030 
AXNT20 KNHC 010431
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front enters the far NE
Atlantic waters near 31N19W and continues southwestward to 20N38W,
followed by a shear line to 19N60W. Another cold front enters the
basin near 31N23W to 29N30W and to 31N37W. Scattered showers are
seen north of 28N and between 15W and 30W. A scatterometer
satellite pass from a few hours ago indicate that fresh to strong
cyclonic winds are occurring north of 25N and between the Canary
Islands and 37W. Large N swell generated from the gale force low 
N of the area is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over
the forecast waters north of 27N between 19W and 37W. These very 
rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding through 
late week. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 10N 
between 15W and 45W. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N20W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between 23W and 33W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. No significant
convection is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf waters. 
Moderate or weaker winds are expected through Thu. Fresh west to 
southwest winds will develop over the northern Gulf by late week 
ahead of a low pressure system that will move across the southern 
United States. A cold front will extend from the low across the 
forecast waters, reaching the eastern Gulf on Sun while weakening,
then move to south of the area Sun night. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms may accompany the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from far eastern Cuba to NE Honduras. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are occurring behind 
the front in the NW Caribbean. A surface trough along 72W and 
divergence aloft result in scattered showers affecting Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico and the north-central Caribbean waters. A few showers
are also found north of Panama. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured moderate to locally strong easterly winds in the
south-central and SE Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse in
the south-central Caribbean tonight. A cold front from eastern 
Cuba to eastern Honduras will become stationary from Hispaniola 
to near 15N80W by late on Thu, then weaken and dissipate on Fri. 
Fresh north winds behind the front will diminish north to south 
Fri through Sat. Rough seas in north swell over the Atlantic will
subside by Thu evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on  
significant swell causing very rough seas in portions of the
east-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the SE Bahamas and eastern
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm E 
of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are found
ahead of the front north of 28N and west of 51W. The remainder of
the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds
and moderate seas are found off NE Florida. Meanwhile, moderate 
to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 7-9 ft are
present south of 20N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front in the SW N
Atlantic will weaken as it moves across the eastern offshore 
waters Thu, and while its southern portion becomes stationary. 
Fresh to locally strong southwest winds and rough seas will 
prevail ahead of the front, generally north of 26N, through 
tonight. Fresh to locally strong west winds and rough seas may 
develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thu as a cold front 
passes north of the waters. Weak high pressure will build over the
western tropical Atlantic allowing for moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week. 
Another front will move across the basin starting late on Sat, 
reaching the eastern offshore waters Mon and and Mon night while 
weakening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected 
ahead and behind this front.

$$
Delgado