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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 021050

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1020 mb 
high pressure to the north of the area and 1008 mb low pressure 
over Colombia is leading to strong trade winds over the south- 
central Caribbean. Gale conditions are expected tonight offshore 
Colombia with seas to 13 ft within the gale area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 1014 mb
low in the NW Gulf near 26N94W to near Tamiahua, Mexico. An
earlier ASCAT pass showed gale force N winds occurring in the 
waters offshore of Tampico, Mexico behind the front. These gales 
will reach the waters offshore Veracruz Mexico later this morning 
as the cold front moves southward along the coast of Mexico. Seas 
will build to 10-12 ft this morning. Conditions will improve late 

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected Wed through
Wed night in the western Atlantic, north of 27N, in association 
with an area of low pressure and an attendant cold front. Expect 
gales on both sides of the low and front as they move eastward on 
Wed. By Wed night, the front will extend from Bermuda to the 
central Bahamas. Seas in the area of the gales will build to 12 to
15 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at website
for more details about these Gale Warnings.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N17W to 02N31W to 0N44W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is from 03N-06N between 20W-30W. 


A cold front extends from 28N82W to a 1014 mb low in the NW Gulf 
near 26N94W to near Tamiahua, Mexico. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the front across the north-central gulf waters and
portions of the NE basin while dense fog is being reported behind
the front in the NW gulf. An earlier scatterometer pass showed
gale force winds over the Tampico adjacent waters. See the special
features section for further details. 

The portion of the front extending from Florida to the low will stall
today. The low pressure will drag the cold front in the SW gulf 
to the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening. Gale-force winds 
occurring off the Tampico region will reach the Veracruz area 
later this morning. The front will reach from near Tampa Bay, 
Florida to near NW Yucatan peninsula on Wed and move across the 
SE Gulf Wed night into Thu.


Mid-level ridging dominates the western Caribbean, leading to
subsidence and dry conditions. An upper-level trough extends from
the central Atlantic to the NE Caribbean Sea. This is enhancing
scattered clouds and isolated showers across the eastern Caribbean.

Minimal gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia 
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue to blow elsewhere in 
the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. In the Gulf of 
Honduras, fresh to strong trades will diminish early this evening.
Winds of the same speed are forecast to pulse over Hipaniola 
adjacent waters tonight and Wed night. North swell will continue 
to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of 
the Windward Islands today. A second swell event will reach the 
tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Thu night and continue 
through the weekend. 


A cold front extending from 31N75W to 29N81W will stall from 
27N65W to Cape Canaveral early this evening. Fresh to strong winds
are expected N of this boundary today. The front will transition 
to a warm front in response to low pressure forecast to move off 
the coast of the Carolinas on early Wed morning. The low pressure 
will strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong 
cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front 
will be preceded and followed by strong to minimal gale-force 
winds and building seas. Gale conditions across the northern 
waters are expected Wed and Wed night. In its wake, high pressure 
will build over the area through Fri night.