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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 051719

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W 
to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil 
near 00N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 1000 nm on 
either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 27W. 


A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb 
high centered near 30N90W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds 
and 2-3 ft seas prevail across most of the basin. Seas are 
reaching up to 6 ft near the northern Mexican coast. No 
significant convection are evident from satellite imagery.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through this 
evening. A low pressure system is expected develop in the NW 
Gulf tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through 
Sat evening. High pressure building behind the front will 
support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night 
through late Tue. 


A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from 
east Cuba near 20N77W to the Yucatan peninsula near 19N86W. 
Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer data 
depicts moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while 
light to gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to 
moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds 
noted within 90 nm north of the Colombia coast. A surface trough 
is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean extending from 16N64W to 
09N67W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either 
sides of the trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft 
north of Colombia. 

The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to 
occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean 
through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A 
cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night 
through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras 
Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front 
over the western Caribbean. 

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is 
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in 
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian 
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals 
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW 
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over 
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please 
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for 
more details.


A cold front passes through 31N59W to 27N65W to the southern 
Bahamas near 20N74W. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead 
of the front N of 23N between 56W-67W. Seas are 5-8 ft near the 
front with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW 
winds ahead of it. 

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the 
influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located near the Azores. 
The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary 
Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are 
transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near 
South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde 

The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba 
early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front through Fri, 
then shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. 
A developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central 
Florida to Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by 
strong to near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front 
across the region through early next week. High pressure will 
build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 
27N through Tue night.