AXNT20 KNHC 051719
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 1000 nm on
either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 27W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 30N90W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
and 2-3 ft seas prevail across most of the basin. Seas are
reaching up to 6 ft near the northern Mexican coast. No
significant convection are evident from satellite imagery.
High pressure will prevail across the basin through this
evening. A low pressure system is expected develop in the NW
Gulf tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through
Sat evening. High pressure building behind the front will
support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night
through late Tue.
A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
east Cuba near 20N77W to the Yucatan peninsula near 19N86W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while
light to gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds
noted within 90 nm north of the Colombia coast. A surface trough
is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean extending from 16N64W to
09N67W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either
sides of the trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft
north of Colombia.
The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean
through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A
cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night
through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras
Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
over the western Caribbean.
Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
A cold front passes through 31N59W to 27N65W to the southern
Bahamas near 20N74W. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead
of the front N of 23N between 56W-67W. Seas are 5-8 ft near the
front with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW
winds ahead of it.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located near the Azores.
The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary
Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are
transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near
South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde
The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba
early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front through Fri,
then shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat.
A developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central
Florida to Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by
strong to near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front
across the region through early next week. High pressure will
build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of
27N through Tue night.