000
AXNT20 KNHC 020430
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 22N, moving 
westward around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted S of 23N between 66W and 71.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
to near 10N22W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 10N22W to 05N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N, and west
of 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from 26N89W to 27.5N97.5W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is noted north of 25.5N
and west of 90W. Recent satellite derived winds show winds near
gale force within the strongest convection. Surface ridging 
dominates the rest of the basin with light to gentle winds. 
Slight seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will lift N tonight as
a cold front enters the NW Gulf reaching from the Florida 
Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico early Sun, then from near Sarasota, 
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Mon, clearing the 
basin Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to 
locally rough will follow the front through Mon. High pressure 
will then follow the front supporting a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow by the middle of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the
eastern Caribbean.

A surface trough is analyzed from SE Cuba to offshore Nicaragua
and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found 
along the trough and over the SW Caribbean, mainly W of 78W. 
Latest ASCAT data depicted moderate to fresh trades prevailing 
across areas E of 80W with gentle to moderate NE winds occurring 
across areas W of 80W. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from eastern Cuba to
offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica will linger through tonight 
with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds just W of it. Fresh 
to locally strong E to SE winds are in the wake of a tropical 
wave, currently moving across the eastern Caribbean, with axis 
near 69W. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean tonight
into Sun as the wave continues to move westward across the 
central Caribbean through Mon. Moderate to locally rough seas will
be associated with the wave. A cold front will to move across the
NW Caribbean Mon night into early Tue while the above mentioned 
tropical wave is expected to merge with the frontal boundary or 
dissipate. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is analyzed across the W Atlantic from 31N47W 
to the SE Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted along the front. To
the E, another stationary front is analyzed across the eastern 
Atlantic from a 1012 mb low near 31N27W to 22N39W. A pre-frontal 
trough is also analyzed from 25N29W to 18N41W. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 23N between 18W and 29W.
Latest scatterometer and altimeter data indicated fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas following the front. Elsewhere across the
Atlantic, the pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high near 
26N55W and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate 
to fresh trades and moderate seas across most areas S of 22N. 
Areas north of 22N and away from the fronts are seeing gentle to 
moderate trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough from 31N65W to the
SE Bahamas will move westward through Mon. Rough seas N of 29N 
and E of 65W will shift E through early Mon. A cold front is 
forecast to impact the region early next week, slowly shifting SE 
and reaching from 31N70W to the central Bahamas by Tue. Fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas will follow the front through late 
Tue. The front will weaken and wash out through midweek with 
improving marine conditions.

$$
KRV