000
AXNT20 KNHC 290554
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu May 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is along 55W, S of 15N reaching
Suriname. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the wave
axis from 15N southward between 52W and 60W. The wave is
enhancing convection over Suriname and French Guiana.
A tropical wave is moving westward at about 15 kt across the
central Caribbean. Its axis is along 79W, and extends from
17N79W to central Panama. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 14N17W and
and continues southwestward to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from
07N23W to 04.5N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed along both of these features from
02N to 10N between 18W and 52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough is analyzed from 29N91W to 26N95W to 20.5N97W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough S of
24N and also N of 28N. Scattered showers are occurring in the
central and W Gulf between 24N and 28N. Recent scatterometer data
indicate fresh to strong E to NE winds occurring in the SW Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche, generally S of 24N and W of 87W. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds are occurring across portions of the W Gulf
between the surface trough and 90W and N of 25N, as well as
through the Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds are observed
elsewhere across the basin. Seas are analyzed at 3-6 ft W of 87W,
and 1-3 ft E of 87W.
For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
evening through Fri north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the
eastern Bay of Campeche, as a trough develops daily and drifts
westward. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas will occur across the central and western Gulf of
America, while gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas will
prevail in the eastern basin, as high pressure persists over the
northeastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern
Mexico will maintain hazy conditions across the Bay of Campeche
and western Gulf through the end of the week. Looking ahead, a
cold front is expected to move across the northern and central
portions of the basin Fri night into Sat before stalling. Moderate
to fresh W to NW winds will follow the front across the NE Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.
A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between
this ridge, and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
E winds over the south-central Caribbean, with winds near gale
force in the Gulf of Venezuela, confirmed by recent scatterometer
data. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are also occurring through
the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E
winds prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle
to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over
the south- central Caribbean per altimeter data, and 5 to 8 ft
elsewhere S of 18N. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the far NW
Caribbean. Also, an upper level low is aiding the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of
the central and E Caribbean. Much of this activity is focused
from Hispaniola southward to Colombia and Venezuela.
For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will
occur across the southwestern through central Caribbean, including
through the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails
between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds
may reach near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia late
tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras into this weekend. Looking ahead,
a tropical wave analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles will track
across the eastern and central Caribbean through this weekend,
producing numerous thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas
surrounding the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles.
High pressure of 1028 mb located near 37N24W dominates the
Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge extending
southwestward toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle
winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh E
to NE winds are noted. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N,
and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N. Farther E, the pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh
to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands and the Cabo
Verde Islands. Fresh to strong N winds are also noted from 16N to
24N between 17W and 23W. Locally rough seas are within the latter
winds. satellite imagery also shows scattered showers occurring in
a region from 19N to 23N between 53W and 70W, associated with an
upper level low over the Caribbean.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds will pulse south of 25N through Fri as a strong pressure
gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are
expected to develop offshore of Florida on Fri, with winds
strengthening and expanding eastward to 70W by late Fri, ahead of
a cold front moving through the eastern United States. Locally
rough seas will accompany these winds. The cold front is slated to
move offshore into the Atlantic Fri night into Sat, with winds
turning to the W and weakening behind the front. Looking ahead,
the front will dissipate this weekend, and high pressure will
build over the western Atlantic.
$$
Adams