000
AXNT20 KNHC 291047
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami 
FL 1215 UTC Thu May 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W S of 15N 
reaching Suriname. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Latest 
satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection ahead of the wave mainly over Guiana and Suriname. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 06N to 11N 
between 52W-and 60W. Isolated showers are from 11N to 15N 
between 51W and 59W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W. It is 
moving westward at about 15 kt. Its axis extends southward to 
central Panama. No significant convection is noted with this 
wave at the present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the NW 
coast of Mauritania through 15N17W and continues south-
southwestward to 07N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ 
extending to 06N30W to 04N30W and to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm north of the 
ITCZ between 40W and 46W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 
36W and 43W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 51W and the NE 
coast of French Guiana.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from near 29N91W to 27N95W to 25N97W.
No significant convection is in the immediate vicinity of the 
trough, however, an area of scattered showers and is to its S
from 22N to 25N between 94W and 98W. Overnight ASCAT satellite 
data passes show fresh E to SE winds over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche, and from 21N to 24N between 88W and 92W. Moderate or 
weaker winds are observed elsewhere across the basin. Seas are in 
the range of 3 to 6 ft W of 87W, and 1 to 3 ft E of 87W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse each 
evening through Fri north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the 
eastern Bay of Campeche, as a trough develops daily and drifts 
westward. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 
moderate seas will occur across the central and western Gulf of 
America, while gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas will 
prevail in the eastern part of the basin under the influence of 
high pressure that is over the NE Gulf. Smoke from agricultural 
fires in southeastern Mexico will maintain hazy conditions across 
the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. 
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move across the 
northern and central portions of the basin Fri night into Sat 
before stalling. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds will follow the 
front across the NE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge, and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong 
E winds over the south-central Caribbean, with winds near gale 
force in the Gulf of Venezuela as confirmed by an overnight 
ASCAT satellite data pass from 0136Z. Fresh to strong E to NE 
winds are also occurring through the Windward Passage and the Gulf
of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail elsewhere, except 
in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are present.
Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the south-central Caribbean
per altimeter data, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere S of 18N. Seas of 3 
to 5 ft are noted over the far northwestern Caribbean. Also,
divergence aloft east of a large upper level-low is aiding in the
development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
across portions of the central and eastern Caribbean. Much of this
activity is focused from Hispaniola southward to Colombia and 
Venezuela.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are 
expected across the southwestern through central Caribbean, 
including through the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela, through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient 
prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north.
Winds may reach near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia
late tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds 
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras into this weekend. Looking 
ahead, a tropical wave analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles near 
57W S of 16N will track across the eastern and central Caribbean 
through this weekend and through the western part of the sea early
next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
expected to accompany the wave mainly as it moves through the 
Lesser Antilles and across the eastern Caribbean. Gusty winds and 
rough seas may occur with some of the showers and thunderstorms.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed well N of the area near 
37N23W, with its ridging stretching southwestward to near 28N38W.
This feature dominates the general weather pattern across the 
basin. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicate light to 
gentle winds along and near the ridge axis, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N and W of about 30W. Moderate 
to fresh NE to E winds are S of 20N, except for fresh to strong 
NE to E winds S of 21N between 71W and 74W, including the entrance 
to the Windward Passage and also within the Windward Passage.
Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N, and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N.
Farther E, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures in W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong northerly 
winds between the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands. Fresh
to strong N winds are also noted from 16N to 24N between 17W and 
23W. Locally rough seas are possible with the latter winds. 
satellite imagery shows an area of scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms that covers the waters from 19N to 23N between 65W 
and 72W. This activity is mostly attributed to a large mid to 
upper-level trough to the W that extends southward to a large mid 
to upper level-low located over the central Caribbean as seen in 
water vapor imagery.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds will pulse south of 25N through Fri as a strong pressure 
gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the 
Colombian low. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are 
expected to develop offshore of Florida on Fri, with winds 
strengthening and expanding eastward to 70W by late Fri, ahead of 
a cold front moving through the eastern United States. Locally 
rough seas will accompany these winds. The cold front is expected 
to move offshore into the Atlantic Fri night into Sat, with winds 
shifting to the W and weakening behind the front. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front. Looking ahead, 
the front will dissipate late Fri or early during the weekend, 
and high pressure will build over the western Atlantic. 

$$
Aguirre