000
AXNT20 KNHC 290554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu May 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 55W, S of 15N reaching
Suriname. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the wave 
axis from 15N southward between 52W and 60W. The wave is 
enhancing convection over Suriname and French Guiana.

A tropical wave is moving westward at about 15 kt across the 
central Caribbean. Its axis is along 79W, and extends from 
17N79W to central Panama. No significant convection is associated
with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 14N17W and 
and continues southwestward to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 
07N23W to 04.5N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed along both of these features from 
02N to 10N between 18W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 29N91W to 26N95W to 20.5N97W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough S of
24N and also N of 28N. Scattered showers are occurring in the
central and W Gulf between 24N and 28N. Recent scatterometer data
indicate fresh to strong E to NE winds occurring in the SW Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche, generally S of 24N and W of 87W. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds are occurring across portions of the W Gulf
between the surface trough and 90W and N of 25N, as well as
through the Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds are observed
elsewhere across the basin. Seas are analyzed at 3-6 ft W of 87W,
and 1-3 ft E of 87W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each 
evening through Fri north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the 
eastern Bay of Campeche, as a trough develops daily and drifts 
westward. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and 
moderate seas will occur across the central and western Gulf of 
America, while gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas will 
prevail in the eastern basin, as high pressure persists over the 
northeastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern 
Mexico will maintain hazy conditions across the Bay of Campeche 
and western Gulf through the end of the week. Looking ahead, a 
cold front is expected to move across the northern and central 
portions of the basin Fri night into Sat before stalling. Moderate
to fresh W to NW winds will follow the front across the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical 
wave moving across the basin.

A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge, and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong 
E winds over the south-central Caribbean, with winds near gale 
force in the Gulf of Venezuela, confirmed by recent scatterometer 
data. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are also occurring through 
the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E
winds prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle 
to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over
the south- central Caribbean per altimeter data, and 5 to 8 ft 
elsewhere S of 18N. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the far NW 
Caribbean. Also, an upper level low is aiding the development of 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of 
the central and E Caribbean. Much of this activity is focused 
from Hispaniola southward to Colombia and Venezuela.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will 
occur across the southwestern through central Caribbean, including
through the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Venezuela, 
through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails 
between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds 
may reach near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia late 
tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras into this weekend. Looking ahead,
a tropical wave analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles will track 
across the eastern and central Caribbean through this weekend, 
producing numerous thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas 
surrounding the wave. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical 
wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. 

High pressure of 1028 mb located near 37N24W dominates the 
Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge extending 
southwestward toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle 
winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh E
to NE winds are noted. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N, 
and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N. Farther E, the pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh 
to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands and the Cabo
Verde Islands. Fresh to strong N winds are also noted from 16N to
24N between 17W and 23W. Locally rough seas are within the latter
winds. satellite imagery also shows scattered showers occurring in
a region from 19N to 23N between 53W and 70W, associated with an
upper level low over the Caribbean.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds will pulse south of 25N through Fri as a strong pressure 
gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the 
Colombian low. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are 
expected to develop offshore of Florida on Fri, with winds 
strengthening and expanding eastward to 70W by late Fri, ahead of 
a cold front moving through the eastern United States. Locally 
rough seas will accompany these winds. The cold front is slated to
move offshore into the Atlantic Fri night into Sat, with winds 
turning to the W and weakening behind the front. Looking ahead, 
the front will dissipate this weekend, and high pressure will 
build over the western Atlantic. 

$$ 
Adams