000
AXNT20 KNHC 092047
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and continues 
southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N37W
to near 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N 
to 10N between 26W and 40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Fresh to locally
strong winds are over the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are SE
of a line from N Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the SE
Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft are
noted. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will 
continue in the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through 
this evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the 
northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to 
NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin 
by Wed ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United 
States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early 
Thu, with winds turning to the N in the wake of the front. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected 
over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high 
pressure prevails over the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along 
the stationary front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate 
seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today. 
Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop 
over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between the Colombian low, a stalled front in the northwest basin
and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will 
pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may 
reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the 
passages into this weekend. A new E swell will support rough seas 
over this region Wed through this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda through the 
central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted along the front. Fresh to near gale winds are N of 27N
and E of the front to 46W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and
W of the front to 70W. Seas of 8-11 ft are over these waters.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere west of the front, with
seas of 4-7 ft, except to 9 ft north of 30W. The remainder of the
discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 27N33W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 8-12 ft range in NW to N swell east of 50W, and 5-7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will progress eastward through the 
central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW 
winds and rough seas will occur north of 28N and east of 60W ahead
of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to 
strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of 
30N and east of 65W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight 
into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand 
southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed,
supporting rough seas north of 27N by late tonight, and north of 
25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible 
north of 30N and east of 70W into Wed afternoon. Seas will slowly 
subside from west to east, west of 65W, into early Thu. Fresh to 
strong SW winds and rough seas will develop offshore of northern 
Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over the 
southern United States. The cold front is slated to push offshore 
early Thu, with fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas expected 
in the wake of the front. 

$$
AL