moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 4 to 6 ft 
seas are evident. Fresh to locally strong NE winds may be 
impacting the Windward Passage. Light to gentle NE to E breezes 
and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few 
showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama, but fair 
conditions prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the trough will move to the north of Mona
Passage through late Wed, then stall and dissipate. The ridge will
then re-establish north of the area into Thu, supporting moderate
to fresh trade wind flow across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri with seas building slightly. Gentle breezes and slight
seas will persist over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida
and north of the northern Bahamas west of 77W, associated with a
stationary front that extends from 30N78W to near Fort Pierce, 
Florida. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed a surface
trough along roughly 61W, north of the Leeward Islands to 27N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end
of the surface trough, from 22N to 30N between 55W and 63W. Weak 
ridging between the trough and the front is supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 60W, except for 
fresh NE winds near the entrance to the Windward Passage. 
Elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean, fresh to strong 
E to SE winds are noted east of the trough. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in
fresh swell from 20N to 27N between 45W and 60W, and 6 to 9 ft 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly 
winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of 
74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf 
of America to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach 
the waters off the northeast Florida coast late on Tue, extending 
from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to 
central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly 
winds and rough seas follow the surface trough currently located 
near 61W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just 
N of Puerto Rico on Tue, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds 
and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over 
the next couple of days. 

$$
Christensen